Social Sciences: This year the housing market demand and supply tight housing prices slowed

Absrtact: Yesterday, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Urban Development and environment and social science Literature publishing house jointly published "China Real Estate Blue Book (2010)", forecast this year the real estate market supply and demand will appear tight trend, and the national commercial housing prices down the possibility is small, but house prices will tend to flat. What is the real estate market this year? Can the introduction of a series of real estate policies improve high housing prices?　　Yesterday, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Urban Development and environment and social Science literature published in Beijing, "China Real Estate Blue Book (2010)", forecast this year's real estate market supply and demand will appear tight trend, and the National commercial housing price reduction is unlikely, but house prices will tend to flat. Housing market supply and demand is tight this year although real estate investment in housing commercialization has been increasing since the reform, but the completion of the area and land area for two consecutive years of continuous decline, the blue book that the 2010 market supply to form the expected pressure. The trend estimates that 2009-year sales are within trend and that 2008-year cumulative demand has not been released to a large extent in 2009 years.　　As the macroeconomic environment improved in 2010, consumers ' income expectations began to improve and consumer confidence began to increase. The Blue Book thinks, the economic environment improves also make this year the new construction area of commercial housing will increase compared to the second half of 2009, but on the other hand, the real estate market has a lag period, at the same time under the influence of regulatory policy, the second half of 2009, the expansion of real estate development Enterprises will At the same time, since 2005, the House has been completed more than a few units of sales, and the housing market since the sale of real estate in addition to the 2008 decline has been continuously growing, and has continued to increase momentum.　　So the pressure of supply and demand in 2010 remains tight. State-owned enterprises to push higher prices expected data show that in the 2009 unusually active land market, constantly refresh the "king" record of companies are state-owned or state-controlled enterprises, accounted for more than 70% of the proportion. Especially in the government under the stimulus of 4 trillion yuan, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises have a high incentive to buy.　　Especially in the second half of 2009, state-owned enterprises frequent purchase of high prices, obviously occupy the dominant position of the market.　　In view of this, the Blue Book pointed out that the state-owned and state-controlled enterprises to purchase high prices, strengthen the housing price expectations, not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate industry. The false prosperity created by the state-owned enterprises "land King" record will induce more state-owned funds to flock to the real economy and produce serious "blood-pumping effect".　　Moreover, the increase in the market share of the property sector by the state-owned enterprises with credit and financing advantages will also be a hidden danger for future financial risks. Control measures not "hit the point" blue Book, in the real estate market supply and demand is tight, the ordinary residents purchase difficulties, the real estate market cover plate reluctant, land idle, speculation and other phenomena still exist. Therefore, the real estate control mode is still not mature, some policies not only can not play a role, but also will cause the opposite effect. 20The reason why house prices and land prices rose sharply in 09, can be said that the real estate control measures not in place in time, the real estate control means can not be the point has a great relationship.　　Therefore, the regulation method and means need to innovate urgently.　　Li Jingguo, chief of the Blue Book and real estate Research Department of the Academy of Social Sciences, said that the new "country 10" policy to curb unreasonable demand, especially to curb speculative demand, should be a long-term policy, rather than short-term measures, once the measures stop, it is possible to replicate 2009 years after the market madness scenario. "Personally, the central government has a lot of policy, the implementation of good will be able to solve the problem, the key is to look at the supporting policies," said Wang Lin, deputy director of the Center for Policy Research at the Ministry of Housing construction.　　This also with the Chinese real Estate Industry Association vice President and Secretary-General Zhu Zhengyi's views coincide: Make policy as far as possible, maintain policy continuity, to avoid 2008, 2009 of the two-year policy of greater volatility. Chao Song, director of land Surveying and Planning Institute of China's Ministry of Lands and Resources, said that the country's recent series of policies, at present, still belong to emergency control measures.　　But behind the policy, there is a need for institutional follow-up and overall design of the system. Forecast this year, despite a series of favorable policies, but in view of the tension between supply and demand, the Blue Book, the 2010 National housing price reduction is unlikely, the tension of the supply and demand factors will promote the price of the uplink.　　But compared with the rapid growth of 23.6% in 2009, this year's housing prices will slow down in the consolidation, the year-on-year increase in housing prices to show a trend from high to low. Li Jingguo said that despite many factors pushing up house prices, prices rose to a high level in 2009, and some cities, especially hot cities, have hit even more than the average home buyer.　　With strong government policy, easy credit environment will be moderately tightened, investment speculative demand will be curbed, so 2010 housing price rise in space will be limited. The Blue Book believes that if the 2010 macroeconomic policy and real estate regulation policy unchanged, then China's real estate prices will not be a big change, the focus of the city because of home purchase tight, house prices rise, the possibility of a sharp reduction, urban housing prices will continue to grow, but this situation with the introduction of the policy may If macroeconomic policy changes in 2010, tightening fiscal and monetary policy, especially tightening the currency, tightening credit, the second half of hot cities will develop rapidly, the possibility of a downward adjustment, the rate of two or three of urban housing prices slowed down, if the 2010 tightening the currency, and increased real estate regulation, The introduction of too violent real estate measures, 2010 National Real estate prices will be curbed, hot city housing prices in the second half will be lowered, two or three types of urban real estate will be slowed down.