Songcheng shares valuation ice fire double day without hindrance to the agency relay buy

Listed less than half a month, but there are 20 securities research report concern.　　As a "theme park + Tourism culture Performance" concept of the first listed companies, Songcheng shares (300144, closing price of 65.18 Yuan) has received unprecedented attention. The catch is that, although brokerages are divided over the next year's valuations. But since the listing, the agency has been on the 4 consecutive trading day debut billboard, the cumulative purchase amount of up to 160 million yuan, the valuation of "two days" is still standard December 9, the Songcheng shares on the debut of 22% to 64.49 yuan, far exceed the average forecast increase of 11%, The dynamic P/E ratio is 56.6 times times higher than the tourist hotel industry's average price-earnings ratio of about 38 times times. If the first show is a drop in the glasses, then the relay buying of the agency will be more "power". On the day of the listing, 3 institutional seats appeared in the trading seats, the total purchase of 119 million yuan; December 10, due to the turnover rate reached 20%, 1 institutional seats were disclosed to buy 12.8143 million yuan, 13th and 14th, 2 of the institutional seats to buy 16.94 million yuan and 12.78 million yuan respectively.　　The reporter found that only one agency seat on 13th sold 12.95 million yuan. "Songcheng shares have become one of the standards of institutions," a brokerage researcher said, "On the one hand, in the direction of the market is not clear, the tourism performing stock is a good defensive target; On the other hand, the company's unique concept is highly speculative. According to statistics, as of Wednesday closed, the total amount of institutional seats to buy 160 million yuan, accounting for the total turnover of 4%.　　In addition to institutions sought after, the big money to buy more seats. However, the agency's preference for Songcheng shares still cannot conceal the seller's "Ice-fire double Day" of its 2011 valuation. According to the Oriental Wealth data show, look up, Huatai Securities believe that next year the shares should be in 48~57 times, Guotai said in the 50~60 times; looking down, founder Securities considered reasonable valuations at 34~44 times. China Merchants Securities only gives the valuation range of 30~35-times PE.　　At present, the stock has a dynamic earnings ratio of 55 times times, far more than the tourist hotel industry, the average price-earnings ratio of about 38 times times. It is worth mentioning that, despite the difference in valuations, the seller's forecast for next year's earnings per share (EPS) is not big. Including Everbright, Guo and other 12 securities companies to give the 2011 forecast EPS range of 1.24 yuan ~1.38 yuan, the average value of 1.31 yuan.　　If according to 38~60 multiples, then Songcheng shares of the theoretical target price in 50~79 yuan, before and after the difference of nearly 30 yuan!　　The high PE faction is optimistic about the epitaxial expansion why Songcheng shares ' performance is expected to be more determined, and the valuations of the brokerages in 2011 are vastly different? A travel researcher of a AA class broker told the Daily Economic news reporter that the reason given Songcheng is far higher than the industry valuation, mainly based on two points of judgment. First of all, the company's "theme park + Cultural performance" mode will be transplanted to Sanya, Hainan next year. Once the model is successfully grafted in different places, valuations will be far more than 50~60 times; second, the 3The project will be completed next year, with results expected to be released on a massive scale in 2012. However, some brokers have raised questions about high valuations. A shanghai-based local brokerage researcher bluntly, the company's high valuations are largely based on the concept of Hainan and other expectations, but there is no small risk. For example, Hangzhou historical and cultural accumulation of deep, this and Songcheng Scenic area, especially the "Songcheng" performance coincide. Unlike Hangzhou, Hainan wins with natural scenery. The company can successfully graft the business model to Hainan, there is considerable uncertainty.　　It can be said that the current high valuation reflects some of the big money of the Bo short psychology. What is the "Hainan halo" on the head of Songcheng shares?　　is the institution's continuous buying ready for the final shipment? This week, the daily economic news reporter called Songcheng, the company's chief executive, said the Hainan Sanya project should be completed next October. The company created the project is mainly optimistic about the Sanya night market. The data show that the average visitor spends more than 3 days in Sanya, more than 1 days in Hangzhou. At the same time, Sanya Project script and other software work has been basically completed. It is noteworthy that the Hainan project will be aimed at Sanya and Hangzhou, the regional differences are adjusted, but the operating model continues the "theme park + cultural performing" mode.　　As for the specific adjustment details, it is not convenient to disclose. A veteran brokerage industry analyst to the "Daily economic news" reporter pointed out that Songcheng shares of the bright spot is operating steadily and performance growth rate, giving the company 40 times times next year PE is more appropriate. But because of the excessive popularity of funds, valuations are indeed a little high. Given the expansion of the company in the future, the general institutions will give the 25%~30% premium, that is, the final valuation should be about 50 times times. In addition, as 3 of the investment projects and Sanya Park performance may exceed expectations, do not rule out future sellers may increase performance forecasts. Therefore, the organization of large shipments is not very likely, but the short-term and large lifting space is not big.