Successful commissioning of oil shale in Liaoning Province has no profit contribution this year

"The company's Jilin Huadian Oil shale project has indeed been tested successfully," August 30, Liaoning into a large (600739.　　SH) The director of the office confirmed to reporters. The move means that Liaoning is a big step away from the shadow Company of GF Securities. However, the director said that only small quantities of oil output, only to show that the company's technology has matured, can be used for production. "The end of August to the end of this year, will be repeated commissioning, for mass production to prepare." Real production is not sure until next year.　　"The oil shale project is not going to make a contribution this year," he stressed, as yields will be generated after a period of production. The progress of Liaoning oil shale is obviously lagging behind the expectations of the securities dealers. Earlier, several researchers gave a 2010-year advance estimate of the performance contribution and made a more optimistic forecast for 2011. But the reality may be that its contribution to the 2010-year performance is zero.　　In addition, in the interim results of the conference, Liaoning to the big side of the "first production time should be in the second half of next year," the answer, 2011 its real profits will be greatly discounted.　　August 30, Liaoning into a big low open high, the highest increase of 1.53%, 0.83%, 29.07 yuan.　　60 dollar break-even point public data show that oil shale is a high ash dense thin layer of organic sedimentary rock containing organic matter, which can obtain shale oil after pyrolysis (dry distillation) under the condition of isolating air, and is known as "artificial petroleum" as the fuel rod or further processed into gasoline, diesel and downstream petrochemical products. According to EIA statistics, the current global 33 countries shale oil up to 410 billion tons. The 2004-2006 new round of oil and gas resources evaluation results show that China buried deep 1000m to shallow shale resources of 719.94 billion tons, proven reserves of more than 30 billion tons, ranked fourth in the world.　　Fushun mining Group Shale refinery is currently the only large-scale enterprises engaged in the use of shale to extract shale oil, is the scale of the annual processing of 6 million tons of shale, design annual output of 180,000 tons of shale oil. At present, the exploitation method of oil shale has been developed from the original ground distillation method to the advanced underground Conversion Technology (ICP). At present, the main process in China is still more traditional distillation.　　The oil shale refinery of Fushun mining group uses the dry distillation method, but the Huadian project of Liaoning Cheng da Jilin adopts icp+ dry distillation method, and the first phase plans to process 3 million tons, and the output of shale oils is 250,000 tons. "Oil shale mining technology has been more mature, there is no technical risk, its economic value is the key to cost control," China Merchants Securities researcher Hongjin said. In terms of current technology, according to the experience of Estonia for 2000 years, the development and refining cost of each barrel of oil shale is about $40, which is economically significant only when the crude oil price is above 25 USD/barrel and the heavy oil price is above 95 USD/ton. "China's current shale oil production cost of about 1500-2 per ton000 yuan, according to the experience of Liaoning, shale oil exploration and development completely cost about 60 USD/barrel, "said Ying Xiaodong, chief analyst of Citic Securities and petrochemical industry." Hongjin said that the cost of oil shale includes the cost of mining and distillation, taking into account the rate of recovery. From 2006, the Development and utilization plan of oil shale in Yitong one Shulan basin, the average mining cost of a ton of oil shale is between 55-65 yuan/ton, the distillation cost is roughly 60 yuan/ton, the total cost is about 120 yuan/ton, and the Huadian of Liaoning into a large shale is buried in the underground of 200-300 meters,　　According to the expert's preliminary estimate, its mining cost is 120 yuan per ton-160 yuan.　　Another issue closely related to production costs is the yield problem, that is, how many tons of oil shale can be processed into a ton of fuel oil. Hongjin said that the first factor is the grade, that is, oil shale, from the current grasp of information, the average grade of Huadian region should be around 10%; the second factor is the utilization ratio of the shale, not all of which are mined, such as Fushun furnace, It may only take advantage of the 12mm-75mm between the thickness of the oil shale, which is roughly around 80%, and the third factor is the yield, "we assume 75% here." Comprehensive calculation, roughly comprehensive yield of 6%, that is, 16.7 tons of oil shale to produce a ton of fuel oil.　　However, Liaoning Cheng Dong's secret office people told reporters that the company's internal estimated yield slightly higher: "1.5 million tons of rock ore corresponding to 100,000 tons of oil." Hongjin stressed, "in 6% of the yield and 150 yuan/ton of mining costs, the cost of producing 1 tons of shale oil is 2500 yuan, about the price of crude oil 55-60 USD/barrel." "Real profit contribution short-term weak current China's fuel oil price about 4400 yuan/ton, the production of 1 tons of shale oil profit of about 1900 yuan." "Our latest bid price for shale oil is 4600 yuan/ton." "30th, Fushun mining Group shale refinery sales department people told reporters. But the price is not static. "The highest ex-factory price this year is 5400 yuan/ton, our ex-factory prices are adjusted according to the international market, with the cost of a certain relationship, but not very close," if the price of 5400 yuan, shale oil profit margin is very considerable. However, the reporter noted that April 2009, the factory shale oil online Quotes 3256 yuan/ton, the actual transaction at 3050 yuan/ton.　　Visible shale oil price fluctuations are also large, profitable elasticity. Guotai analyst Static, who has long followed Liaoning's large shale-oil project, said that according to current progress, the Huadian oil shale project will produce 20.25 million tonnes of shale gas next year.　　Under the current oil price, the neutral expected 2010-2012 net profit is 30 million yuan, 120 million yuan and 360 million yuan, for the big contribution EPS0.03 yuan, 0.13 yuan and 0.40 yuan. Haitong Securities analyst Xie Salt also pointed out that the company's oil shale energy business will be in 2010 years after the beginning of the contribution of 0.06 yuan, because the growth potential to give 35 times times PE, the business value of 2.37 yuan/share. It is noteworthy that, as a result of the rain Huadian oil shale out of the time delay, as well as the late equipment commissioning factors, "Oil shale project this year will be difficult to provide profit support," Liaoning Cheng Dong, the secretary for the secret office told reporters. In addition, August 17 Liaoning into a large interim results telephone exchange, the company Dong Yu Jianyang revealed, "because the oil shale project has not yet been out of fuel, the cost is difficult to calculate." If smooth, 1 phase of 20-25 tons of shale oil production time should be in the second half of next year, the specific point is difficult to judge.　　"Industry insiders pointed out that Liaoning oil shale project profit contribution conservative estimate will start in the second half of next year, if there is delay may lag to 2012 years." And the valuation of China Merchants Securities Hongjin is closer to the actual situation, "We expect the Huadian project can be formed at the end of 2010, the official contribution of profits in 2011, conservatively estimated the reserves of Huadian project for 30 years, in the fuel oil per ton of 4000 yuan and the production cost of 2500 yuan under the assumption, Liaoning Province in the first 4 years, according to the proportion of 40% of the rights and interests of the profit, then with the annual production of shale oil and corporate dividend return to 60%, the annual after-tax net profit of up to 680 million yuan, EPS for 0.75 yuan. 2011-2014 earnings per share of 0.05 yuan, 0.12 yuan, 0.15 yuan and 0.37 yuan respectively. "Hongjin also stressed that, although the future volatility of oil prices, but the probability of falling to the break-even point is small, in the long term energy prices will also be in the rising channel, short-term demand for deep-sea oil extraction can support its valuation."