The agency has argued that the "no bad money" market valuation has risen to 4,000 last year.
Source: Internet
Author: User
Strong is hard to change. June 10, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2816.25 points for the first time 2,800 points, distance of 1820.81 points of the start point has been nearly 1000 points. One of the reasons for the market's strength is a flood of liquidity. However, the factors that led to the change of liquidity in the whole market have emerged. "31 of the listed companies will bring 70 billion ――1000 billion stock supply, once the market has the possibility of turning around, the non-tradable will flee at any time." "An insurance asset manager in Shanghai has warned. Faced with the madness of the market, institutions began to be wary of possible changes in liquidity. Hot money back to emerging markets recently, a large number of international hot money into Hong Kong has led to strong and a a A-share has a certain driving role. 10th, the Hang Seng index rose 4.03%, surpassing the A-share index of 3%. The depreciation of the dollar, rising gold prices and higher yields on US Treasury bonds suggest that investors are worried about forward inflation. The recent rise in Hong Kong's banking system has seen a sharp rise in the HK dollar balance, which was close to HK $260 billion in early June, and interbank lending rates in Hong Kong have fallen to zero. This shows that overseas funds may flow into Hong Kong, and the industry does not rule out the possibility of direct or indirect inflows of hot money into the mainland. Familiar with the importation of excess liquidity there is a resurgence of evidence, the current H price difference in the history of low, some shares of a share price has been lower than H-shares, the two sides of blue chips appear alternately rising situation. CICC's note of liquidity is that it flows from safer dollar assets to riskier emerging markets and energy and commodity markets, leading to a rapid rise in energy, commodity prices and emerging market equities. Clearly, this is not an asset price rally that is underpinned by real demand. "For this, the organization is very clear that the current asset prices are not looking at demand." A fund manager at a joint venture fund company told reporters, "There must be a bubble, and it will be broken, but everyone thinks they can run ahead." Recently, a A-share a strong, obviously with the peripheral market synchronization. As liquidity led to the rise of blue chips, some institutions simply gave the blue chip bubble investment strategy. Galaxy Securities in a recent report that the blue chip is still the main investment direction, can focus on two investment lines, one of which is the main asset bubble, mainly concerned about securities, banks, insurance, petroleum and petrochemical. The size limit will be at any time. Unconsciously, the market valuation level has risen to 4,000 points last year level. At present, the A-share market TTM P/E ratio reached 30 times times, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 near 26 times times, SME board Index 42 times times, on behalf of blue chips on the Shanghai 50 Index is also close to 22 times times, all the shares in the negative after the median price-earnings ratio reached 46 times times. Obviously, this does not match the current real economy, China, the global real economy has not completely out of the quagmire of the economic crisis. And the caution is that, and small and medium-sized market share, blue chip bubble process there is a further development trend.For a A-share market, the reason for irrational rise, "liquidity is only a necessary condition." "The Joint venture fund company believes. The disappearance of market share supply is another reason for the exponential madness. This situation is about to be broken, the IPO is ready to restart. The reporter was informed that the company had not listed a few days ago received the SFC notice, request to submit the final volume of materials. At present, the company has not listed the total number of 31, the total financing scale of about 70 billion ――1000 billion. In addition to the IPO will hedge off the market part of the liquidity, in the rise of the once low-key size limit reduction activities, but also to combat the proliferation of another major factor. "Size limit in February this year, there has been a reduction of small climax, but the market strength, they found that holding can gain greater benefits, after April, the size limit reduction phenomenon is not serious, but this does not mean that they do not accelerate the willingness to reduce, if the market has turned downward trend, They will not hesitate to accelerate the reduction. "A private equity manager in Shanghai told reporters. In June, the stock market amounted to a limit of 160 billion yuan of restricted stocks. According to wind data statistics, April issued size limit reduction announcement of the company, there are 480 million shares were reduced. Since May, a total of 86 listed companies issued reduction announcements, shareholders to reduce the total number of shares reached 635 million shares. According to the average price of the transaction or the value of the stock during the change, the market capitalization is about 5.058 billion yuan. From this see, the size limit has not stopped, with the market strength, the size limit reduction impulse is also increasing. The credit data for May have been identified by the market as a guarantee of continued liquidity expansion, as new funds and credit have shrunk the supply of funds. Although it will not be the same as the 1-3-month increase in the number of new credit days, but if the new credit balance in April and 591.8 billion, the market has been identified as positive liquidity. China Securities Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. June 9, the latest statistics show that last week, the number of new stock accounts in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose to 317,509 households, a 6-week high, the number of new funds opened accounts for 45,098 households. The OTC funds are still entering. But another set of data released at the same time suggests that the market's stock of money is starting to retreat. Data show: As of June 5, positions A-shares account for 48.3308 million households, a week before the fall of 203,000 households, slightly reduced by 0.418%. It is the first time that a share-held account has come down in the past week after a three-week rebound and a record high. The current surge in equities and commodities is mainly due to too much hot money, which is largely the result of the global ultra-low interest rate environment. But the global monetary policy has been in place for more than half a year, central banks need to pay attention to their follow-up, once the release of liquidity to the market, the current situation will change the money. Institutional aspects, on the one hand, the current fund positions generally in more than 80%, the organization's stock funds are not much. The May new fund once ushered in a small climax, the totalA total of 14 new funds listed, and many of the main stock funds. But into the June, the new fund gradually reduced, which also led to a stagnation of institutional incremental funding.
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