The average price of our means of production is expected to increase by 10%-12% this year

Overall balance of supply and demand price shocks upward forecast the overall average price level of China's production material market this year is 10%-12% higher than in 2009. Chen Zhongtao Internal demand growth rate more according to forecast, 2010 China's economic growth will be 9%-10%. In such a macroscopic environment, the development of the capital production market this year, there are the following growth points: first, the rapid growth of investment in fixed assets, steel, cement and other major means of production demand pull the role is still more significant. From the statistical data, the first quarter of this year investment growth is still relatively strong. January-February, urban fixed asset investment increased by 26.6%, of which new fixed asset investment increased by 56.5%, not only the overall investment growth is higher, but also the structure has been optimized, especially a welcome change is that private investment tends to be active. From the investment capital structure, in addition to the national budget, bank loans, the use of foreign capital and the construction unit self-financing other than the first two months of growth of 85.6%, the proportion of the increase to 20.6%, compared with the same period last year and last year, respectively, increased by 5.1 and 3.4%.　　As a result, fixed assets investment will continue to grow rapidly in 2010, and the demand for steel, cement and other major means of production is still significant. Second, industry, especially heavy industry, will continue to grow steadily, supporting the development of the means of production.　　This year is the structural adjustment year, but also the national implementation of the top ten industrial revitalization planning of the 2nd year, with the various policy measures to accelerate the follow-up, will make our country transformation and upgrading, independent innovation and emerging energy industries face greater development opportunities, thus promoting industrial development. From the statistical data, the first quarter of this year, industrial production started well, January-February year-on-year growth of 20.7%, of which heavy industry growth of 23.5%.　　It is expected that the annual industrial production will maintain a steady growth trend, especially the heavy industry will appear to accelerate the growth momentum, the supporting effect of the development of the production material market is increasing. Third, the real estate investment growth rate accelerates, to the production material consumption demand has the important pulling function.　　The real estate industry is one of the important pillar industries of the national economy, its correlation degree is high, and the consumption demand of the main means of production such as steel, aluminum, cement, wood, glass, plastic and so on in China has a more outstanding pulling effect. Four is in the state to encourage the role of consumer Policy, automotive, home appliances, building materials industry will maintain a good momentum of development of the means of production market has continued to pull the role. In the Government's work report this year, Premier Wen stressed the need to actively expand consumer demand, continue to implement and improve the policy measures to encourage consumption, and clearly pointed out that this year will continue to improve home appliances, cars to the old and new countryside policy. According to the forecast, 2010 years of auto production and sales will reach 16 million cars, home appliances sales growth is expected to maintain more than 10%, which will be in China's steel, especially sheet metal consumption has a significant pulling effect.　　In addition, according to industry insiders predict, because of "building materials to the Countryside" policy, 2010 construction steel demand will reach 300 million tons. Five is the development of regional economy, potential healthDemand for production data will turn into real demand. December 3 last year, the State Council approved the "Yellow River delta efficient eco-economic zone development Plan", this year, there are 8 regional economic planning approved.　　The regional economy accelerates the coordinated development, will change the future our country production material region consumption structure, promotes the new consumption growth point formation.　　Combined with the above situation and the use of relevant models, forecast annual sales of means of production will reach 33.8 trillion yuan, a 22% increase from the previous year, excluding the price factor, the actual increase of 13%-15%. Exports are expected to achieve a recovery in the 2010 world economic situation, in general, the 2010 world economy is facing more favorable factors than the adverse factors, the stability of the development is gradually strengthened, the rebound momentum will continue, and will be further consolidated. In combination with domestic and foreign economic research institutions, the author believes that the 2010 global economy will reverse the decline and return to the growth of the road, the growth rate will reach about 3%. Among them, the overall economy of developed countries will grow by about 1.5%, while emerging markets and developing countries ' economy will grow strongly by about 5.5%.　　This upturn in the world economic structure, to expand the production of Chinese goods market exports more favorable. But it must also be seen that the fundamentals of export recovery remain precarious and uncertainties remain high. From the statistics, the first two months of this year export data is not very perfect. Although the year-on-year increase is higher, but the chain has declined.　　In January, China's total imports and exports fell by 15.1% and 16.3% respectively, respectively, 8.9% and 13.7% in February, which shows that China's export rebound situation is not stable, this year, China's export of means of production can not have too many optimistic expectations, domestic demand leading market development of the basic pattern will not change. The price index will show "before High and low" in recent years, China's steel, cement and other industries overcapacity contradictions by the Government management Department of High concern. Affected by this, overcapacity in some sectors of the rapid expansion of production, supply and demand contradictions more prominent situation will be changed. In addition, in the process of speeding up the adjustment of economic structure, the situation of unbalanced development of regional market will gradually change, and the potential market demand will be released continuously.　　Based on this, China's production materials market will maintain the overall supply and demand of the basic balance, the annual supply and demand will remain within 3%.　　From the price trend, as the market supply and demand relationship further improvement and cost support, the overall price level of the means of production this year still has a certain increase in space, the trend will be concussion upward. According to the model forecast, the overall price trend in 2010 showed an upward trend in the first quarter, and gradually recovered steadily after two quarters.　　As a result of the 2009 price trend before the low, by the impact of the change in the base, the price index this year will appear "before the high and low", the first half of the year-on-year increase to maintain double-digit, into the second half of the year-on-year rise to a number, is expected to be the overall annual average price level Uncertain factors should not be neglected although China's capital production market in 2010 before the overall developmentBut because of the complexity of the macroeconomic environment, the uncertainties of market development are still many. From the external environment, we should be wary of the international "four war" against our country. The first is a "traditional trade war" based on anti-dumping and countervailing investigations. The trade war between China and the United States has intensified since last September, when the U.S. government announced a 35% punitive tariff on China's tire imports.　　The trade frictions that other countries have against our country are also increasing. The second is the "currency war", with the exchange rate as the manipulation means. Not long ago, the SNB announced a cut in interest rates and started buying foreign currency to stop the Swiss franc from appreciating, spurring the Swiss franc to record its biggest one-day decline against the euro, the first time a major central bank has formally intervened in currency markets since the BOJ devalued its currency in 2004. Some experts believe that this may induce many international currencies into a vicious circle of competing devaluation.　　In recent years, the United States and other Western countries have repeatedly put pressure on our government, forcing the appreciation of the renminbi, but also for our country to implement a "currency war" as a manifestation of this should cause sufficient vigilance. The third is the "meteorological War and Environment war" with low-carbon economy as manipulation means. Under the background of global warming, low carbon economy, characterized by low energy consumption and low pollution, is becoming a global hotspot.　　Under the new situation of the global low-carbon economy, it can be foreseen that some Western countries may take the protection of climate and environment as the basis, and impose tariffs on our high carbon products through disguised protectionist measures. The four is a "science and technology War" characterized by new energy. The current "New energy revolution" is quietly emerging around the world. At present, Europe and the United States and Japan seize the commanding heights of the new energy revolution, its deeper intention is to build more advanced, more competitive, facing the future infrastructure, in order to reopen the engine of economic growth, and once again dominate the global economic development, reshaping the Global international division of labor System.　　To this trend, we should have scientific foresight, early response, lest our country in the new international division of labor system at the end of disadvantage. At home, we should pay close attention to the following four questions: first, focus on the effective development of domestic demand. From the macroscopic point of view, the basis of supporting economic growth is mainly investment, investment is mainly rely on government-led, public demand is not very active, demand structure is unreasonable, economic independent growth, sustainable growth of the foundation and power is still not stable, expanding domestic demand is still the focus of government macro-control.　　If domestic demand cannot be effectively developed and the structure of demand cannot be improved, the space for the expansion of capital market demand will be greatly limited. The second is to pay attention to the role of circulation on the market can be effectively played. At present, as the means of production market system is not perfect, the leading role of circulation to the market is not prominent, the production material market supply and demand situation often appear abnormal fluctuations. When the economy is high, the intermediate demand and the virtual demand will be amplified by the terminal demand and the real demand, which induces the blind expansion of production and the rapid increase of supply, but once the economic fluctuation and the correction of the potential, the market demand "bubble" will burst, and the contradiction of oversupply will suddenly show, abnormal market volatility is unavoidable.　　In recent years, the domestic steel, coal and other major means of production market in the anti-seasonal and counter-cyclical abnormal fluctuations, is an example. Third, pay attention to the circulation enterprises in the market circulation of the main position and role can be enhanced. In recent years, due to the complex and changeable external environment, the circulation enterprises are difficult to operate. According to the survey of key means of production circulation enterprises, 2009 industry overall loss management, although the second half of the improvement, but the annual operating profit is still 1.8% lower than the previous year.　　In the face of this situation, I hope the relevant departments to pay attention to the introduction of preferential policies, and actively support the production of means of circulation enterprises, especially small and medium-sized development, so as to tide over the difficulties. Four is to pay attention to commodity market price fluctuation risk. The first is by the international "hot money" inflow may bring the price fluctuation risk, beware of "financial attributes" speculative "speculation." The second is the risk of price fluctuation caused by the change of exchange rate. As international commodity prices are priced in dollars, and the volatility of multiple factors is intense, the dollar's exchange rate tends to move more frequently, which will inevitably exacerbate commodity price fluctuations.