The domino effect of speculation: who kidnapped China's banking industry

Chen refined "There is no easier way than real estate to get money." "In the soaring price stimulation, do foreign trade, do business businessmen have to change the body to fry tenants, the real estate industry as a suction gold cave, and constantly coerced the funds." However, the ratio of real estate loans to loan balances is too high, and CBRC officials are aware that the potential risks are prominent.　　Chinese property investors, who have not yet experienced the bursting of the bubble, are likely to have a risk management lesson. Wenzhou Property History August 18, 2001 is Wenzhou's first home purchase group to Shanghai Day. Li Haiyan, the organizer of Wenzhou Evening News, said: "I remember very clearly this day, a total of 157 people, filled three sleeper compartment." I took a horn and walked in front of me, afraid that the people behind could not hear me. "The purchase group stayed in Shanghai for 3 days, sold a 50来 set of houses, worth 50 million yuan."　　The move became the most iconic of the "Wenzhou Fried Housing Group" crossing. In Shanghai before the hot Fry, Wenzhou people in Hangzhou tasted the "fried room" sweetness. 1999, more than 20% of Hangzhou's commercial housing turnover from Wenzhou people.　　A Wenzhou Yu surname boss in Hangzhou west to 2700 yuan/square meters of price to buy 28 sets of commercial housing, 2001 to 4700 yuan/square meters selling, the transaction earned 5 million yuan, the success of the case by Wenzhou people Benzouxianggao, but also widely disseminated media. And Shanghai's wealth turnover speed, more like myth, inspire Wenzhou people's interest. Li Haiyan has organized a number of Wenzhou people to Shanghai to purchase activities. And 2002, known as the head of the FRY Li Haiyan set up hundred surplus real Estate Marketing Planning Co., Ltd., the main business is Wenzhou people in different places.　　Public data show that Li group Wenzhou team, set a three-day turnover of 100 million yuan record. "From 1998 to 2005, Wenzhou people fired a higher Wenzhou after the discovery of Hangzhou can be higher, fried Hangzhou after the discovery of Wenzhou can be higher, and then found that Hangzhou can be fried again."　　Wait until Wenzhou, Hangzhou fried, and stir up the Shanghai, Fry found that Hangzhou can continue to fry ... "a Shanghai real estate industry personage so described that several years Shanghai, Hangzhou, wen three market conditions.　　In about 2003 years, lonely of Wenzhou people to reach the Yangtze River delta beyond the wider world, from Qingdao, Dalian, to Hohhot ili, Haikou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Wuhan, have left their footprints. Beijing's soaring housing prices are a few years behind Hangzhou and Shanghai.　　The second half of 2004, the Beijing real estate market has a significant impact on the node is the arrival of 8 31 deadline.　　Li Haiyan with years of experience has been estimated Wenzhou speculation, she said: "Wenzhou at least 100,000 people in all parts of the country speculation," and the use of funds in the scale of 100 billion yuan. Wenzhou SME Association president Dewen said, digging coal and speculation room is Wenzhou people prefer two investment channels. However, in the coal industry, Wenzhou people have suffered a collective Waterloo. 2002 years or so, the national emergence of energy shortages, wenzhou "Fried Coal Regiment" once control of Shanxi 60% Small coal mine, accounting for the province's total coal production of 1/5,1/20 of the country. Sarge, vice president of Beijing's Zhejiang Chamber of Commerce, said the coal industry was good in the past few years many Wenzhou people run to Shanxi to dig coal, but after 2008 Shanxi coal mining Industry One integration, most of them lost, "Wenzhou a very large shoe factory bosses, investment in small coal mines, investment failure, price fluctuations, an accident, and now face rectification, as the saying goes '　　Nine to compensate ten insufficient ', the shoe factory has accumulated the savings all to put in. But in real estate, investment failure is very few.　　2008 In spite of the real estate industry downturn, some did not sell the property of the Wenzhou people chose to wait and see, to 2009 years, then again ushered in a retaliatory rebound in the market. "There is no easy way to get money from real estate. Sarge said, "Wenzhou people small Business, do clothing, do foreign trade, many are hard years to accumulate the first bucket of gold." But the investment in real estate is not the same, bought a house is thrown in there do not have to take care of it, another year or two years to sell, will be enough to earn several barrels of gold. "Regulation of the bull's-eye central Bank 2010 Monetary Policy Committee member Li, the Tsinghua University at the five crossing of the impression of a deep, he said:" Five crossing prices are too high, leading to Tsinghua Finance Department recruit Teachers competitiveness are problematic. "He believes the housing problem is more serious than the US before the financial crisis. "China's real estate market in less than a year's time, there has been a rapid increase in liquidity, capital chain quickly relaxed, the real estate industry is not short of money, investors have funds, investor sentiment has an important turn, optimism, leading to the real estate industry in less than a year has experienced the past five or six years of development cycle. "For the formation of the bubble mechanism, China Development Research Foundation Deputy Secretary-General shangmin that:" Any bubble will cause market distortions, the stock market 6,000 points, all the money will be poured into the world, all the bubbles are this mechanism, real estate is the same, house prices crazy rise, do industrial, Trade funds are withdrawn to gather in the real estate industry.　　"This can be seen as a big backdrop to this round of macro-control, and the Chinese economy is no longer able to withstand a strong build-up of capital bubbles." In this round of macro-control, the biggest pressure is probably the bank supervision Department. 2009, the National Real estate loan increment 2 trillion yuan, the real estate loan balance accounted for each loan proportion is 17%. Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau Director Yan Analysis, this data than in early 2009, the potential risk of real estate loans is very prominent.　　In Shanghai, the bank loan balance of around 3 trillion in 2009, real estate loans have exceeded 700 billion, accounting for up to 23%, of which personal housing loans accounted for up to 60% of real estate loans. At present, the CBRC asked banks to do the real estate loan pressure test frequency from the year to a quarterly increase.　　Bank of communications said that if house prices fell 30%, the bank's real estate development loan non-performing rate will rise 1%, personal mortgage loan non-performing rate will rise 0.9%. CCB Credit Card Center General manager Zhao Yuzi early in this year's two sessionsOnce talked about, housing prices related to financial security, "the Asian financial crisis and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis caused by the financial crisis and the real estate industry has a great correlation." During the Asian financial crisis, real estate loans in some countries in south-East Asia exceeded 20% of credit, and real estate credit in China actually exceeded that figure. Niemesen, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, further confirmed that 1/3 of the more than 2 trillion new loans that the central bank announced in the 2010-year quarter, or more than 800 billion, were flowing into real estate, including 300 billion yuan development loans and 5000多亿个 mortgages. One of the personal mortgage loans increased more than 50% year-on-year. "If these 1/3 inputs to energy, chemical are not big things, if put into real estate, leverage higher, pry more liquidity, the other 2/3 will accelerate the flow of property, which affects the security of the 2/3 funds." "She said that the general real estate financial leverage at 5-8 Times is normal, more than 10 times times to be warned, more than 20 times times will be very dangerous," like the rapid rise in housing prices in cities with more leverage than this limit cities have, can not find a way to solve this problem? "Historical experience shows that the real estate crash caused the crisis, mainly because the bank dragged in."　　Shangmin said the International Monetary Fund has done a study to find that over the past 10 years, more than 100 crises, which involve bank credit security, will have a long and far-reaching impact. However, a bank housing credit director told reporters, "macro-control if only to depress prices, banks are not worried." First, the mortgage loan for each suite has a minimum down payment of 20% to 30%, which ensures that the bank can withstand a 20% decline in house prices. Second, the individual is not bankrupt, if you loan 1 million room, just returned 100,000, but also 900,000, now the house price fell to 800,000, you do not want to return, the bank to take your home, to 600,000 of the price to sell, the bank has 300,000 yuan loss, you have to bear the responsibility of breach of contract, the bank will sue, continue to recover , not as many media have said, I just have to give the house to the bank without paying back the money. Therefore, in China, the non-performing rate of personal housing mortgage loans is still very low, 1% less, of course, in a certain period of time it may also float up and down, for example, from 0.5% to 0.51%, if the growth rate has increased by 2%, but in fact still less than 1%. "But he said the real concern of the banks was the economic downturn triggered by the housing turmoil, which led to a massive inability to recoup corporate loans." "Due to the real estate industry as many as fifty or sixty related industries, the real estate industry downturn, may affect the steel, cement, building materials, such as upstream and downstream industry chain, and if the demand of these factories affected, the final downsizing will affect employment, thus further affect the overall income and consumption levels of residents."　　"said the person. Wang, an associate professor of finance at Tsinghua University, said that countries such as Japan and Singapore, while housing prices are high, have services, innovative industries,The financial industry, such as support, expensive "value for money", and China's these industries have not completed transformation and upgrading, the current competitiveness is mainly dependent on manufacturing cost advantages, "if the price of a high, even this advantage is not." Of course, while the real estate can also play a role in pulling the economy, can pull a pull, but can not rely entirely on real estate, the transition to hasten transformation, the upgrade hastened to upgrade, otherwise, the real estate This wheel broke, the other wheels are still flat, how to pull the car? "The real estate market should not be a hype tool. The key is that so many private funds should have more investment channels. "Xia, director of the financial Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, a member of the Central bank's 2010 Monetary Policy Committee.