The effect of RMB appreciation on China's trade accident deficit in February

March 10, Customs statistics show that the total value of China's imports and exports in February amounted to 200.78 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10.6%, the pace of export growth in February slowed markedly, the month of 7.3 billion U.S. dollar trade deficit, to surprise the market.　　Institutional experts on Sina Finance said, excluding the January export-intensive and spring festival factors, the renminbi appreciation played a certain role.　　The effect of the Spring Festival on the export of RMB appreciation the customs statistics show that February this year, China's exports of 96.74 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 2.4%, imports of 104.04 billion U.S. dollars, growth of 19.4%, the month of 7.3 billion U.S. dollar trade deficit, resulting in 1-February cumulative trade deficit of 890 million U.S. dollars. This is in stark contrast to what the agency and experts had previously predicted, with the average February trade surplus averaging around $4.7 billion trillion.　　Among them, the February trade surplus of the highest value of 20 billion U.S. dollars, the lowest value of 5 billion U.S. dollars (trade deficit of 5 billion U.S. dollars).　　Ho Jianguo, dean of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of Commerce, pointed out that the data reflected the relatively large percentage of imports and exports, need to be attached. "February export decline is expected, because the January focused on the export factors, coupled with the Spring festival holiday in February, delivery and settlement of the rhythm has been affected." However, the ratio of imports and exports is relatively large, I think this mainly reflects the internal pressure, such as the rise of the renminbi exchange rate, export pressure, increase in raw material prices and employment problems, need to pay attention to, and the external market changes little.　　Ho Jianguo said to Sina Finance and economics. Xu Weishong, chief macro researcher at the Capital Securities Institute, previously made a deficit judgment on trade in February.　　He told Sina Finance that 1-February trade figures reflected a gradual rise in the impact of China's renminbi appreciation, not only in February exports, but also in January, where imports grew very fast, reflecting China's increased purchasing power. Data show that 1-February, the renminbi appreciation of nearly 0.7%, especially in the middle of February, the renminbi appreciation rate accelerated, and repeatedly updated the renminbi since the exchange record low. But Zuo, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, does not believe that special attention needs to be paid to 1-February data. "1 quarters of data are only reference, not the basis, do not need a special interpretation, otherwise there will be misreading."　　"Her reason is that the Spring festival holiday factors affect very much." Optimistic about the trend of the year the situation in North Africa affected exports this February the first trade deficit, the Ministry of Commerce has been expected.　　China's Commerce Minister Chen Deming said in Monday that it would not rule out a trade deficit in individual months of the year. and Zuo that the 2011 surplus will become normal. She pointed out that this is related to China's export strategy to import strategy, and "Twelve-Five" Planning transformation Sian.　　The deficit in individual months was not caused by a sharp decline in external demand markets and domestic economic problems. Ho Jianguo pointed out that the overall trend of 2011 years to maintain a certain scale growth will not be a problem, the growth of imports and exports to maintain 15% problem is not big. The December was in an extraordinary situation, but the proportionExceeding expectations requires attention. "The figures remind us to expand our imports while maintaining a steady growth in exports, recognizing changes in the environment and conditions, and taking into account the relationship between imports and exports." Whether it is a surplus or a deficit, it is important to have a basic balance of trade. "Ho Jianguo said.　　He thinks he can maintain the surplus in the first quarter. Xu Weishong also believes that the 2011 import and export growth rate is no problem, because the Western economy is recovering. But he cautioned that the geopolitical risks in North Africa have had a significant impact on China's exports, as affected by the situation in Libya. That could lead to less than expected exports from China to developing countries in the March and the second quarter. (Jessie is from Shanghai)