The electric dealer also can rise strong three years?

Absrtact: Ma Yun firmly believe that the future can not listen to economists, but the Economist to provide the information and judgment must be wrong? Is it the business instinct to know more about destiny, or is the Economist's data model more plausible? Recently, the Billion Bang Power network special traffic Bank chief economics

Ma Yun firmly believe that "the future can not listen to The Economist", but the Economist to provide the information and judgment must be wrong? Is it the business instinct to know more about destiny, or is the Economist's data model more plausible? A few days ago, the billion state power network special traffic bank chief economist Lianping, the future of the electric business situation made the following judgments:

Lianping that, with the expansion of the scale of electric business enterprises, venture capital can not act as a perpetual motive, the electric business will be from the original wind-driven to the bank financing, as long as the electricity business enterprise cash flow is healthy enough, emerging financing channels will appear.

At the same time, Lianping also agree that the future of a super strong pattern of formation, electric business entrepreneurs to shake the opportunity window of the big platform more and more narrow, on the contrary, in the regional market, vertical market depth mining may be harvested a lot.

In addition, for the future of the electric business situation, lianping bullish, and said that "Twelve-Five" before the end of the plan, will continue to maintain a high growth status. Although the line will eat up the line of stock, but the total volume of retail sales will continue to rise, the electricity business is not.

The following is the full text of the dialogue between the power network of billion and Lianping:

Billion power network: Looking back over the past ten years, the electric business experience, is driven by the venture capital industry, the Internet economy is a venture capital driven by the "perpetual motive"?

Lianping: So far, the electric dealer is still the wind drive. But when you have a considerable size and volume, especially when you have a large volume of sales, customers and assets, you may not need a VC.

Early electric dealers need VCs, which is a big risk to advance in the beginning stage. Financing channels like banks are not involved. But in the future, the electric business enterprise gradually heats up, although belongs to the light asset, but has the massive sales and the cash flow, these will cause the bank and so on financial institution's attention. The electric trader may move from the era of VCs to the era of using the traditional financial system.

Billion power network: to the bank financing, electrical business enterprises need to pay attention to?

Lianping: The initial stage of the venture does not seek return, but to a certain delivery period or redemption period will be (for return), but also a high return. Banks are different, VCs are similar to shareholders, and banks borrow. Borrowing, corporate financing costs are controllable, there will be no big fluctuations. Then, the electric business enterprise bigger, more easy to control its financial cost. If the source of funds is borrowed, the interest rate is limited, and the size of the bank may bargain with the banks and reduce the interest rate.

Enterprises big, there is a very key, that is, financial costs to be very stable, not very large fluctuations, otherwise the enterprise can not do (good).

Billion power network: To get the bank's capital injection, the premise is still to have scale?

Lianping: Behind the scale is the income, the income behind is the cash flow, the sale is withdrawn, as to the user quantity may the bank does not care very much. Because no matter how the electric business development, its account must be opened in the commercial bank, so the bank will observe it for three consecutive years of income growth, control the operation of the enterprise risk. As long as the risk is manageable, for example, if the amount of cash flow per month is large, the bank will give appropriate loans.

Of course, also want to see enterprise health. If the investment is large, even if the absolute amount of cash flow is large, but relatively limited, or even beyond their means, banks are unwilling to lend.

The electrical business sector is still a light asset, and there are few mortgages, and the health of cash flow is now the best collateral.

Billion Power network: If we redefine the electricity business, what are the fundamental differences between the past decade and the next ten years?

Lianping: Electric Business Research is not much, but the trend is clear, the proportion of online retail will be more and more high, the future economic life may be the line of the next two components. Offline is physical, online relatively virtual.

Online dishes must be growing, now more and more young people, more than 90% of the consumption is online. But we are not, we have to go to the store for a run.

Billion power network: Assuming that after the end of the last 10 years, such as Ali, Jingdong, such as large-scale enterprises will not be in a short period of time, the future of the platform, to center into the mainstream, they have no better financing channels?

Lianping: It's really difficult to compete with a big platform. But I think there will be a lot of relatively professional field of electrical business. From the angle of the bank, is the enterprise's industrial chain depth. In addition to existing business, but also to the upstream and downstream to make some extension and expansion. For example, the car to the gasoline down to accessories supplies, industrial chain links will appear a number of similar enterprises.

We should pay attention to the problem in the future, it is not simple like the way the big nets fishing in the past, electric business enterprises must have a certain degree of specialization, to be possible in the market foothold.

We can not imagine dozens of Ali and Jingdong again, it is impossible. The future of the pattern is a small batch can achieve full coverage of the big platform, a large number of relatively professional relative volume of small enterprises, this is not the exclusive trend of the electric business, banking is similar, all industries will almost go to such a pattern, but also a combination of total and difference.

Billion Power network: Electric business people always love to say "a super strong", a super platform and a number of vertical areas of deep capacity of a strong platform.

Lianping: This is the Basic Law of the market.

Billion power network: a hunch the future trend of the electricity quotient is high growth, or the ceiling will soon come?

Lianping: High growth. But it may not grow as high as it used to, but at least it is still high relative to other industries. Of course, I do not see too far, within 35 years, Twelve-Five planning until 2020, should still be a high-speed growth phase.

Billion power network: Your confidence in this judgment from where?

Lianping: It cannot be said that the horse-race enclosure has ended. There will be a lot of incremental mining in the depth area. Line offline on the one hand, this is a long, on the other hand is the expansion of the total, so, the electricity business is not only to dig out the stock market, incremental market will still have, this opportunity is there.

Billion power network: large electric business platform also began to dig vertically from the region, such as the countryside, such as your 9th online retail conference mentioned in the county economy, it is likely to be underestimated, especially in some of the original more developed large cities radiation of the county area.

Lianping: The county economy should revolve around the consumption space is bigger, China more than 2000 counties, the central and western region of the county's commercial value has not been developed for the time being. On the contrary, in many areas as long as 4 conditions (see: "Lianping: The underestimated County economy"), he has a lot of opportunities, consumption scale, economic total is big, this scale is better. If the electric dealers want to go to the county area to layout, first to these areas, not busy in the national chess Sweep. In some places, there is no good return.

Billion Power network: In addition to the local economic total, consumption scale, and what is the power to enter the county to consider factors?

Lianping: Judging from the way that the electric dealer manages itself. The electricity merchant belongs to the retail, when aims at the county domain economy, the target customer group is very important. Obviously, the high-end consumer group does not belong to this part, this part of the crowd personalized demand is relatively high, more willing to go shopping. On the contrary, middle and lower customers are more suitable.

The same platform, the consumption potential, large population, the future can be.