The first growth of foreign trade in the November is a road full of thorns

Drawing: Liu Xianyun This November, China's import and export value for the first time in the year to achieve year-on-year positive growth of foreign trade inflection point? (economic focus) This November, China's import and export value of the year for the first time to achieve year-on-year positive growth, it is gratifying.　　But short-term internal and external needs of the situation is difficult to change, foreign trade rebound road is full of thorns. Three major factors to jointly promote the November foreign trade, the first current growth of the General Administration of Customs 11th statistics show that the November China's total value of imports and exports in the year of the first year-on-year positive growth, the increase of 9.8%.　　Exports of 113.65 billion U.S. dollars, down 1.2% year-on-year, down to the lowest in the year, and for the first time less than two digits, import 94.56 billion U.S. dollars, the year-on-year increase of 26.7%, not only to get rid of the decline, but also a small increase. Long, vice Minister of foreign Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said November foreign trade from "negative" to "positive", there are mainly the following three reasons: First, the United States, Japan and Europe and other major trading partners of the slow recovery of the external demand slowly recover; second, since last year, the country issued a series of stable external demand, promote export policy also received good results　　, the export competitiveness of Chinese products has not changed; The world economic situation began to pick up in the second quarter of this year, with the three-quarter momentum maintained, according to an analysis released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs December 2. Now the economies of developed and emerging economies are recovering.　　The U.S. economy reappeared in the third quarter, and the Japanese and European economies continued to improve. Long that after the financial crisis, consumers first cut the consumer durables, luxury and so on. And our labor-intensive products are more necessities of life, rigid demand.　　At present, these products in Europe, the United States, Japan's three major market share of exports has not fallen, but there must be a rise. The foundation of global economic recovery is fragile the road to rebound of foreign trade is full of thorns customs analysts pointed out that, despite the continued rebound in foreign trade, but short-term internal and external needs of the situation is difficult to change, the road of foreign trade recovery is full of thorns.　　At present, the world economy is at a critical stage of reversal, the economic recovery is not balanced and the conditions for achieving sustainable growth remain fragile. According to customs statistics, imports first recovered in November; "This is mainly because, despite the slow recovery of the global economy, the fundamentals remain fragile," Long said. The unemployment rate in major economies such as the US and Europe has been high, and credit has not yet fully recovered, curbing some consumer spending. At the same time, international trade protectionism is rising, and the environment of foreign trading may deteriorate further. "He expects export growth to be positive in December and may be above double-digit levels in the first half of next year, but partly because of the low base effect." "Even if exports grew by 20% per cent in the first half of next year, their absolute size would only return to the first half of 2008, and the contribution of exports to GDP would fall." "December 11, the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center released a research report, although the year-end export year-on-year decline sharplynarrowed, but the 2009 surplus is expected to be narrowed sharply to about 200 billion U.S. dollars, down from 2008 to about 100 billion U.S. dollars, the annual foreign trade to GDP growth negative pull effect has become a foregone conclusion. The implementation of market diversification strategy to develop new markets to promote the steady growth of foreign trade, on the one hand, to adjust the structure of foreign trade, speed up the transformation of foreign Trade Development mode, and strive to maintain the traditional market.　　On the other hand, in-depth implementation of market diversification strategy, stabilize the traditional market, vigorously explore emerging markets. Customs statistics show that this 1-November, Europe, the United States and Japan, in turn, is my first three trading partners. Among them, Sino-EU bilateral trade value 326.27 billion U.S. dollars, down 17%. Sino-US bilateral trade value of 266.54 billion U.S. dollars, down 13.4%.　　Sino-Japanese bilateral trade value of 203.33 billion U.S. dollars, down 17.4%. At the same time, China's market share in emerging economies has great potential. At present, China's exports in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Africa, Latin America's market share of only 9.2%, 3.7%, 10.4%, 6.9%, the growth of a large space.　　Expanding external demand remains a promising prospect. In recent years, China and ASEAN countries have been active in trade. In January-November this year, China and ASEAN countries total import and export of 187.05 billion U.S. dollars, of which exports of 93.18 billion U.S. dollars, the year-on-year decline of 13.2% and 11.7%, the decline is less than the same period with Europe, the United States, the recent decline of the three trading partners.　　January 1 next year, the China-ASEAN free Trade Area will be completed, will bring new opportunities. Experts suggest that exporters should try to maintain the traditional market share of Europe, the United States and so on, based on India, Russia and other emerging markets and developing countries as a new export target market, and continuously improve the grade of export products, enhance market competitiveness and achieve export growth.