The imbalance of foreign trade in different provinces and regions in China shows outstanding

Pei Changhong, director of the Institute of Financial Economics and Trade and Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China Net Yang Jia China network December 7 News "2010" Economic Blue Book released and China's economic situation analysis and prediction Seminar ", The conference analyzes and forecasts the economic development trends and major problems faced by China in the 2009 and 2010, and forecasts the main indicators of national economy in 2009-2010.　　China network live broadcast. Pei Changhong, director of the Institute of Financial Economics and Trade and economics of Cass, said that from the perspective of this year's import and export trade is down, I expect this year our total import and export trade decline is about 14%-15%, the decline in export trade is about 16% to 17%, The annual trade surplus is about 180 billion to 190 billion dollars, down 35% to 40% from the previous year.　　This year, although our national foreign trade situation is in decline, but there are some good phenomena. This year in various provinces and regions of the decline in the imbalance, there are three provinces and regions are outstanding, one is Sichuan province, Sichuan Province this year, the decline in export trade is only 3%, Guangxi's decline is only 6.4%, Fujian's decline is only 10.8%, not only significantly lower than the national average price, And according to such a decrease, if the price factor is deducted, it can be regarded as not falling. There are some cities in the export trade situation is relatively good, than that Wenzhou's decline is 11.3%, Yantai declined 6.3%, Shantou only 10.9%, Beihai only 0.7%, Chengdu only 8.2%, Zhongshan only 8.8%.　　Like these cities are the decline is smaller, so not all the same, there are some provinces, cities in the response to the international financial crisis, the performance is very prominent. ' According to the preliminary survey, I think there are two experiences that we have created in response to grassroots cadres and businesses in the face of the international financial crisis, Pei Changhong said. On the one hand, make full use of the free trade area cadres, such as Guangxi, they have made full use of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, expanded the economic and trade cooperation with the ASEAN countries, so the impact of the international financial crisis has been greatly offset. This experience was provided in 2009, when we were affected by the international financial crisis.　　For example, to strengthen regional economic cooperation and expand the agreement between China and some countries ' free trade zones is an effective measure against the international financial crisis, we should continue to strengthen this experience and strive for better development next year. The second experience, like Fujian, is why it has declined relatively little, and I have done some research on this issue. During the international financial crisis, part of the foreign trade enterprises played a very important role. Because the competitiveness of China's export products is actually composed of two parts, part of the domestic low-cost manufacturing, after the product to foreign countries, it sold to consumers to go through a series of circulation process, a series of circulation process are people outside the service provider, they are highly efficient, logistics, advertising, they are very efficient, so that Chinese exports although in the international market competitive. In the domestic sector, in addition to low-cost manufacturing, because we are now increasingly fragmented production, especially a part of labor-intensive products are also transferred to the Midwest to produce, transfer to the mainland to produce. These decentralized production and international market linkages require a large number of productive services to connect them.