The mobile phone has gone to chaos, good luck.

"The future of the market will survive only three or four, now many regional brands, the future will no longer exist," This is Huawei vice President Yu eyes of the smartphone industry integration trend.

Shortly thereafter, Lei, the founder of Millet, wrote in a new year's message to all the staff: "In 2015, the domestic smartphone industry growth slowed down, the competition is to compete for the durability and overall ecosystem capacity of the big elimination stage."

Big elimination, no longer exist ... Yu, lei Two people say of course not own company. The two of the world's top five handset makers are judged by the future fortunes of some "friends". This kind of speech behind, also shows the leader of the industry to shuffle the impulse. The rich have shipped hundreds of billion, the poor without lizhuizhide, the well-known factory brand collapsed, small and medium-sized manufacturers silent, perhaps this is the next three years of the smartphone industry picture.

What drives the smartphone industry is the combination of three main sources: Moore's law, scale effect and ecological chain effect.

Moore's law was proposed by Moore, one of Intel's founders. The contents are as follows: the number of crystals (transistors) that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit increases by one times every 24 months; the oft-cited "18 months" is what Intel Chief Executive David Hause said. Moore's law is often interpreted as: the number of integrated circuits on an integrated circuit chip is doubled every 18 months, and the microprocessor's performance increases by one times every 18 months, or the price drops by half. The computer performance that can be bought in a dollar doubles twice every 18 months.

The smartphone industry may not be able to apply Moore's law strictly, but with rising performance and falling prices, you can recall the generation of smartphones you've replaced over the past 6 years.

Moore's law drives component prices down. Instead of setting a high price and then gradually reduce prices, it is better to set a six months after the cost of maintaining a balanced low price, as long as the early effective control of shipments is good, this is the millet model is one of the mysteries of the well-known.

The scale effect is also known as the scale economy, which refers to the phenomenon of increasing the economic benefit caused by enlarging the scale of production. As production increases, the average cost of the long term declines. In the hardware sector, especially in the field of smart phones. Large shipments of enterprises to split the cost of each cell phone will be greatly reduced, at the same time with the industry chain stronger bargaining power, effectively reduce the cost of mobile phones.

The ecological chain effect has no forming theory at present, and it is approximate to the "triathlon" of Lei. Smartphones are not just hardware, but also systems and soft services. Competition among manufacturers is the ability to compete, and even if the handset hardware does not provide enough profit, the system pre-installed and services may also bring good value-added revenue. The rise of wearable devices and smart homes has also given more meaning to eco-chains. Smartphones are no longer just an ecological integration of hardware, software and services, but also include networking, collaboration, and data communication across different devices.

These three strands of power are twisted together, the result: (single) The larger the volume of shipments of enterprises, the more able to launch price war, the more eco-chain enterprises have the ability to reduce mobile phone prices to close to cost; Companies with mobile phones and system platforms can easily enter or align companies in various niche areas of wearable or smart home. The endorsement of wind investment gold, the difference between the cost of different channels will make this model more complex, but the skeleton is the case.

From the theory to the reality, we can see Millet, Huawei, Lenovo and other large Chinese mobile phone companies are doing similar things: high school low-end full category competition, internationalization expansion, to close to the cost of pricing way to compete for low-end market, its own or alliance to use services to realize, promote more integration of equipment types.

With the clearest idea of millet as an example. Millet mobile phone product line has been covered from 699 to 1999 Yuan Price range, 15th this month will also release Millet 5, Millet has entered the 7 countries market, in India, the results are particularly noticeable, and MIUI and its growth in the application, games, wallpapers, book audio and video content distribution potential, has been the important reason for the attention of millet, Also constitute the essence of millet moat; In addition to mobile phones, Millet also launched a TV, routers, tablets and other household products and invested 30 of eco-chain enterprises to build around the core products of Millet smart home around.

Small business days will become more and more sad. But there are three unique exceptions to the charm family, a plus and a hammer.

Fortunately, the founder of the Zang was awakened in the 2014 years before the big elimination began. The charm of the past year's many actions is to stare at the millet, or stare at the Millet dozen. The introduction of external funds to prepare for war; from MX4 to MX4 Pro to the Phantom Blue Note as well as Zang notice of the charm of the blue, stare at the whole line of millet; FlyMe strengthen the application distribution and give the intention of opening to the outside.

Relying on the international enthusiasts market to pass the survival threshold of the start-up handset manufacturers, after millions of sales have survived. Next with Millet, Lenovo, Huawei and other mobile phone manufacturers of global expansion, a plus also face the corresponding challenges.

Luckily or unfortunately, Luo's hammer technology hooked up to the last bus to start a mobile phone. The first generation of 200,000 shipments also ensured the company's initial survival.

But in the run-up to 2015, a quiet market segment may no longer be a comfortable choice. Produce more price models to increase the amount of hardware users, or alliances, to expand their custom system (ROM) user coverage. It is also reasonable to introduce external intelligent hardware resources into the open platform.

In Millet, Huawei, Lenovo, such as the charm of the company above the ZTE, cool pie and other large manufacturers need to find another way out. The great God of cool sent together Qihoo 360 is only the first example. But the age of the big elimination, will naturally be clear out of the mobile phone market.

The reason why the hammer and a catch the last bus, because in the coming 2015, a new mobile phone brand will be impossible to complete or doomed to return to the difficult task.

A big backdrop for the 2015 is a slowdown in the domestic handset market, and the era of peaceful and shared growth is over. Compete for the share of Samsung, compete for the share of the weak brand, compete for share, go to the international market to compete for the share of each country ... The bloody battle is the theme of the 2015.

Pingwest learned that Gionee's Internet brand Iuni is in a difficult situation and could be the first to die in 2015. Of course it's all just prologue. Now that the curtain is up, there will be more manufacturers on the stage left-right, struggling and ups and downs.

Good luck to the troubled times.