The pain of house prices under financial hegemony: The American Black Hand behind China's housing market

Author: Chen Si into the Chinese real estate market with foreign financial institutions such as Wall Street institutions, the wave of speculation in the house, so, like the U.S. real estate market bubble, also brewing in China on the ground Wall Street to use the inherent greed and obedience of human nature, the original credit consumption, the model of early consumption. When the year is good, the bank to reduce interest as bait, lure people to buy houses, enjoy the "old American" style of life, but this will undoubtedly also give home buyers buried a time bomb. As the real estate market fires, bubbles are blown and more people enter, creating a debt pyramid in which banks immediately increase interest rates. At this time, the housing is "hostage", the bank's 5-year, 10-year loan rate, a rise, people will be forced to lower the standard of living, to repay the increase in arrears due to interest rates, the housing market bubble was punctured. Once you've lost your job and you can't afford a mortgage, the bank will be able to take away your property outright, because you're wrong, who told you to owe money or not? Their snatch is justified.　　The Wall Street model advocates winners as Kings, losers, and kings at the top of the pyramid. "Money has no motherland, financiers don't know what patriotism is, their only purpose is to profit."　　"It is no more apt to describe the Wall Street people with the famous words of Napoleon, who, after plundering the wealth of the American people at home and abroad, will devour the wealth of the Chinese people, like piranha, very brutal." In 2003, U.S. 10-year bonds returned less than 3.5% per cent, a record low, and long-term bonds were not rewarded, and while corporate bonds and mortgage bonds had higher returns, individuals could not easily have those returns directly, so nearly half of Americans did not buy any stocks.　　And house prices only rise every year, people believe that owning a house is more profitable than owning a stock. During that period of madness, almost everyone was able to get a mortgage from a lender, and even if the borrower's credit records were slightly flawed, speculation in the housing market was rampant. For example, in California and Florida State in the United States, as well as the East Coast area and the western mountains, if you pay for a set of 200,000 dollars in the first payment of apartments for 10,000 dollars or 0, After 3 months, you sell at 225,000 dollars, and after deducting 5000 dollars of expenses, you will gain 20,000 dollars over 3 months. What kind of profit is that?　　It's a 400% profit! Marx said that when profits reached 300%, people dared to risk hanging.　　Profit-and-profit is the nature of capital, in the face of more than 300% of profits, speculators have no reason not to enter. Major banks and mortgage agencies are scrambling to snatch the market, they divide home loan applicants into two levels: one is a group with high credit, a fixed income, a bank that offers low-interest loans, and a lock on interest rates, so they enjoy the best loans, and the borrowers with low credit ratings and poor solvency, they can also get loans from banks at this time, but interest rates are 2%-3% higher and cannot be locked down, and must rise with market interest rates and fall under subprime mortgages.　　So it seems to be a win-win deal for all. In the face of ultra-low interest rates, soaring prices, and no guarantee, no down payment, people who don't buy a house are absolutely idiots. Not only did the "poor" buy the first suite, but even the "rich" who lived in the house began to speculate on the second and third sets of houses.　　There are more and more people entering the housing market, and the bottom of the wealth pyramid is getting bigger. In the commodity society, housing is the largest and most profitable commodity. Since the house is a commodity, it must conform to the value of the commodity. We should assess whether the price of a region is reasonable and whether there is a bubble, so as to control house prices and avoid the recession caused by the fall of house prices. But the value of any asset--whether it's a stock or a house--is based on a lot of buyers ' predictions of future returns, and who can say that the buyers ' predictions are wrong?　　In 2005, however, there were signs of this: Huge house sales and the easy money people can make by buying and selling homes! At that time, people either look at the profit under the nose, or spell life to catch up with the express, absolutely do not want to be in the car crowded outside the door.　　The traditional theory of predicting bubbles has long been thrown into the clouds. Indeed, in the boom years, we've heard stories of many lucky people who have doubled house prices. But house prices will not rise forever, from the point of view of financial management, often buy a house is not more cost-effective than renting. The cost of owning a property is closely related to the price of the house being sold. If house prices rise faster than rents in a very long time, renting is a cheaper option for many people, and in contrast, house prices are clearly overvalued. And rent is really able to reflect the supply and demand relationship.　　Why do you say that? Because in today's credit consumption model, both as intermediary of the housing management company, or the landlord of their own housing rental business, will not allow tenants to pay the rent by way of credit. If the rent is too high, the tenant will not be able to rent the house to the landlord after weighing its own economic condition (the landlord also investigates the economic background of the potential tenant). Therefore, the calculation of the ratio of house prices to rents is an ancient test of whether there is a bubble in the price of the method, under normal circumstances, 10-15 of the ratio range is reasonable. Another method is to calculate the ratio of house prices to income, that is, the average price of a place and the average annual income of local residents, the ratio of 3-5 is reasonable in general, and the ratio of more than 6 is outrageous.　　Here, let's look at whether there is a bubble in China's real estate market. 1997, I returned home for the first time, feel the biggest change in the domestic commercial housing more up, people can have their own housing. At that time, there were several high-rise apartments built by Hong Kong developers in Shanghai, each selling about 1 million yuan, and the annual rent is about 100,000 yuan., the 10 rent would be enough to buy an apartment.　　Regardless of this price or rent, for the ordinary people at that time, are "astronomical". I did not think that, these years domestic housing prices like rockets jump up, in the year of Shanghai luxury apartments in the lot, 2008 prices rose to 5 million yuan, or even tens of millions of dollars. And a set of tens of millions of dollars in the pattern of luxury three rooms two Hall two Wei, and furniture appliances complete, considering the market 10 years ago, its rent also the simultaneous growth of 1 million yuan per year is also reasonable. I am surprised that its monthly rent is only 7500 yuan, long-term rental tenants can also enjoy discounts! As to whether there is a bubble in the housing market, even if I do not say, you should also work out.　　Think of the price of tens of thousands of dollars in the mansion if used for rent, then a year's rent is less than 90,000 yuan, even if you use the money to buy a house to deposit into the bank to eat interest, at least 200,000 yuan per year interest, enough to pay rent. (Selected from "Financial let who rich", Chen Sijin, Citic Press Publishing)