The ten-year controversy over the property market: Who fooled

Experts driving around the Beijing two ring, three ring, four ring round a circle, found everywhere is the site, lights everywhere, so that the real estate has appeared a serious bubble wen |　　Wang Yu Since 1998 since the housing reform, with the real estate market clouds up Yun Yu, the market trend analysis due to the vital interests of the general public, and become a temporary "famous".　　10 years, around the question of house prices, comments and saliva qi, predicting a total of rumors color.　　Comb about the development of China's property market focus on the speech, you can find that the housing reform Decade, as the impetuous real estate industry itself, policymakers, academics, the media and the public, have been caught in the impetuous misunderstanding. Bullish and bearish "2002 will be the winter of the real estate industry, and may even collapse in February." December 25, 2001, in an interview with CCTV, famous scholar Wei said: "If the property market does not collapse, I will go to jump." In early 2003, the NDRC researcher Wang Xiaoquan launched a "Bubble theory".　　In China's first tracking report, launched by the Economic Research Institute of the State Development Commission and Beijing Xinhua online, China's industry boom report warned: China's property bubble has already emerged, with 2003 prices falling slightly, and 2004 falling more significantly.　　The "SARS" epidemic has left the debate on the "Bubble Theory", which lasted for six months throughout the country, to a temporary lull. 2004, the "bubble" controversy again hot. In July, Yixianrong, a scholar at the Institute of Financial Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, published an article on Beware of the real estate industry. Andy Xie, Asia's chief economist at Morgan Stanley, sent the most strident voice: "This is the last madness." With inflation in China and rising interest rates in the Federal Reserve, the days of ' final reckoning ' are getting closer, just a few months, not a year. "May 2006," on the real estate market, the top ten lies once again to stand in the price of the topic of the forefront of the Wang Xiaoquan become the focus.　　In CCTV "News meeting Living Room" program, Wang Xiaoquan with personal reputation guarantee, 5 years house price will fall.　　When someone is bearish, someone is bullish.　　Baozonghua, vice president of the China Real Estate and Housing Research Association, said in January 2002 in the "China Construction newspaper" that "2002 is not a Chinese real estate winter", pointing out that Wei has made "winter theory" erroneous trend prediction on the basis of the actual data from real estate in China.　　Wang Ping, Secretary-General of the China Real Estate Association's Urban Development Professional committee, said: "2002 years without the possibility of a crash, the real estate market will continue to heat for quite a long time."　　In addition, the director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Urban Research Center, the Social sciences "real Estate Blue Book" editor Newferry, Housing and Construction policy Research director Huai and other experts and scholars, that in demand than supply, China's housing prices will be rising trend. Looking back at the actual situation, according to the "China Statistical Digest" data show that 2001 house prices rose to two digits in 8 provinces and cities, 2002-year increase of two-digit provinces and cities only 6; 2004 year's double-digit increase in the provinces to 23, the national housing prices in general high-speed rise, 2005 national housing prices continued to rise 15.2%, 2007 70 cities nationwide housing prices rose 7.6% Year-on-year, reached a historical peak.　　More striking is the "inflection point theory". Wang Shi, known as the leader of the real estate industry, said in December 2007 that the property market had begun to show signs of "inflection point". He argues that house prices have risen faster than household incomes, and that even the middle class cannot afford to buy houses.　　After that, Wang Dan rate Vanke began to reduce prices. Ren Zhiqiang put forward the opposite view: only the inflection point of policy, there is no inflection points of housing prices.　　Wang Zhongming, director of the SASAC Research Center in the State Council, also responded that inflection points would mislead the public and even mislead the government.　　But the real estate market for the first occurrence of a continuous high growth after the anomaly: broken supply, check-out, the focus of the city commercial housing turnover significantly reduced, real estate investment growth fell, more than 60 large and medium-sized residential land stream flow beat, retreat.　　Two men's battle unexpectedly, many times expressed "the style of study impetuous, on many issues, do not know the difference between the news and entertainment and academic research," The scholar Xu Xianqing, is also involved in a house price ups and downs of the game. July 2007, Xu Xianqing said: "If the price of Shenzhen does not rise in a year, I apologize to the people of Shenzhen."　　"The Real estate blog Circle of celebrities to set up a gamble: If Next year (July 11, 2008) Shenzhen housing prices than the current higher cent, I must in the" Shenzhen Evening News "in the full version of the Shenzhen public apology. June 28, 2008, the media again published Xu's remarks, "this summer prices have soared, I do not apologize." July 1, 2008, Xu Xianqing posted an article on his blog, "I apologize to the people of Shenzhen."　　In the apology at the same time, Xu Xianqing said he was wrong in the simple prediction of house prices, it is easy to make entertainment news, to promote the impetuous style of study, it is possible to divert attention, ignoring the real estate market urgently need to solve the fundamental problem.　　July 8, Xu Xianqing in the "Southern Metropolis Daily" A49 version of the Shenzhen News edition published an apology advertisement. But looking at real estate news in recent years, one interesting phenomenon is that the debate over house prices has become a battle between two men.　　The heat of the debate has made the rhetoric of both sides more emotive.　　In 2006, when Wang Xiaoquan used his "conscience and reputation" to gamble that prices must fall 5 years later, another scholar, Professor Dong of Beijing Normal University, immediately challenged Wang Xiaoquan. In the challenge book, Dong first lost a chance to gamble with a scholar about the fall in prices in Shanghai and Beijing in the previous year.　　Then said he did not want to miss the opportunity to make a fortune, he bought a house near the school, 5 years later, if the price rises, Wang Xiaoquan will pay him the price difference in the past few years; if the house price falls, oneself spreads the price difference to supply the Wang Xiaoquan.　　There is no result on this side of the van Pan Shiyi has been and when the ice. During the Spring Festival in 2007, Shihan's comments "Pan Shiyi so fooled house prices," pointed at February 12 Pan Wen "Seven major factors affecting 2007 yearsThe trend of house prices. The reason for the Pan Shi is that because of the seven factors listed by Pan Wenzhong, there are five major factors supporting the rise in house prices. The two sides thus opened the word War, midway due to Ren Zhiqiang "I for pen say a few words" Bowen's publication and changed into a time of contention.　　The controversy lasted January, Pan, Ren, when 3 of the blog clicks accumulated up to 200,000 people.　　In the campaign, Shihan called for "to write anger on his face and not buy a house for a year".　　Since then, Shihan and Ren Zhiqiang's war continues, the battlefield covers the paper media, television and the Internet. The war shifted from the outside to the interior.　　The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences "real estate Blue Book" has also been questioned by Ren Zhiqiang after he shelled Beijing Academy of Social Sciences "The Blue Book". May 12, 2008, Cao, director of the Investment and Marketing Research Institute of the Academy of Industrial Economics, said that since 2004, every blue book on the market analysis and prediction are wrong.　　He predicts that prices will slide to rock bottom in 2012, perhaps by half the price.　　In response, the Blue Book editor Newferry replied that the price is only wishful thinking of some people.　　After a period of time, after the end of the war, the fuse of 2009, because "house prices have an impact on the CPI" and ignited again. A Sina blogger with a signature of "70%" said he did not care about the details of the two men's arguments, the essence of what he sees is that Ren Zhiqiang, ridiculed by the people of the country as a "big Mouth", has in fact been reminding the public at any time for years that it is not too late to buy a house and seems to be right today;　　, its advocates of not buying houses have made the Chinese public an outsider to rising house prices (or property bubbles).　　Who fooled who? Comrades-in-touch, former chief economist of Housing construction and director of Housing and real Estate division, published in June 2009 the book "The Decade of real Estate", for the first time disclosed a few unknown episodes in the debate on house prices. "2001 ~2002 years, the Ministry of Construction of the real estate market trend to give a high degree of concern, that year organized a number of national market research activities, held a variety of types of market analysis and seminars." Remember in Beijing research, one of the Symposium invited Wei, asked him to talk about his own real estate winter judgment basis. Professor Wei introduced his own feeling of buying a house, saying that he recently saw a large circle around the three ring, not to see the house. That Beijing in the sale of such a large number of houses, these houses, poor, poor quality, not sell out can only blow up. His speech caused a stir in the meeting, the audience talked about, think an economic expert, on CCTV to publish such a very crucial speech, how can only rely on their own turn to see the experience and experience of the house, rather than in-depth market research and analysis? He was immediately persuaded to quarrel with him. "Comrades-in-touch also revealed:" 2006, according to Guangtao minister, such as the requirements of leaders, I let the Deputy director Shen Jianjong and development director Jiang Wanrong as soon as possible invite Yixianrong, seriously listen to his views. ...They told me that the main thing is to Yixianrong understand his judgment whether there is any investigation data or data, hope to provide us with reference. But Yixianrong did not raise this aspect of things, but repeatedly said that he recently wanted to buy a house, driving along the two ring, three ring, four ring around Beijing, found everywhere is the site, lights everywhere, he thought that real estate has been a serious bubble. "