Wanda model dilemma: commercial real estate bubble

Text | Sun Hongchao

In spite of having fluttered in the blisters of e-commerce for several years, WDA has not been able to make a big noise in this market; in contrast, the news of Wanda's e-commerce executives is constantly emerging.

The same concern, there Wanda e-commerce play, Wang Jianlin recently majestic "hit 5 billion yuan to do electricity," and consider the introduction of several of China's largest electricity supplier shares, you want to quickly find the profit model, cooperation The object may be opposite the gaming table aliens Jack Ma, may also be the next table is drinking milk tea Tyrant Liu Qiang East, Wang Sicong sets the son of a quote: "Although Wang Jianlin do not care about partners have no money, but these few Internet giants really Wang Jianlin is not necessarily rich.

However, cooperation is difficult, Wanda e-commerce may be confused alone.

Talent predicament: Why only "Xu San-more" to stay

Wanda e-commerce staff flow has been the media attention.

April 2012, Alibaba International Trading Technology Senior Director Gong Yitao joined Wanda e-commerce; December 15, Wanda million hiring, paid to hunt for e-commerce talent; the second year in August, Wanda IT department took over the WDA, many teams Members leave; the end of March 2014, Gong Yitao quit; July, Wanda COO Ma Haiping departure; the latest news is the original luxury goods supplier Jia Dong COO Dong Ce will be the CEO, the former vice president Gaopeng Gaoxia COO. In addition to senior executives, there is also a large amount of middle-class turnover. Former Wanda E-commerce employees disclosed to Netease Technology that in the recent one or two years, the middle-level turnover rate has exceeded 50%.

A natural problem, Wanda is not bad money, why can not retain talent?

In fact, it is clear that Wanda Real Estate Media understands that high turnover rate has always been the hallmark of Wanda Group, and this high turnover rate is a microcosm of Wanda's corporate culture.

A reporter familiar with Wanda Real Estate said to Netease Technology Co., Ltd. that Wanda's core business will always be unconditionally executed. Under this kind of culture, Wanda is divided into two groups, "Xu San Duo" and "Cheng Cai". The former vowed to loyal to Wanda, no matter what kind of policy will always be implemented; while others hope to be able to get a broader sky, breaking Wanda closed management. And the last to leave is often the more capable "talent" faction, leaving behind the "Xu San-duo" faithfully executing orders.

This is the military empire of Wang Jianlin Empire, iron war Wanda running in Wanda mature and stable system does not require too much rest on the books in the veteran, only those who are highly executed soldiers. Wanda employees have said Netease technology, and some Wanda Plaza even three times a year to change the general manager, do not change the area is extremely rare.

In addition, Wanda's handling process is more like a government agency, a matter of going on a dozen days is not news. GONG Yi-tao said in an interview after leaving the media: "In Wanda, PPT is usually the first to report to the leadership, all matters need to be approved by the leadership to do.Our Internet business people who do not have this habit, our thinking is Divergent - where you think about where you want to go, and the management of your company, the Internet is a flat management style with few executive orders. "

Millet-style flat management, in the Wanda seems to be "unthinkable."

Model dilemma: commercial real estate bubble

Wanda now looks good. Ten years ago, commercial real estate basically traded commodities, the floor is clearly classified as the main feature, as people's living standards improve, consumers began to demand for quality of life began to improve. Wanda caught this outlet, suddenly 忽悠 fly up.

However, commercial real estate is going to the bubble stage. According to introduction by Randy Song, president of Rand Consulting, the current commercial real estate bubble is mainly manifested in three aspects: First, the development of sales links, on the one hand, high inventory, on the other hand, potential supply is huge; Merchants, investment difficult, high vacancy rate; third is the business sector, business operators difficult, developers return on low. Data show that China's shopping malls new commercial construction area will be more than 35 million square meters and 44 million square meters, by the end of 2013, the mall will have a total stock of 250 million square meters.

Wanda is a typical cash flow rolling assets, heavy asset model, but the rent rate of return is very low. In 2011, Wanda's rental income was 3.46 billion yuan and in 2012 it was 5.207 billion yuan. In 2012, Wanda's total assets were 300 billion yuan and its revenue was 141.68 billion yuan, accounting for only 3.68% of rental income. This figure is only slightly higher than the bank, I believe if Wanda is willing to work with Alipay, the money transferred to the remaining treasure, the revenue is more than the rent.

According to Rand's survey data show that China's listed real estate in commercial real estate, holding property rental income generally accounts for the annual total revenue of 3% -5%, up to 7%. Compared with the holding of property assets, rental income accounted for only about 1.5%, while the operating profit is mostly negative. Even more frightening is the vacancy rate of commercial real estate in China is gradually rising, according to the British "Financial Times" website reported that the British Knight Frank broker conducted a shopping mall in China a vacancy rate survey concluded that "ghost shopping center syndrome is spreading" . Survey data show that the average vacancy rate of second-tier cities in China was 10.5% in 2012, up from 10.2% in 2011, while in first-tier cities the vacancy rate increased from 7.9% in 2011 to 8.4%. Among the domestic cities, the three cities are even worse: in Shenyang and Chengdu, the two largest second tier cities in China, the vacancy rates of shopping centers are 17% and 16.2% respectively; in Guangzhou, the vacancy rate is 10.2%, while in 2011 it was only just Over 4%, the overall vacancy rate showed a rapid upward trend.

These data means that Wanda must make changes in advance, perhaps the electricity supplier is a good choice. Wanda familiar with the real estate who Netease Technology said: "Wanda now poor profitability model, it must seek the help of electricity business."

Development difficulties: a department store is enough?

"I just chased the dog running the car, even if they catch up with the car can not get what, is to find something to do." - Clown

However, Wanda, which urgently needs the help of e-commerce business, is not good at traditional supermarkets.

Wanda commercial real estate in the country indeed lead, especially its cinema system is even more with the help of China's movie fever super-generous returns. However, in the supermarkets and department stores, Wanda's layout basically failed. Data show that Wanda Department Store last year completed only 91% of adjusted plans, net profit up 7%. This is the first time in the history of Wanda Department Store did not complete the profit plan, but also the group to complete the poor indicators of the company.

Wanda attributed this situation to the industrial downturn, which is the impact of e-commerce. The description of the outside world is because Wanda more pursuit of speed, but it is clear that mature and competitive business complex is not just speed and money can get. Taking Beijing's Sanlitun, Joy City and Blue Harbor as examples, these projects have longer and finer operating cycles and are naturally more successful in their operations.

Not familiar with the traditional retail business also let Wanda's e-commerce business run into trouble, with its last-line e-commerce platform Wanhui network, for example, the platform does not support online physical purchase transactions, to a large extent just as the Wanda line Under the shopping guide platform.

More so many media questions are the latest Wang Jianlin's "Card", that this card in the National Wanda Plaza, hotels, resort consumption, purchase can be used, there are discounts, points, lottery, value-added services. This does not seem to be the same as any commercial group member point discount card, which may explain that Wang Jianlin, who has been in the business of real entities, is not yet familiar with the true field of e-commerce.

In addition, Wang Jianlin mouth partners also raised concerns. On the one hand, the chiefs of Ali Jingdong are well-known names in the electricity business circle. They are almost the same character as Wang Jianlin and they want to have difficult cooperation. While several other e-commerce platforms and Wanda compared to the volume is too small, can not match the needs of Wang Jianlin.

It seems that Wang Jianlin's e-commerce has to go its own way in the short term.

Funding difficulties: 5 billion a lot?

Recent media stir 5 billion, what does it mean to Wanda? Compared with some curbside convenience stores, 5 billion is naturally a huge figure, but some media writers claim that this is "an astronomical figure for Internet companies" but it is obvious that they do not understand the industry. In the article, "In the case of Wang Jianlin, 5 billion is just a figure invested by Wanda Plaza, and in the second and third tier cities, a project investment of 5 billion yuan will bring in a return much higher than this figure."

First, we must note that 5 billion for Wang Jianlin, is not a small figure, according to earnings reports as of the end of 2013, Wanda Group assets reached 380 billion yuan, annual revenue of 186.6 billion yuan, net profit of 12.5 billion. With a classic piece of the year is that, "Who said this small amount of money, you calculate, are almost half the annual net profit."

In the view of the author, Wanda invested over 10 billion items in the country abound with 5 billion just because the over-focusing of the Internet community was magnified.

However, Netease technology consultant Wanda is very familiar with the consultation, the source said Wanda's investment practice is 50 billion investment in real money will not exceed one-tenth, which is less than 500 million, but Wanda will still be declared to be 5 billion dishes, easy from the bank loans and the government to find policy.

The aforementioned astronomical figures are even more ridiculous. According to the recently released "3000 Chinese Family Fortune List" in 2014, the top three are all Internet industry families, namely the Ma Huateng family with a wealth of 100.7 billion yuan, the Li Yanhong family, Fortune 85.3 billion yuan; Liu Qiang East family, wealth 48.4 billion yuan, is a new tycoon in 2014, the wealth value has exceeded the 2013 top (2013 top is Ma Huatian, when the wealth value of 466 billion yuan). And now for a few years the loss of any customer light financing is more than 3.2 billion yuan, just went to the United States listed unprofitable Jingdong market value of nearly 40 billion US dollars, before and after the financing of more than 17 billion yuan.

In the latest marketing training Jingdong meeting, Liu Qiang East even released his rhetoric: "One or three billion a year can also be called make money?"

The reason why so many words are used to interpret the value of 5 billion for Internet companies and even e-commerce businesses is that Wanda has used money as a gimmick for e-commerce from the very beginning and has never thought of Wanda as a pioneer in the field of e-commerce , There is no return on investment.

For Wanda, Hyun-rich is not terrible, terrible is to invest in the mentality of entrepreneurship thing.

E-commerce, Wanda how to play?

Wanda's most natural advantage is the funding and offline resources.

However, it appears in Song Yanqing, Wanda has two major disadvantages.

The first is talent. Wanda mainly pursues a military culture banned by the order. However, the Internet industry requires a highly liberal work environment and trial and error. These Wanda's relatively scarce resources make it impossible for them to leave behind truly mature e-commerce talent.

The second is the timing, in the field of e-commerce several giants have been divided most of the market, leaving little chance of wandering flies and move.

In response to these two disadvantages, Song made three suggestions to Wanda E-commerce:

1, do not learn Jingdong and Alibaba, Wanda must combine their own advantages out of a unique innovation model, so powerful offline resources learn other e-commerce is not necessary;

2, Wang Jianlin play closer to real estate developers to play, spend 10 bucks to buy land, you have to bring back the benefits of 10 bucks, spend 5 billion to buy, you have to bring back the benefits of 5 billion, Wanda We must learn to weaken the capital-oriented, more respect for consumers, the growth of e-commerce is not around the money but the user needs;

3, we must recruit a group of brain more active Internet talent, we must give them more chances of trial and error.