Wang Qing: Real Estate recovery currency appreciation into capital market rising new impetus

Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Greater China, holds a Ph. D. in economics from the University of Maryland and a master's and bachelor's degree from Renmin University.　　Worked as an economist at the International Monetary Fund to analyze the economic situation of countries in Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. "If 09 is a policy-driven growth, next year is likely to be the growth of real estate and related consumption," he said. "The heat in Beijing has not affected the enthusiasm of the people, and hundreds of of investors have come to hear the investment report of Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Greater China."　　Wang Qing believes that the real estate industry will further boost the economic recovery, the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to bring new liquidity to the stock market. Real estate recovery to boost economic development Wang said the problems facing the Chinese economy are fundamentally different from those in Europe and the United States, and the low level of asset and liability of the government and residents determines the potential of China's economic recovery. "The theme for 2009 years is policy-driven investment expansion, which leads to economic growth," he said. With the emergence of government investment and related policy effects, the economy has seen rapid growth, a trend that will accelerate in the coming months. In Wang Qing's view, the more noteworthy is the latest developments in real estate.　　In his view, from the comprehensive data, real estate sales this year has been a strong rebound, according to the sales lead 6 months to calculate, real estate in the second half of this year will see a clear recovery, real estate construction area is likely to rise in 2010. The housing recovery has led investors to see real estate as a new driver of economic growth after government investment.　　Wang Qing believes that, from the current domestic consumption data, with real estate related building materials, decoration, furniture and other industries have increased, the real estate industry pulling role can not be overlooked. Liquidity will add a "fresh force", Wang Qing said, noting that the expected liquidity from the renminbi's appreciation is likely to further boost capital markets.　　"From 2005 to 2007, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate was an important factor affecting market investment, but after the renminbi was pegged to the dollar in July 2008, the factor gradually faded out of the city." He believes investors will begin to look at the "decoupling" of the renminbi from the dollar by the end of next year. "As the dollar goes down, if the renminbi does not change against the dollar, the renminbi will become an emerging national currency that does not appreciate the dollar in the next six to 12-18 months, and that means a devaluation of the renminbi against a basket of currencies." But this is not sustainable.　　"Wang believes that policy may continue to keep the renminbi pegged to the dollar but does not affect the market's expectations of a stronger renminbi, which is now reflected in the forward market."　　Wang said this would once again lead to inflows of international hot money, which would have an impact on domestic capital markets, although the market is not paying much attention. Inflation is hard to come up against in the short term, and Wang believes it will be difficult to see clear inflation over the next 12 months. "Some people think that monetary easing will trigger inflation byBut the relationship between money and inflation has been undermined when the economy has been hit hard by the crisis. Because with the contraction of exports, export products were transferred to the domestic market, there is oversupply, there is no room for price increases.　　He said that every decline in exports since 1997 has led to deflation, and that exports are still not improving and inflation will not occur anytime soon. "In the short term inflationary pressures are not significant, which determines that current economic policies will not be reversed." Wang said that the domestic economy has just recovered, the possibility of transforming economic policy is very good at the same time, the overseas economic environment is still not optimistic, which also reduces the possibility of policy adjustment. "Overall, at least until the October this year, the macroeconomic level of industrial production, consumption, investment, foreign trade and other data will be improved by month." And in the meantime, economic policy has been hard to change. But Wang also reminded investors to focus on possible interest rate hikes by foreign central banks, which could partly affect market expectations for global investors.