Warmer said that the property market regulation can not be lightly relaxed

Real Estate macro-control has been 5 months.　　After a sharp fall in trading volume at the beginning of the regulation, into the September, from the data alone, the property market seems to be warming up. According to the Beijing Real estate Transaction Management Network statistics show that 2010 commercial residential daily average of the highest in April, up to 331 sets.　　The average daily deal in early September of this year was close to the data, reaching 322 sets. In the macro-control background, the property market "Golden nine silver Ten" tradition is still continuing. So, "the property market warms up", "the regulation relaxes" and so on various news recently began frequently.　　Whether the real estate macro-control will continue, become a hot topic discussed by all parties. According to statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, 30 cities in the country, 26 cities in the real estate transactions in the chain Rose, of which 11 cities rose more than 50%.　　BEIJING-Shanghai Sui deep four real estate market turnover, is the first time since the regulation of collective rise.　　Faced with these data, a number of analysis agencies believe that the property market does not exist on the basis of recovery. Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network September 1 to 12th statistics show that Beijing's "New Deal" after the start of the pre-sale of the total number of projects 85, the total supply of houses total 30214 sets.　　As of September 12, the total number of signed 14625 sets, the signing rate of 48.4%. However, careful analysis of the data can be found in the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in the first 12 days, the 85 pre-sale projects, the majority of the housing contracted to focus on a few projects. Among them, there are 18 items of turnover in more than 11 sets, the 18 items of turnover, the new deal after the sale of the total volume of sales up to 88.6%.　　And there are as many as 31 projects, which remained for zero during this period. Why are the structural differences so big? I love my family. Hu Jinghui, vice president of real estate brokerage company Holding company, told reporters that the rise in the trading volume was mainly due to the release of short-term home demand.　　For example, near the beginning of school, some families need "district room", September, October is the traditional period of marriage, many people to buy a house for marriage. "September turnover rose, can only be understood as, since the macro-control since the decline in turnover has slowed."　　"Hu Jinghui said. After the country issued a strict macro-control policy in April, the Beijing property market turnover sharply shrank.　　Since May, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing has probably fallen by 15%. "Can only say that macro-control has some results, some areas of house prices have a certain fall, but in the ordinary people's view, and did not feel the obvious decline in house prices."　　"Hu Jinghui said, the property market bubble is far from being squeezed out, at this stage, whether the government departments or ordinary buyers, the effect of regulation is not satisfactory.　　Based on the above analysis, Hu Jinghui that this round of macro-control policy will not withdraw from the market, will continue. The previous rounds of macro-control in the property market, often just have a little effect, control measures on the withdrawal, leading to price retaliation. "Government departments have learned these lessons and will not withdraw their controls when there is no significant increase in supply."　　"Hu Jinghui said. Such aJudgment, in several real estate research institutions and intermediary agencies are prevalent.　　In the view of these institutions, if there is a certain rise in property prices in September, leading to price rises, then the government will have to introduce more stringent regulation.　　Analysis that there are a variety of factors also do not support the rise in housing prices. From the flow of funds, according to the public data, developers are generally tight funds, the first half of the real estate listed companies in the debt of nearly 800 billion yuan, and operating activities cash flow is-83.756 billion yuan, and the same period last year was 41.806 billion yuan. The Big four real estate bibcock, Poly, Vanke, gold land and investment real estate cash flow are negative.　　Once policies such as development loans tighten, developers may choose to slash prices. In the first half of the year, more than 90% of real estate listed companies failed to complete 50% of the sales target. The gradual increase in the number of starts and the number of completed projects also makes the market more likely to be oversupply in the second half.　　The supply and demand situation in the property market may turn at the end of the year.　　Pan Shiyi, chairman of Soho China, boldly predicted that housing prices would return to the level of early 2009, due to increased housing supply in the second half of the year, security housing to the market, a series of regulatory measures to allow developers to fund tight, will lead to the price of developers to survive. "This round of macro-control not only to solve the housing price problem, there are some structural problems need to be resolved, such as real estate tax and other institutional policies are intensifying research, will not easily end regulation."　　"Hu Jinghui said.　　Since the end of April, the real estate macro-control, not without controversy, there is a view that the high prices should be pressed down, there is also a view that the collapse of house prices will have a negative impact on the economy. Hu Jinghui told reporters that in July when the market is still in a state of stalemate, the government department of Real estate regulation will not affect economic growth there are different views.　　Despite the central position to insist on regulation, but in the actual implementation of the differences. "The pressure of the public opinion is very big, the government's decision-making cannot but consider the public opinion, however sometimes excessively considers the public opinion pressure, the decision will appear certain deviation."　　"Dong Fan, director of the BNU Real Estate Research Center. Mr Cao, director of the Research Institute of Investment and Marketing at Cass, said the government was overly concerned about the negative effects of falling house prices, which would be illusory if there were no further tax policies. "In the period of the property market, it is very important to lead the expectations." "he said.