Whether the policy inflection point is coming

The real estate transaction volume continues to climb, the house price jumps forward, the developer frantically takes the reappearance, the Earth King frequency out ... The recent rise in the property market has allowed industry experts to worry about the new bubbles that might be brought. Meanwhile, the wind of tightening two of mortgages around the world has sparked a new round of macro-control expectations.　　Whether the housing market is about to face policy inflection point has become the focus of the industry. The price Zisheng the property market has experienced a "downturn" in the past year, and this year's real estate markets show signs of rapid recovery. From 1 to May this year, the sale of commercial houses soared with the influence of the developers ' price promotion and a series of bailout policies.　　Data show that the city's April commercial housing network signed 20,000 sets, this level has exceeded the hot market in the same period of 2007, a record high. Getting out of the trough and attacking quickly is not just volume. Data show that in 4 May this year, Beijing increased the number of projects up to 36, of which the largest increase of more than 5000 yuan/square meters. By June, prices have become a common phenomenon in the capital market.　　And in last year's downturn, there are countless items to choose from to cut prices for sales. The real estate market in this round of recovery, also reflected in the land market. The developer's enthusiasm for land has risen again, leading to the culmination of a deal from May to June and a rapid rise in land prices.　　From the 1.022 billion-dollar income of the estate, 10th, Cheng ze Chengdu by the 1.96 billion yuan to the Olympic Village to live in rural land, to 4.06 billion yuan sky-high by the Franshion won the Kwong Qu Road 15th, sky-high king to dizzying speed constantly appear. Market analysts believe that since November 2008 the government has taken a number of positive policies to promote demand, including interest rate cuts, mortgage rate discounts to 30%, cancellation of bank credit quotas and lower stamp duty and other property transaction taxes, and the release of pent-up demand last year, The double factor causes this year the real estate exchange market to be hot.　　In addition, Zenggang, director of the Banking Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the reporter that the influx of credit funds is an important cause of the real estate market boom. The rapid recovery has sparked "bubbles" of concern. In recent months, excess liquidity has led to strong investor expectations of domestic inflation, and in a financial environment of broad credit and low interest rates, there has been a marked increase in investment demand, as well as a bubble in boosting housing prices.　　"Beijing Years Foundation Construction Investment Co., Ltd. General manager Huang in an interview with the real estate market, the rapid recovery of the" bubble "to give affirmation. Beijing Yang Shaofeng, general manager of the Quartet real estate brokerage company also believes that the recent rapid "irrational" rise in housing prices, the recent settlement of land prices more than the surrounding area of the housing price and other phenomena, all indicate that the property market bubble has been an indisputable fact. And, "prices will continue to rise in the second half of the year, is expected to rise by about 20%, when the bubble will be blown even greater." Reporter investigation found that right nowWhether there is a "bubble" problem has become the focus of controversy in the industry. Despite the "bubble theory" of the industry, but there are some analysts believe that the current housing market bubble composition does not accumulate too much. "In fact, some projects with poor traffic conditions have not seen a drastic rise in prices," he said. The price increases are still dominated by the relatively convenient areas of central or suburban traffic, where the existing value or expected value can support the rise in house prices.　　Guo Yi, marketing Director of the Asia-ho institution, told reporters. Experts and scholars on the property market "bubble" is more cautious attitude. "The bubble's standard is very vague, so the current property market is not a bad judge of bubbles." In addition, due to the regional characteristics of the real estate market, different cities are not the same. "The land premium is indeed high, but the land king is a minority, and not every city is prevalent, so it cannot be judged as a bubble in the second half of the property market," said Chen Kwok-keung, director of Peking University's real Estate Institute. "Signal frequency out of control expectations strong" in the first half of the market part of overheating, it is likely to trigger the second half of policy regulation. Huang said that recently, Hangzhou and other cities two sets of mortgage policy tightened, played a signal of policy regulation. Chen, general manager of the Chinese Olympic Garden in the webcast, revealed that the recent policy tightening expectations strongly, "the first thing to go to work is to quickly meet the study, usually do not sign the sign quickly, with the bank for loans, all the loans for the quick release." Reporter in the interview learned that the industry for the second half of the regulation and control policy has a general expectation, the direction of regulation is expected to "from the acceleration of land market supply, tightening financial policy aspects." But for rigid expectations of policy, most analysts believe that tough austerity will not be forthcoming in the short term, given the important role of real estate investment in the overall economic recovery. "The government is in the midst of a dilemma and there is no obvious improvement in external demand, and even if new policies are introduced, structural adjustments will never be turned." "In fact, the industry's expectations of this round of regulation have begun to fall to some extent," he said. As early as June 30, on the day of the 15th Kwong Wan Road, the king of the huge deal, a person in the industry said in an interview, "The irrational land market will soon map to the real estate market, the government will certainly have action." "And just this week, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Land Research director Kingjing in the Ministry of Land," the current land market situation Analysis Experts Symposium, said Beijing will adopt "more storage and quick supply" of the land strategy to control the frequent occurrence of the king, finally to stabilize the role of property prices. According to the plan, Beijing will supply 1000 hectares of land in the second half of the year, and will be mainly residential land, including ordinary housing and policy housing projects.　　At the same time invest 100 billion yuan for land reserve. All this, perhaps, is just the beginning. Morning reporter Yang Shumeng deep analysis to eliminate the impact of bubbles on ordinary people is to deepen the adjustment of housing supply system "to the market, the housing estate to the government." "A houseThe lawyer gave a prescription for the problems that appeared in the real estate market. An obvious reason, the protection of the lack of housing, will directly lead to the unreasonable expansion of commercial housing market demand, the promotion of house prices will also play a direct role in promoting. In fact, from the last round of property regulation began, the Government has gradually and continuously increased the supply of housing protection.　　Once the multi-level housing supply system is perfected, the risks of the market level are naturally borne by the developers and investors, while the ordinary people do not have to bear the bubble hidden danger of high housing prices. In the past 5 years of policy regulation and control of the central bank for the first time in nine years to raise interest rates. March 17, 2005 the central bank raised interest rates again, adjusting mortgage rate. March 26, 2005, April 27, the State Council promulgated the new and old "State eight", to stabilize the housing prices, adjust the structure of the housing supply gave guidance advice. May 17, 2006 "State Six" issued. The contents include the adjustment of the structure of housing supply and the adjustment of tax, credit and land policies. May 29, 2006 September 27, 2007, the central bank, the CBRC issued the "on the strengthening of commercial real estate credit management notice." September 16, 2008, October 9 October 30, November 27, December 23 October 22, 2008 the Ministry of Finance, the State administration of taxation and the central bank issued policies to reduce deposit and loan financial interest rates, tax relief on real estate transactions, and lower down payment on mortgages. The State Council promulgated the "on the adjustment of housing supply structure to stabilize housing prices," The Nine ministries "15", in the size of the cover, the proportion of small huxing, new house first payment, etc. to make quantitative provisions, put forward a double 70% standard. The central bank cut lending rates five times.