Zhangbao decryption of GDP and demand for electricity

Economic Watch reporter Vechengwu China's GDP grew by 6.1% in the first quarter of this year, while electricity consumption was negative compared with the same period last year, and some media outlets have raised some questions about the phenomenon.　　The Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zhang Zhang, the National Energy Agency, explained in detail the reasons behind this phenomenon at a press conference held on June 1. As a leading indicator, electricity generation and power consumption are often used to measure activity of economic activities.　　But from the first quarter of China's economic data, year-on-year growth in GDP and electricity consumption year-on-year decline formed a sharp contrast. Zhangbao analysis of the causes of this phenomenon is mainly. First, the power consumption of the second industry to GDP growth contribution rate is declining; second, peeling products to inventory; third, technological progress, energy-saving industry has achieved results.　　In addition, Zhangbao said, this phenomenon in fact in other countries in the process of economic development has also appeared.　　The second industry's contribution to GDP fell in the first quarter of this year, and China's three-time industry structure has changed considerably. In the first quarter of this year, the value of three industries increased by 3.5%, 5.3% and 7.4% respectively year-on-year, which means that the first quarter increase is 3.5%, the second production increase 5.3%, the tertiary industry increase is 7.4%. In the same period last year, China's second industry added a value of 11.5%, that is, the second industry this year than the same period last year a significant decline of 6.2%, the first quarter of the third year, the increase in the tertiary sector increased by more than secondary 2.1%, the industry's share of GDP, last year was 42.7% The industry's share of GDP rose to 44.3% in the first quarter of this year. Industrial growth accounted for a share of GDP, from 46% in the same period last year, down to 44.1% this year. This is reflected in electricity consumption, the first quarter of the total consumption of the whole society decreased by 32.4 Billion-kilowatt, which is mainly secondary, reduced by 51.61 billion kwh. At the same time, primary electricity consumption increased by 978 million kwh, the tertiary industry power consumption increased by 7.017 billion kwh. Electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 11.21 billion kwh.　　So from this data to see, primary, tertiary industry and urban and rural residents of electricity is increased, but only secondary electricity consumption is reduced. In addition, the structure of the industrial interior has changed a lot. Heavy industry is usually a large consumer of electricity, accounting for roughly 80% of industrial electricity. Light industry increased by 6.8% in the first quarter of this year, while heavy industry grew only 4.5% per cent year-on-year. In the same period last year, light industry increased by 14.7% in the first quarter, while heavy industry grew by 17.3%, while heavy industry overtook light industry in the first quarter of this year, and light industry overtook heavy industry in the first quarter. In the first quarter of this year, peeling heavy industry fell even more, from 1 to April, light industry growth of 7%, heavy industry growth of 4.9%, especially in the first quarter of this year, steel, non-ferrous, chemical, the most energy-consuming high load energy industry decline relatively large. This is also a change in the structure of electricityImportant reason. For example, in the high-energy industries, there is also the oil processing and coking industry is negative, the first quarter of this year is minus 5.4%, such as non-ferrous metals and ferrous metals growth is very small, only 0.3%. So these energy-consuming industries to pull the entire social power consumption has dropped 3.61 points. Conversely, some companies that consume less power are growing faster. For example, information manufacturing grew 15.5%, the chemical industry grew 14%, biological and biochemical products grew by 17.2%, and communication exchange equipment increased by 34.7%, the processing industry related to the livelihood of the agricultural and sideline products grew by 15.5%, and the beverage increased by 10.6%.　　Energy-consuming industries have fallen a lot, but those that do not consume energy are relatively fast growing in relation to people's livelihood, so this also affects the amount of electricity consumed.　　Peeling products to inventory of high load-carrying products to inventory, but also lead to energy consumption, electricity consumption and GDP growth is inconsistent. Affected by the international financial crisis, such as steel, non-ferrous social demand is decreasing, its price is also decreasing, this time the enterprise inventory is increasing. Later, the country adopted a series of policies to stimulate economic development, increased investment, the demand for such investment goods, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, is beginning to rebound. The demand for these picks is not all in the current period, but rather they are taking part of the inventory to supply the community. For example, the steel-production inventory index, which ended 6 months of sustained gains, began to fall. In October, the stock index was 65.8%, down to 45% by November and down to 37.5% in December.　　So this means that part of the social demand comes from their past inventories, not the current production, which shows that GDP is growing, but that some of the energy consumed is past energy consumption, not current energy consumption.　　Energy-saving effect of obvious technology in progress, the industry has achieved results. For example, the first quarter of this year, such as metallurgy, non-ferrous metals, petrochemical, chemical, pharmaceutical and other traditional industries, energy consumption fell 7% year-on-year. In the energy sector has been very prominent, because of the adoption of a big pressure on the small, shut down some of the high energy consumption of small enterprises, so the power industry's own consumption of electricity decreased by 7.66%, and the loss of line losses by 8.44%.　　These two parts accounted for 12.12% of the total electricity consumption in the whole society, saving 94.6 Billion-kilowatt kwh of electricity. Zhang stressed that the problem of economic growth and electricity consumption is not synchronized, in fact, the international economic cycle is often a phenomenon, not only in China. For example, U.S. GDP grew by 0.8% in 2001, and electricity consumption in the United States fell by 3.6% in 2001. In Japan, electricity consumption fell by 1.3% in 2003, while GDP grew by 1.8%. South Korea's electricity consumption rose by 5.4% in 1980, while GDP fell by 1.5%. "Because I've been working in this field for years, and I've been doing this for years.China's GDP since 50 and the relationship between electricity consumption, I would like to introduce you. In these 50 years, the relationship between GDP and electricity growth, we call the elasticity coefficient, sometimes as high as 1.5, low to 1.3, the difference is very large, it seems that there is no law, in fact, there are laws. From 1850 to 1860, 1860 to 1870, 1870 to 1880, 1880 to 1890, every ten years you go through it, it must be exactly the same, all 0.8. ”