Zhou Tianyong: The next 30 years should be clear how to common prosperity

Guo Lichen Jiang Aixin China in the 2010, is in the historical development of the joint point: outside, after the financial crisis era external needs to stimulate economic growth model has been unsustainable, including the key period of GDP per capita of 4000 dollars, social contradictions in the process of urbanization, the expectations of the reform and anxiety and other factors of mutual influence and stalemate. How to relieve stress and explore motivation?　　People are looking forward to the key words "transforming the way of economic development" and "inclusive growth". In this critical period of reform, whether to properly handle the relationship between growth and income distribution, or correctly deal with the relationship between fairness and efficiency, are testing the vision and ability of policymakers.　　In such a new historical era, in the face of difficult problems, how to seek truth from facts, look to the long term, adhere to scientific development, so that most people share the achievements of development, should become the long-term thinking of the rulers. Around these issues, the "first financial daily" interview with the Central Party School, deputy director of the Zhou Tianyong.　　He always insists on facing the problem with the idea of reform. First Financial daily: the CPC Central Committee on the formulation of the 12th five-year plan for national Economic and Social Development (hereinafter referred to as the "recommendations"), the first scientific development in the thematic form in the five-year plan explicitly proposed. In your opinion, what are the characteristics and meanings of the times? At the same time, in this 20,000-word "proposal", there is no mention of any "quantitative" indicators, the basic direction, strategic objectives.　　How do you interpret this?　　Zhou Tianyong: China's economic development in the first 30 years has focused heavily on GDP growth, largely through energy consumption, resources, and environmental opportunities. "Scientific concept of development" is to talk about a number of co-ordination: the overall planning of urban and rural development, overall regional development, overall economic and social development, co-ordinating the harmonious development of human and nature, integrated domestic development and opening-up.　　This formulation implies a significant change in the development of the next five years. As for the absence of a reference to "quantitative" indicators in the recommendations, I think this is a great step forward. Because in China, once the central set up indicators, there will be from the central to the local, Shengar phenomenon, but the impact of "scientific development." For example, if the central government next year GDP growth rate of 9%, to the provincial city may be 12%, prefecture-level cities may be 15%, to the county or even 20%. This kind of index overweight and compare more serious.　　Therefore, I think it is important to downplay the growth indicators, that is, to eliminate the Shengar and the comparison of local indicators. Daily: You mentioned the distortion of central policy to local enforcement, Huang Jing, a scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, described the distortions, such as the "Energy saving and emission reduction" directives from the central government, where it became a widespread power rationing.　　In the next 5 years, how do you think the problem of deviation between central and local implementation is solved?　　Zhou Tianyong: The central government should use more tax, price and other mechanisms to regulate the economy, but not simply by issuing indicators. The release of indicators, in fact, is the planned economy era of administrative means, which often leadsTo the local government to achieve the indicators by administrative means.　　Therefore, the "Twelve-Five" period should pay more attention to energy conservation and emission reduction of these mechanisms, such as prices, taxes and so on.　　Overall, China's economy has grown strongly over the past 30 years, with the central and local governments in comparison, the main force has come from local governments and cannot be said to be the central government's push.　　Because, first, the local government has the land resources; second, local governments have a competition for GDP comparisons, and third, local governments are keen on such measures as financing platforms and attracting capital.　　In fact, China's rapid economic growth in the past 30 years, from the perspective of administrative promotion, the local government competition and local government use of land resources and financing platform, investment and so on are the most important sources. Daily newspaper: This year is the "dilemma" problem in particular a year, such as restructuring and growth, the appreciation of the renminbi and exports, long-term development and short-term goals, insurance employment and scientific and technological innovation, there are issues of how to coordinate and balance.　　In your opinion, what are the specific reasons for the formation of these "dilemmas"?　　Zhou Tianyong: The Formation of "dilemma" problem, mainly is "scientific development" in the face of specific national conditions may need to compromise. "Dilemma" may exist in three areas: one is macro-control, the other is economic development, the third is reform and people's livelihood.　　There are a lot of "dilemmas" in these three areas. Macro-control areas such as stabilizing prices and increasing employment, raising interest rates and appreciating the renminbi. Economic development is the relationship between structural adjustment and growth rate. At present, China is in the stage of heavy chemical and economic development, and now it is a dilemma to change the path of new industrialization. Because, the path of the new industrialization means that the structure should be light, the consumption of resource energy should be reduced. But our national conditions determine that China is still in the heavy chemical industry stage.　　To build a large number of housing, high-speed railway highways, cement, to build wealth through the development of manufacturing, but the development of equipment manufacturing industry will consume energy. In the "dilemma" of reform and people's livelihood, our country's land, fresh water, food and other resources are not enough. We have imported the equivalent of 580 million acres of oil last year, and last year the domestic sown area of 2.3 billion acres. In fact, if the oil is also counted as grain, 95% of the food to be self-sufficient line has been broken. But the future of urban, residential, transportation and other construction needs to occupy land.　　On freshwater, food, land, to let people form a sense of thrift, only through the price and tax, but after the increase in the lives of ordinary people have an impact, but these have to change, this is the livelihood and reform dilemma. In the field of income and distribution, we insist on public ownership as the main body, but the most important force leading to the polarization of income distribution is the state-owned economy. The monopoly of state-owned enterprises, state-owned financial monopoly and state-owned land system are important factors to promote polarization.　　But we must insist on the political public ownership, but also in the income distribution to not let these factors lead to polarization, this is the biggest "dilemma." Many of the "dilemma" are determined by the national conditions, such as the number of people with less, it is necessary to let people live happilyBlessed life, but less resources. The government needs to curb excessive resource consumption through high taxes and high prices, but when it comes to tax increases, there is a lot of resistance from the people. Second, some of the past reforms, some of which are wrong and change not in place, resulting in a gradual accumulation of the "dilemma" problem. Third, we uphold the system and the system that leads to inequitable distribution.　　For example, just said the state-owned system of public ownership led to the problem of polarization.　　Daily: How do we stick to the scientific development to solve these "dilemmas"? Zhou Tianyong: The first is "to act according to the law." For example, the shift of population from rural to urban areas is a major trend. The key problem is that the urban-rural gap is too big. The big gap lies in the increasing proportion of wealth created in agriculture. Narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas can only be achieved by shifting part of the workforce to cities, allowing fewer races to land. Again such as the law of industrial upgrading, industrial areas must be large enterprises and small enterprises coexist, light large enterprises without small enterprises there is no local employment. There is also the law of industrial change, that is, when the per capita income reaches a certain level, the development ratio of services to a certain extent. If the service sector is not developed, the employment population will not be able to enter the industry.　　Only the development of large industries-large industry is capital-intensive industry, ignoring the development of small industrial enterprises and services, the latter is labor-intensive enterprises, the result is a lot of capital distribution, labor distribution is less, income distribution gap. Second, the field of the prospective, early change than late change better, thoroughly change than compromise better. This mainly depends on the courage of our party and the government.　　If the reform is always backward, the system will form a thick pattern of interests. Also, if the compromise should have been completely changed, it will bring a lot of "dilemma" problem.　　For example, if the housing system reform, if the first levy on property, that is, if the increase in wages at the same time the introduction of a property tax, willing to live more tax, rather than to learn from the past in Hong Kong, then there is not much pressure. Since the reform was not thorough at that time, our real estate is low-income people to pay the government, high-income people accumulate wealth: first, many generations of farmers to allow the government to thirty thousand or forty thousand Yuan/mu of low price to take away, and finally reselling to 1 million or 2 million/MU, making a big financial income is from the farmers take money; Many people have been working in cities for 5 years and 10, but they are facing higher prices, and these people have to pass loans to hand over government land concessions.　　At the same time, some rich people buy the house very early, now the price rises, but do not pay the corresponding tax. Therefore, our land and house policy is typical for poor people to pay to keep the local government financially functioning while the rich do not pay.　　However, foreign countries are the reverse, they do not have any land transfer money, there is no collective land to be levied for state-owned land, is in the market transactions, the government received VAT is over. A good example of "early change" than "late change" comes from the state-owned banks and the state-owned financial system. This is not considered in the recommendations, which may be a longer-term issue. Originally, the profits of state-owned industrial and commercial enterprises should be paid to the State 10% or so are already few, but the state-owned financial enterprises do not pay a penny to the state. Since 1997, we have not accepted the profits of state-owned businesses, so can we get 80% of the profits from him now?　　These have formed a powerful interest group.　　Again, such as the issue of resource tax, if the beginning of the oil, coal and other resources tax rate, with this reserve funds, now some resources-oriented cities to transform the problem is a good solution.　　Daily: These reforms were not resolved at the time, what are the main reasons? Zhou Tianyong: I think the most important reason is that we do not have a better overall design of the reform, or the lack of a matching design, resulting in a lot of reform in the immediate disregard of the past, many of the remaining problems before.　　This is largely due to a lack of coordination and forward-looking reform programmes.　　For example, the real estate field of land "Strokes hang" is, an auction is 70 years, the city's land in 10 years all sold out, then the next 60 years from where the money? I think that regardless of the political system or economic reform, there should be a whole package, that is, the co-ordination of all aspects. Some solutions cannot be compromised, and compromises will be endless.　　At present, our reform or policy design is lack of comprehensive, long-term, supporting nature. Daily: The emphasis on scientific development is certainly due to the existence of many phenomena that do not conform to the scientific development. For example, in terms of GDP growth, too much emphasis on growth, but ignores the use of resources efficiency; For example, Wenchuan and other places, such as the rush to restore the construction, but did not consider the secondary disaster caused by earthquakes, resulting in the building of the house was washed away by debris flow.　　Similar phenomena occur frequently, and what are the reasons for this, apart from the problem of the officials ' assessment mechanism? Zhou Tianyong: Local government officials, even if they do not assess, there are two hard tasks: first, to the local economy bigger; second, revenue.　　The fiscal revenue is hard indicators, the government must pay wages, must make the construction and so on, no money is not good.　　I do not mean that the increase in revenue is not right, the key is that our current financial system is not right, for example, why the local land finance, because the more the more the more revenue, we have in the real estate sector has designed such a expansion of land use and eating children's rice system. In many modern financial system countries, the provincial government a very important tax is the consumption tax, as well as the property tax. For example, a place where even a factory is not built, but as long as someone here to buy things, smoking will have to pay taxes, in the residential area to buy a property tax. But in China, even the excise tax on tobacco and alcohol is collected from factories and not from people who smoke.　　Therefore, if the local government does not go to industrial projects, there is no source of revenue. Therefore, not only the land policy has the problem, our tax system also has the question, or said, the tax structure, the financial system is unreasonable. Therefore, the local government only has to start the enterprise to have the tax, the service industry has not much tax, cannot feed the government. Therefore, this stage more emphasis on corporate tax and land transfer gold, no one to do business, no one to invest, to sell,There is a problem with the finances of local governments.　　However, if reform is to be done, it may face some difficulties in implementation. In China, if a excise tax is levied from an enterprise, the tax authorities are easy to enforce. But if you pay taxes when you buy cigarettes from every citizen, you may get a tax evasion. This is related to our national tax, financial modernization degree is limited. In many countries, you go to eat, because through credit consumption, it is easy to levy a 10% consumption tax.　　In China, there is a large number of do not invoice, through cash transactions and not through credit card transactions. Daily: According to the recommendations, "Twelve-Five" planning, the proportion of social and ecological indicators will rise, the proportion of economic indicators will decline, similar formulation, but also includes the emphasis on income distribution reform.　　What are the changes that reflect the idea of governance? Zhou Tianyong: What we have focused on in the past 30 years is economic development, from Comrade Xiaoping's saying "What is socialism". I think what he said at the time was mainly that after liberation we thought of class warfare as socialism and the development of productive forces as capitalism. It is in this sense that comrade Xiaoping has not made it clear. In the past 30 years, Comrade Xiaoping put forward some questions about socialism that we have solved, we must develop socialism, poverty is not socialism.　　But at the same time, Comrade Xiaoping also put forward that the meaning of socialism is two: one is to develop productive forces, one is common prosperity.　　The second is actually the development of productive forces how to let the social fairness, justice, so that people live well, income distribution and other equity, that is, common prosperity. However, how to achieve common prosperity, we are not too clear in these 30 years.　　Previously said to uphold public ownership to achieve common prosperity, it seems that I just mentioned the three "state-owned" is to promote polarization. Therefore, we should first act according to the law, the transfer of the farmers to transfer out, so that agriculture to improve labor productivity, let the service industry to develop to make people have employment opportunities. Second, reform, especially taxation, should be reformed to form a fair system to encourage entrepreneurship.　　Finally, social undertakings, people's livelihood. We have created a miracle of productivity development in the first 30 years and understood the meaning of "poverty is not socialism". In the next 30 years, we should understand how to do well the cause of people's livelihood, achieve common prosperity, and achieve justice and fairness. In this way, we need to find out how to make socialism under the system of modern market economy, that is, to adjust the structure by means of the national management of modern economy, to solve the problem by law and to realize the new socialist society with the methods of taxation, finance, public service and Social Security, Instead of developing the state-owned system in the planned economy system, we can realize common prosperity.