ZTE: First Rob Bai

Sina tip: This article belongs to the Research Report column, only for the analysis of a stock of personal views and views, and the unofficial news report, Sina does not guarantee its authenticity and objectivity, all relevant to the stock of effective information to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange of the announcement as prevail, please investors pay attention to risk.　　Investor newspaper (reporter Sho Junsu) The advent of the 3G era, so that mobile communications equipment manufacturers to compete in 2009 to achieve the incandescent. ZTE (000063.SZ) in the relevant 3G industry 160 billion investment this year, will be able to finally get nearly billions of contract shares.　　This year's performance is undoubtedly a strong promoter, it is expected that its 2009 net profit will reach more than 2 billion yuan, the year-on-year growth of more than 20%.　　In the next 2010, there will be more than 120 billion yuan to the 3G industry, the conservative forecast ZTE can still be divided into a corresponding 8 billion yuan share, and ensure that its performance continues to grow steadily 20%.　　By participating in the market snatch war in the early 3G, ZTE can gain steady growth gains by expanding market share, on the other hand, it will bring lasting benefit to the expansion, maintenance and upgrade of the construction projects in the future.　　Therefore, ZTE's strategy is clear: make every effort to adopt ultra-low price strategy, dominate the 3G market giants.　　Acquisition of 3G Bai 2009 will become the peak of 3G investment, China Unicom, Mobile, telecom three operators total about more than 160 billion yuan in fixed assets investment. Including mobile TD Three, in the telecom CDMA 三、四期, China Unicom WCDMA II. From the current disclosure of information, ZTE is still the forefront of market share ranking leader.　　According to a rough estimate, ZTE can get nearly billions of contracts in the above bidding. According to people familiar with the matter, in May 4, China Mobile TD three wireless equipment bidding, ZTE won 18% of the market share. After Datang and Shanghai Bell (23%), Huawei (20%) ranked third. It is estimated that the total value of the three-phase equipment tender is about 8.6 billion yuan.　　To 18% of the market share, ZTE will be able to get 1.5 billion yuan orders. In addition to the above wireless equipment business bidding, there will be civil engineering, transmission equipment, test equipment, such as bidding, countless manufacturers are likely to be a piece of soup. "The wireless device 1.5 billion estimate, plus the follow-up bid, ZTE can at least get billions of."　　"Some telecom industry professionals speculate. China Unicom WCDMA Two phase of the tender, although there is no news, but people familiar with the matter, the manufacturer's share will be based on the share of the initial tender to allocate, no further tender.　　According to the WCDMA first-stage equipment bidding results, the amount of about 30 billion yuan, the market share is divided into: Huawei accounted for 30.6%, Ericsson accounted for 26.5%, ZTE accounted for 21.5%, according to this calculation, ZTE in China Unicom WCDMA two share should be around 20%. This year China Unicom in the total WCDMAInvestment of about 60 billion yuan, and China Mobile TD comparable.　　According to the distribution of its various projects, it is estimated that ZTE may end up with a share of billions of yuan contract. In addition, China Telecom will invest 47 billion yuan this year for C-Net construction. From last year, ZTE and China Telecom signed 1.33 billion yuan CDMA large single, "This year is sure to be slightly higher than this amount."　　"The above-mentioned telecommunications industry people judge.　　So, ZTE in the 2009 3G Market War, participate in mobile TD three (estimated billions of contract amount), China Unicom WCDMA II, (estimated billions of of the contract amount), the China Telecom CDMA 三、四期 (more than 1.33 billion), the total contract amount will exceed 10 billion yuan.　　"Low price + technology" This year 3G market share of the battle, ZTE in the cost advantage, adopted ultra-low price strategy.　　China Telecom TD in the first two period of exceeding the standard, ZTE 36% of the integrated market share leading other competitors, Datang followed by the second, Huawei is the third place. Ultra-low quotation combined with its own technical strength, become ZTE's competitive magic weapon. In May 4, China Mobile TD three equipment bidding, ZTE's quotation for 1.23~1.26 million/carrier, less than its TD two-phase tender when half.　　Does ultra-low prices affect corporate profits? In this connection, ZTE related people in the interview with the "investor" said: "The price guaranteed gross margin, due to TD three-year scale than the first two, plus technical progress, the expected cost will be lower."　　"Huawei's offer is only higher than ZTE, for 15,000 yuan/carrier, Datang Mobile This price decline is not much." "Now the key is to win market share, there will be maintenance, upgrades, expansion of a lot of future benefits."　　said the communications industry. Although in the TD three equipment bidding "opener", ZTE only won 18% of the market share, the subsequent bidding ZTE will still show a strong offensive status, Wanguo analyst Fanglu that "the company through Low-cost strategy, is highly expected to gain more than 30% of the market share."　　"Its overall share can still remain in the position of number one, number two."　　3G net profit increase of more than 20% due to the benefit of the 3G market share, ZTE in the next two years, its profits will be more than 20% of composite growth. "The successful completion of the 3G project will be completed in due time, as the three major operators are eager to build the network, and most of this year's projects are likely to be finished by the end of today." "Days of congenial communications industry analyst Kangzhiyi said.　　The majority of the tens of billions of orders that ZTE received in 3G this year will be reflected in the 2009 performance.　　And this is only the beginning, the Ministry of Business is expected to complete the 2009-2010-year 3G investment will reach 280 billion yuan, excluding this year's 160 billion yuan investment, 2010 3G investment will reach 120 billion yuan. According to market figures, ZTE's contract in 2010 was roughlyAbout 8 billion yuan, slightly less than 2009, but the two-year combined contract will still reach 18 billion yuan.　　Its revenue in the 3G business will increase its operating income by 40% in 2008 (2008 operating income of 44.293 billion yuan), plus other business growth, its operating income is expected to reach about 70 billion yuan in 2010. In this respect, Chase Securities analyst Cheng also expected, ZTE 2009, 2010 year operating income is 56.7 billion yuan, 67.35 billion yuan respectively, net profit is 2.179 billion yuan, 2.613 billion yuan respectively.　　Its 2009-year operating income and net profit will grow 28% and 31% year-on-year. Haitong Securities Chen Mifeng is more optimistic, the 2009-2010-year net profit of ZTE is expected to be 2.256 billion and 2.955 billion respectively, year-on-year growth of 35.9% and 30.98%.