Profitability of e-commerce and logistics express delivery

While Shan Ren's analysis shows that the Internet thinking is "hunting out the dog, and pig will pay for it ". Who do you agree?
With the popularization of online shopping, express delivery is gradually penetrating into people's daily life, and people are increasingly sensitive to price changes. In August 1, the prices of six express delivery companies in Chongqing increased. In less than half a year, there have been several joint price increases across the country. Price increases are basically for e-commerce companies.
Prisoner's Dilemma
The express delivery company unified the improvement of express delivery charging standards. In fact, it canceled the "agreement price" discount for e-commerce express delivery. During the price increase process of the express delivery group, multiple e-commerce enterprises have also jointly set up the anti-price increase alliance to resist the price increase behavior of express delivery enterprises.
With the rapid development of e-commerce in China, Shan Ren analyzed the background of the price increase of express delivery. In the three years from 2011 to 2013, the speed of express delivery has exceeded 50%. During the Double 11 shopping holiday in 2013, the number of express parcels reaches billion, which means the market is large.
However, express delivery companies have a low threshold and competition is fierce and disorderly. "Only a few people can get a few cars ". By the end of 2013, there were more than 10 thousand express delivery companies in China and more than 2 thousand private-registered companies. Shan Ren pointed out that several express delivery giants are running around the ground by joining the company. On the other hand, they are also subject to malicious low-price competition from many small companies. Because the price is a very sensitive factor, the price is high, and e-commerce and common people do not accept it, express delivery must not cut prices.
"For all express delivery companies, today is the era of high growth, and it is everywhere. Whoever enters the market without the price lever may be squeezed out ."
As a matter of fact, the three links, together with SF and China Post, account for 75% of the Chinese express delivery market, but the homogeneity is too strong, so the public only considers who to choose from the price. These forces Enterprises to fight only price wars.
Shan Ren said that the current market situation is the standard prisoner's dilemma and there is no solution.
He pointed out that in the future, the industry must be fiercely competitive, with a higher concentration. Shan Ren said that in the future, express delivery companies that lack innovation capabilities, personalization, and services will be eliminated.
Looking at Chinese commerce, many industries were unsuccessful in establishing alliances in the early days. The express delivery alliance is not legal and there is no way out. It is the right way to transform and upgrade the express delivery industry to improve internal strength.
Behind the Alliance of e-commerce and express delivery
Express delivery companies have a low threshold, and e-commerce enterprises are in this situation. In recent years, Chinese e-commerce has developed rapidly. In 2012, the growth rate of retail e-commerce reached 100%, and in 2013 it exceeded 80%, attracting many people to enter the field. Price wars are an important killer.
Once upon a time, express delivery and e-commerce presented a shared image of honor and disgrace to their outreach, and today this close relationship is being torn apart by interests.
Because in the relationship between the two, e-commerce is strong. E-commerce companies use the advantages of supply to suppress express prices and earn express fees.
"Express delivery is equivalent to an intermediate reservoir in e-commerce competition. It was originally in a trench with e-commerce companies ." Like e-commerce, express delivery is in the fierce competition and is at the end of the price war. Low value-added. Shan Ren said that this in turn makes many e-businesses suffer, and express delivery services will also affect e-commerce platforms.
So, when a large amount of capital enters, is upstream-downstream integration the development direction?
Shan Ren said that Jingdong e-commerce built logistics to reduce costs and ensure services. Haier's logistics system is also making outgoing orders, and the industry is constantly seeking for breakthroughs.
Competition for business models
Courier companies need to seek other profit points, and small affiliated Chamber of Commerce will gradually survive. Large express delivery companies need to manage themselves and stick to it in the game. The winner is the final one.
Shan Ren proposed that there are many ways to make a profit for express delivery companies:
First, there will be huge capital support in the future;
Second, the delivery payment mode helps e-businesses collect money, with a turnover of 7-14 days. Many large platforms do not make any profits, but rely on stranded funds to create profits for capital operation. At the same time, express delivery companies will create many models in the future to reduce the cost of the last mile;
Third, express delivery companies use stores to sell goods.
Ye Tan put forward different opinions in this regard. She believes that e-commerce and logistics companies are "out of service". "Chinese enterprises are funny. They can't make any money in their own industry. They all need to do this. Everyone is a huge bully. This shows that the industry is experiencing major problems ".
In Ye Tan's view, e-commerce is going to do logistics and produce televisions, while the express delivery company will sell goods in the community for a while and pay for it for a while. All enterprises will not work properly.
Isn't this expensive logistics making money? Labor, warehousing, transportation, and other intermediate costs are too high, logistics costs are rising, and the transfer costs of China's economy are too high. "Many business owners say they prefer to export data abroad, with a low cost and a short accounting period ."
In this regard, Shan Ren resolved that the Internet thinking "The wool is on the dog, and the pig will pay ".
According to the long tail theory, in the industrial society, cost control is to reduce varieties and concentrate as much as possible. In the information society, we should increase long tail categories to increase profits and income, that is, the biggest cost is the user acquisition cost, and the information arrival cost.
Shan Ren said that in the Internet world, every supplier manages a single product, but the user needs are diversified, breaking the previous single profit model. This is true for many industries.
Just like in the future, 80% of JD's profit will come from financial income, rather than the product price difference.
He predicted that Evergrande, the biggest player in the future, would be the strong, strong, and highly concentrated. If a Chinese e-commerce platform wants to have a large number of aircraft carriers like Google, Facebook, and Amazon, there must be no way out for a price war.