20-day increase of HK $50 billion hot money flood create Hong Kong "capital city"

Securities Times reporter Zhang today's Hong Kong stock market, "hot money" has been a frequently mentioned hot words. Whether it is retail or institutional investors, there is a "large influx of hot money into the stock market," the consensus. However, after the carnival, the "capital city" from hot money will go?　　In this regard, insiders believe that short-term "hot money" will not ebb, but in 7 August or will see the real chapter. 20-day increase of 50 billion in the industry's view, the most intuitive evidence of the influx of hot money into Hong Kong is the increasing balance of the banking system, which is the statistics of the Hong Kong HKMA. The HKMA has been sucking in the dollar and throwing the Hong Kong dollar in order to maintain the linked exchange rate system and prevent the Hong Kong dollar from wearing a 7.75-strong exchange guarantee. In May, the HKMA has recorded a record number of banking system balances: May 6-The HKMA put Hong Kong dollars on the market and sold HK $8.525 billion to increase the balance of the banking system to HK $205.608 billion, the first time over $200 billion over the past year; May 11-The HKMA will inject capital again　　The banking system balances to $225.3 billion, May 12-The HKMA injected another $5.038 billion, the banking system balances to about $240 billion, and May 25-the total bank balance was up to 257 billion. As for why a lot of "hot money" has poured into Hong Kong, JPMorgan's managing director and China Securities Market Chairman Jing Ulrich believe that this is because international investors are now basically in line with the outlook for their economies, and agree that China's economic recovery should be faster than most countries.　　However, because of the limited channel of foreign funds to direct investment in mainland China, and the relatively sound monetary system in Hong Kong and the strong backing of the mainland economy, the Hong Kong market with large listed mainland enterprises is bound to become the focus of international investors.　　Tao, chief economist of Credit Suisse Asia, said the decline reflected optimism about the global economic recovery, leaving the "safe haven" to return to higher returns. In the "hot money" under the impact of the industry in the eyes of the traditional Hong Kong stock Tan also no longer exist.　　Huafugalo Securities senior Manager Ka once had such statistics, in the past 10 years, in May, 7 (month) fell 3, the average index fell by 1.47%, can be said to be the traditional Tan of Hong Kong stocks. "It was expected that the index had risen continuously in the previous 2 months and that there was a greater chance of a rebound in May." But the May trend was ' really scary ', with an increase of close to 20%, and the failure of the stock market proverbs to be seen.　　"Ka said.　　And if, since the beginning of March, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has pulled up from around 13000多 to nearly 19,000 highs, up more than 44.4%, over the same period, more than a decade ago, in just three months.　　Where does "capital city" go?　　However, after the carnival, the "capital city" from hot money will go? For now, successive increases have pushed up valuations for the whole of Hong Kong stocks. According to the director of Jin Li Fung Securities Research Department, HuangGermany's calculations, Hong Kong stock earnings multiples of 15.34 times times, state-owned enterprises shares of 17.03 times times.　　Huang that although the P/E ratio is well below the 24.26 times-fold peak of the 2007 bull market, it is at the middle of the history of Hong Kong equities, but it is clearly not cheap. UBS's recent report points out that valuations are already high and at the top of the market are not at the peak of the bull period, but the underlying factors are still not enough to reach the bull stage. Currently, Hong Kong is not the best time for long-term investors to buy and hold.　　After 19,000 points, the index may be back to 15~20% in the third quarter, to 15000~16000 point level. Jing Ulrich believes that the long-term growth of China's economy has undoubtedly become a shared view of international investors, and developed countries have maintained a strong interest in the Chinese market. But in terms of short-term investment strategies, high valuations are likely to hamper further inflows of overseas investment. However, given the prospect of China's economy and the trauma of the financial tsunami to the developed world, even the return of hot money will be a relatively slow process.　　In addition, the direction of capital will also be affected by the strength of the dollar, if the weakness of the dollar continues, international funds may remain nostalgic for emerging markets, and once the dollar has strengthened, the return of dollar capital will become inevitable. According to the latest public data, the current trend of "hot money" has not slowed down. The latest figures released yesterday by EPFR, a 220 billion dollar offshore Asia fund, show that hot money has been flowing into the mainland and Hong Kong funds in the past 5 trading days, with an increase of 1 time times to nearly 400 million US dollars (about HK $3.1 billion).　　The Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has again been stronger this week, reflecting the continued flow of hot money into Hong Kong. In this respect, Huang said that this is "the modus operandi of the big alligator". He believes that the current hot money is not back, is the foreign institutions in June to settle in half a year by repeatedly doing plate, steady plate to harvest the results of the previous.　　He predicted that, because the stock market of the large blue chips will be in 7 August, the half annual report, then "the retreat of hot money" will see the real chapter. Related reports: The resurgence of international hot money