20 Strength brokers this week's investment strategy selection

New Balance to be built in box the factors that affect the market of ⊙ national Yuan Securities are not clear about the sustainability of the economic rebound. Short-term "V"-type reversal should be no doubt, but more and more voices are worried about the long-term recovery of the economy, the provision of funds, on the one hand, the new funds are still continuing, this point, the new fund issued and the number of open accounts and open positions are not difficult to see. On the other hand, the position of the old Fund is generally not low, further increase in strength, and in the interest rate cut is not strong enough to increase the price of the bond market also shows that some hedge funds do not rule out from the stock market began to withdraw.　　In addition, the SFC issued a new pricing mechanism for the guidance of the IPO, the pace of more and more close to the market funds are withdrawn worries will be reproduced, so the provision of funds to the neutral side of the view appropriate. The factors that have affected the stock index this week will come mainly from the IPO restart forecast brought about by the introduction of the pricing mechanism for new offerings. For the market, even if the IPO market itself has become weaker, the IPO is only the last straw in the market adjustment. Given that there are only three trading days this week, the index will have a relatively limited short-term decline. and the Fund in the field to the IPO knowledge is different, pay attention to 2,530 points and 2,480 points of support.　　However, for a longer period of time the market has further downward adjustment requirements, suggesting investors timing to lighten. Market fluctuation to pay more attention to defensive ⊙ CICC IPO restart imminent, the current market is more short-term pressure than long-term positive, price shocks will intensify, pay attention to the improvement of the macro-economic situation, the industry's configuration to focus on defensive. In the long run, the reform of the IPO system is a fundamental and institutional reform of our capital market, the IPO restart is also conducive to the recovery of market financing function, the introduction of new blood, for the long-term development of the market is beneficial, and will not change the long-term trend of the stock market. But based on the uncertainty of macroeconomic recovery and the pressure of valuation, the recent a-share market itself is weak, IPO restart will undoubtedly increase market supply. We note that a total of 33 proposed listed companies in 2008 have passed the CSRC audit waiting for listing, the proposed issuance of equity amounted to 14.4 billion shares, plans to raise capital of 72.2 billion yuan. Further consider the gem, may be to be financed by the scale of more than 100 billion yuan. From the point of view of short-term capital supply, institutional investors such as funds are still at a higher level, free cash is not abundant.　　We think that the psychological pressure on investors is greater than the actual financial pressure, the short-term fear of increasing market volatility. Short-term digestion is still optimistic ⊙ Zhongyuan securities in the short term, IPO restart bad A-share market: 1 last week in the restart of the IPO impact, the market after three consecutive trading days fell. It can be seen that the market for the choice at this point to revive the recovery of stock market financing function remains divided. 2 The first-level market resumption of distribution will have a diversion effect on the level two market funds. IPO restart will undoubtedly bring pressure on the market, will not be interpreted by investors as a positive. 3 The draft is not too much new ideas. AlthoughThe organization's financial advantages have been abolished, giving retail investors more opportunities, but not exceeding market expectations. In the medium term, we still maintain a relatively optimistic share market: 1 from the previous IPO restart experience, the vast majority of the stock market is not changed upward trend. Even if a large range of short-term adjustments, but in the first stock before and after the market may think bad has been out of Jing 2) current market large blue chips such as banks and other plate valuation more reasonable, can effectively block the market downward space, and maintain the relative stability of the markets.　　3 We believe that because of the complexity of the current situation, management will control the pace and size of the IPO, and take the appropriate way to inject liquidity to hedge. This week's focus on benefiting from the IPO restart Plate: 1 Shares of listed companies that are about to make an IPO.　　2 Securities Brokerage plate. May further downward seek support ⊙ Northeast Securities this week the market has seen a new change: One is the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan's latest stance on credit policy, and the second is the SFC's latest issue of "new issues" draft. The remarks by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, "monetary policy will be fine-tuned", have raised concerns about a tightening of monetary and credit policy, with credit growth likely to fall below market expectations in the coming months, and expectations of lower interest rates may be dashed; the impact of IPO restart on the market will be in two stages. From the reform of the distribution system to the first batch of new shares, we think that the market will face some adjustment pressure during this stage. The market will enter a second phase when the IPO continues to be issued, and we believe that the market is expected to re-enter the upward channel.　　The first reason is a steady growth of the market to ensure the normal play of the financing function, followed by the issuance system reform after the IPO pricing mechanism more market-oriented, more conducive to the participation of small and medium-sized investors, to further attract savings funds into the capital market. This week the market was likely to look further down on the basis of last week's surge, with short-term support at around 2,500 points. If the May macro data did not exceed expectations, the median support was around 2,300 points.　　We believe that the current stage should adopt a defensive strategy, this week we focus on: ICBC, PetroChina, Citic Securities, China Railway, China Southern car, aerospace technology, to create international. The phased adjustment trend basically establishes ⊙ Galaxy Securities in the economic recovery strength is lower than expected, the liquidity is weakened and the economic stimulus policy utility decline and so on three big impetus has weakened the background, the recent market has shown the obvious rising weakness characteristic. In Friday, the SFC announced the "guidance on further reform and improvement of the IPO system" (draft), indicating that the IPO restart has been ready, and its process has clearly exceeded market expectations.　　IPO restart may announce this round rally basically ended, the market stage adjusts the trend to basically establish. From our monitoring data, due to the effect of reducing money, shareholders margin 6 consecutive days outflow, the market funds face tightened. Recently, the fund issued significantly faster, although to a certain extent can supplement the market funds, but relative to the shareholders margin and fund stock assets,If the withdrawal of funds is more resolute, the fund issue will not completely offset the outflow of funds. Under the background of the risk is significantly larger than the income, the basic investment strategy is defense.　　The direction of structural adjustment is the stock with good development trend, low valuation and rapid profit improvement. Liquidity release has entered the transition period ⊙ the recent policy of China Merchants Securities has undergone a delicate shift, mainly because the economic rebound is expected to increase.　　"Credit fine-tuning", "management of fixed assets loans for the draft", the Ministry of Housing and Construction officials said no more incentive policy, the CSRC on the reform of the new issue of public consultation. Despite the cooling of policy, policy changes are based on economic fundamentals, reflecting a growing trend of economic rebound; reasonable financing increases are not a turning point in stock market operations. From the recent two IPO restart, the market adjustment is around 9%, but does not change the original decline and upward trend.　　Fundamentals and liquidity trends remain fundamental determinants of medium-term market performance. Fundamentals: The diffusion Effect of real estate vehicles and other leading industries will continue. We believe that real interest rates will peak in the next few months, that the real estate recovery is likely to be sustainable, and that it will continue to help industries such as steel, building materials and coal to resume through the industrial diffusion effect; liquidity: A transition period between two phases. There will be two stages of liquidity release: The first phase relies on credit growth, and the second phase is followed by a decline in deposit growth after the CPI is regularized.　　We believe that the transition period between the two phases of liquidity release is now in place, and the market is likely to adjust in the transition process. In the medium term we remain strategically optimistic about the market, industry configuration, we propose to hold the real estate car, finance, coal-colored, etc., ambush steel.　　In the company recommended by industry researcher this week, we propose to pay attention to Panjiang shares, Fook Yiu Glass, gold molybdenum shares, South China Sea development and so on. Bottom up to digest a hold-up chip [Page]⊙ Securities technology, the upward trend in the middle of the stock index has not changed, the current index on 20th, the average is well supported. We expect a certain inertia to fall at the beginning of the week, the index will test the 30th EMA, the market, a total of three companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock prices below the latest per share of net assets; On the fundamentals, this week, the number of non-tradable numbers is 12, 24 less than last week, the lifting of shares than last week reduced by nearly 15 billion shares;　　The remaining time in the second quarter will become the transformation stage of the overseas stock market from the shock to the bottom of the breakthrough. According to the above analysis, we continue to carefully look at more than two quarters of the A-share market, the rest of the future may still continue upward.　　We continue to maintain the revised two-quarter target: 2850-2950 points, medium-term support level of 60 daily average, Shanghai 2,400, Shen Chengzhi 9,100 points. This week, the market continues to collate requirements, will present a rebound pattern to further digest the 2566-2952-point interval of the hold-up chips, prev close fluctuation range of 2550-2700 points.　　This week the market hot spot for the new energy, the concept of venture stocks. Inertial dip ProcessCentral center of gravity shift ⊙ Shanghai Securities at present, the lack of demand to restore the expected simple policy stimulus effect is weakening, the proposal later will focus on whether the policy stimulus to the relevant industries to bring real demand recovery. The CBRC promulgated the interim measures for the management of fixed assets loans, requiring lenders to implement the whole process of loan management. The implementation of the approach confirms what we said earlier that the structural optimization effect of late-stage credit policy will be greater than the scale expansion effect, while the "method" can promote the loan to support the real economic growth, and it will have an impact on the market through the psychological level of investment and the actual fund layer.　　While a loose monetary environment will not change, the "tightening effect" of new liquidity will have a negative impact on the market in the short term. The short and medium term factors that make a significant restriction on the market are the anticipation of the IPO and the cautious of the economic recovery.　　In terms of the impact of short-term IPOs, the market has been expected to do so this week, so the likelihood of a sharp decline in the stock market is small, but will be shown as the downward shift of the center of gravity and the weak shocks of inertia.　　We think that the current initiative defense should become the core investment strategy, this week industry configuration can focus on auto parts, power equipment industry, subject investment focus on new energy sector. More likely to adjust the current policy focus of Shanxi securities is mainly focused on two aspects: industry policy and regional policy. The industry policy mainly takes the top ten industry revitalization plan as the main, the regional policy includes Shanghai Two center construction, Fujian Strait West Bank Economic Zone, Beibu Gulf, Tianjin Binhai New area, Chengdu City Integrated Urban and rural comprehensive supporting service pilot zone, revitalize northeast old industrial base and so on. In advance, the main central government documents, the current local government supporting documents have been launched. Because of the different characteristics of regional economy, the companies involved in various industries, the targeted choice to meet the expected listed companies can get beyond the index of income.　　In the process of industrial transformation, successful guidance and cultivation of new industrial development, to create the future economic growth of the engine power of new energy, major equipment manufacturing, nuclear high-based, bio-industry, etc. as the sunrise industries, related companies in the future performance on the rise, investors in the future of asset allocation can be focused. The news that the IPO will be first opened next month has a certain impact on the market, and we believe that the short-term market is likely to continue to adjust.　　Strategy to maintain a relatively cautious attitude, the short-term adjustment of the larger weight stocks, early gains smaller units can be given due attention. The adjustment of the probability of insufficient policy incentives big ⊙ in the weight index unit last week, led by the stock index of Shanghai stock market close to 2,700 points, but due to the overall value of the pressure is increasingly serious and financial side began to follow up, the empty side to break through, the second half of the stock index significantly down. Last week's handicap feature is that plate rotation speeds up, seemingly long positive but also can not conceal the plight of capital diversion, and then the marginal effect of the road plate on policy stimulation reflects the reality of the increasingly powerless, the final market seems to maintain a high level of activity, but at the same time to create a new record, but obviously moreThe early deals appear top back signs, ultimately restricting market inertia higher. In view of the current support of the three major factors in the valuation, capital pressure, and the stimulus effect of the policy is not enough, the future market is expected to gradually expand the probability of adjustment.　　However, considering the early adjustment of the Bulls still have the ability to struggling, some varieties, especially asset injection classes are still active process, but the performance and space will be discounted. The catalyst of the intermediate adjustment has been formed ⊙ United Securities Any economic element can not be separated from the fate of diminishing marginal benefits. The effect of the same catalyst on the stock market is no exception. Although the recovery is expected to remain strong, the IPO is the first change in policy expectations, so we expect a short-term psychological impact on the stock market.　　Although the upward trend has not changed, but the speed of new stock issuance faster than the market expectations of the market may be the catalyst for intermediate adjustment has been set up, the adjustment of the range we think may be 10%-15%. For the next three months of market, we maintain an optimistic view that the future is more than expected in the direction of the main focus on three: residential savings demand relay credit growth: Even if the subsequent increase in credit growth on the market to boost the marginal policy benefits are diminishing, but we are not pessimistic; the real effect of infrastructure and real estate to become a vane Overseas economy and China's export growth rate from the expected point of view is neutral, it is difficult to greatly exceed the expectations of the good or bad. The real effect of government investment on demand and profits, as well as the fact that property is still expected to improve at least three quarters in the coming years, is more likely to shift to inflation than stagflation. The essence of stagflation is the supply shock, if there is no supply shock, there is no steep supply curve, and demand promotion can only make the market slowly rise. In addition, liquidity increases the volatility of the real economic cycle, but it is difficult to change the direction of the economic cycle.　　From this point of view, the more likely inflationary expectations are to shift to inflation rather than stagflation. The process of accelerating the correction of optimistic expectations ⊙ the CIC's IPO soliciting comments may accelerate the ongoing correction of the market's expectations of overly optimistic policy. Although the market for new issues early expectations, and the reform of the new shares involved in the measures, such as the implementation of the IPO pricing market reform and to the interests of small and medium-sized investors, and so on the long-term healthy development of the market constitutes a positive, but in the short run,　　It is possible to make a certain psychological pressure on the short-term stock index operation, which is mainly manifested in the negative interpretation of the policy and the cautious anticipation on the relationship between supply and demand of the two-tier market. For the stock index callback range, we think that there are two reasons: first, we believe that after years of accumulation of regulatory experience, management will reasonably grasp the pace of the IPO, and timely communication with investors IPO information, the market in the first round of panic after the fall will gradually return to rationality; Secondly, we think that the The draft of the IPO solicit opinions is only a return to the effect that the market is too optimistic to the policy side to the rational expectation, and itsDoes not constitute a major negative, the future market is more likely to be structured to transform the interpretation of the way.　　We temporarily maintain the updated two quarter index of the Shanghai Composite in the 2,300 to 2,900 point of the shock judgment. Short-term pressure medium-term trend not to change ⊙ Everbright Securities IPO system reform issued in Friday, the SFC has made clear that after the request for comments will be arranged for new issues, so the IPO restart time before the market expected before the gem, which will bring short-term adjustment pressure on the market. Although the IPO system has been partially reformed, the net issue is still being allocated according to the amount of capital, so there is no fundamental change in the pressure on the financing of the IPO.　　Small and medium investors may benefit from online distribution, but the benefits are limited by the fact that there is no change in the proportion of online networks. Macro fundamentals and liquidity are the fundamental factors in determining the market's medium-term trend, so we believe that IPO restart will not change the market in the medium term to a good trend.　　As the government adjusts the capital ratio of commercial real estate projects to bring a rapid rise in the real estate sector, the recent Housing Ministry officials clearly do not appear in the stimulus policy, which may lead to the property sector adjustment;　　Difficult to enter the valuation bubble stage [page]⊙ Great Wall Securities in the Securities and Futures Commission "IPO reform draft" Psychological impact, economic v-shaped recovery can continue the controversy against the background, we judge short-term index is difficult to enter the valuation bubble stage, 2,700 points with staged top characteristics. "IPO Reform soliciting opinions draft" influence after a-share trend: the short-term psychological impact effect is obvious, will trigger the stock index occasion to fall the adjustment, expects the market to form the downward support near 2,450 points, then presents the persistent bottom concussion characteristic; the decline of the A-share development direction depends on the new issue rhythm and the May macro-data factors. MAY macro data related to the driving force of the economic V-shaped recovery to the right, which has a key impact on the stock market in the June. If the PMI continues to be good, power generation and other early indicators of poor signs of good, A shares will return to the rally hit 2,700 points. If the power generation continues to expand the chain, PMI is weak, we have pessimistic judgment on future.　　That the stock index adjustment time, space will be extended, a a-share a new turnaround will appear in "management launched a more than expected economic stimulus policy" after. Release of valuation pressure in short-term volatility ⊙ China Gold Securities IPO Restart Absolute impact is limited and relatively controllable, short-term market expectations have a certain impact.　　In the short term of the IPO restart, there will be some short-term fluctuations due to changes in market policy expectations or the pressure of potential outflows. Valuation effect weakened: in the new system to the small and medium-sized investors tilt, the original huge funds chasing secondary market spreads of the behavior will be cooled, the IPO pricing will tend to be reasonable, the IPO will bring about the value of the price comparison effect would be reduced. The overall valuation level of a-share market will tend to be reasonable, and the impetus of irrational uplift will shrinkThe potential flow of funds is controllable: a simple calculation of the current clear financing needs: 1, has been but not issued by the existing 34 companies, initially expected to raise 70 billion. 2, the second half of the gem issue to reach 100, will be expected to raise 10.02 trillion. This is relative to the current market turnover of about 200 billion, the absolute capital outflow effect is relatively limited; the potential change of liquidity pattern is mainly affected by three aspects: 1, new stock issue, belong to short-term impact; 2, credit policy, is expected to maintain loose but there is tightening pressure; 3. It belongs to the spontaneous supply inhibition under the foaming. On the liquidity pattern, our overall judgment is: the future liquidity pattern will remain relatively loose overall, but the adequacy will be narrowed.　　The second half of the year is less abundant than the first half, which will make the expansion of the simple valuation multiple restrained. Awaiting valuation pressure release. We view IPOs as short-term shocks, and in the medium term we are more concerned with fundamentals and the level of valuations that are appropriate. At present, the optimistic expectations of the market relative to the fundamentals have been more advanced, we maintain the early 2,700 points of the Shanghai Composite Index is the judgment of rational valuation ceiling.　　At the same time the Shanghai Composite Index under 2,400, the valuation pressure to a certain extent released, a-share market investment attraction will gradually reflect. With shock as the main downward space limited ⊙ Guo Hai securities from the news side, it is noteworthy that after the close of Friday China Securities Regulatory Commission on the "Further reform and improve the issue of the system of new issues (draft)" Open to the community for advice. And the issuance of new shares will be arranged after the end of the consultation and the official release. This undoubtedly makes the nerves of the market tense up, in the short term to the market may constitute the psychological pressure of expansion. But our empirical research shows that an IPO that controls rhythm does not change the trend of the market. And a-share in the history of 6 times after the resumption of IPOs in one months, the Shanghai Composite Index up to 83.3% probability. So investors don't have to panic over the IPO restart.　　We expect the market will continue to be dominated by shocks this week, with limited downlink space. Operational strategies, some of the return of the funds to seek refuge may be the recent stagnation of some blue chips show strong resilience.　　In addition, some of the companies through the targeted additional injection of the reorganization of the company has been a hot pursuit, we believe that the injection of restructuring stocks will become the current or even the whole year a major hotspot, can be concerned about. Shock rebound in the vicinity of the rail to be supported ⊙ state-sheng Securities regional economy and industry revitalization policy continues to be introduced, but the intensity has not reached the extent of shock to the market. Encourage cars, home appliances "old for new" policy from the household appliances varieties and the scope of implementation and subsidies to see the current practice can be seen as tentative. In addition, including Chengdu Reform Planning and new Energy revitalization planning are in the market expectations of the policy, the impact on the market is relatively limited.　　Overall, the market confidence is still relatively stable, and investors are still more rational. The index is still running in the bounce channel after a long running time after the upper rail. Short-term market presenceThree possible: One is in the early highs of 2,580 points near the rally rebound, the second is in the rebound channel in the orbit near 2,550 points to obtain a support rebound; The first is the most powerful adjustment, but the upward space is not large, the latter two are more likely to look up the space will be greater. But these three may not be contradictory, do not rule out a small rebound after the decline of the possibility of further decline.　　We believe that in the vicinity of the middle rail to obtain a certain support probability is large, the fourth week of May, the index will appear rebound oscillation pattern, the interval point bit 2550-2700 points. Increased risk aversion. ⊙ Zhejiang Merchants Securities 22nd, China Securities Regulatory Commission on the "Further reform and improve the new issue system guidance" open to the community for comments, the market has been widely concerned about the reform of the new issue of the IPO, the suspension of more than half a year is expected to launch a new issue. The Securities and Futures Commission said it would arrange new issues after the formal release of the guidance on the IPO system on June 5.　　Unlike the general expectations of the market, the motherboard may start to restart the IPO, and then in the gem new issue in reference to the motherboard IPO system implementation. In the current a-share of the structural adjustment pressure, the motherboard restart IPO news will be pressure on market psychology, investor risk aversion will rise further. The issuance of new shares is faster than the expected restart and the decline of credit growth, which will have a negative impact on the supply and demand of market funds. In the short term, the market will enter the adjustment period, but the management may also adopt some favorable policies to hedge.　　The first stage will promote the reform of the IPO system four measures, but the market concerns the stock issue in the draft of this request is not covered. Resource Price is the rebound end sign ⊙ the transition period between the intermediate rebound and the reversal of the Changjiang securities is inevitable, the problem is only when the time comes. Our basic understanding of the trend of the world economy since 2008 is that inflation will remain relatively sensitive to economic growth during the long wave downturn, so the root cause of all economic change is inflation.　　In the verification of the expected stage, if the economic judgment is simplified, basically is the two scenarios of inflation, whether deflation or inflation, will inevitably lead to the end of the rebound. On domestic demand, whether from investment or consumption point of view, all the core points to the real estate sector. After the release of rigid demand, real estate turnover will be more related to property price fluctuations and income expectations, the second half of the year unemployment rate continued to rise and the extent of the decline in income expectations has become the fundamental need to explore.　　Therefore, under the background of unemployment rate and income expectation decline, whether demand can become the factor that supports the economic development needs to play a big question mark. If demand is weak, it is reflected in commodity prices, and if commodities continue to rise because of ample liquidity, they will largely dampen emerging rigid demand.　Therefore, the resource price becomes the important sign that we observe whether the intermediate rebound is over or not.　Accelerate the inherent adjustment should avoid risk ⊙ Minsheng Securities market in high position stagflation, there are technical requirements, there is the reason for style change.　　Although blue-chip start-up to the market for greater imagination, but in the current economic environment, the conversion risk is also very large. This week's IPO restart is expected to accelerate the market's inherent adjustment: First, the IPO restart faster than market expectations, the market is widely expected to be the main board IPO later than the gem. Now the motherboard in June or began, the market expansion pressure increased; second, the market's hope is that the style of conversion, IPO restart the blue-chip start-up more difficult. Based on the basic market supply and demand relationship, the start-up of the gem is conducive to stabilizing the main board theme hype, leading funds to the blue-chip. Now the main board IPO, blue-chip supply increased, the capital diversion effect of the transfer of funds. Once again, the fine-tuning of monetary policy can lead to local changes in liquidity, and IPOs may now increase the supply and demand of capital.　　So the short-term IPO restart is the most severe test of the market rally, although there are statistics on the history, IPO restart will not change the long-term trend, but the economic base is not strong, the market long-term upward trend has not been established. Although we can expect, if the market on the issue of new shares to overreact, do not exclude the introduction of hedging policies, but short-term or to avoid the main risk, brokerage, GEM, equity brokerage plate has a relative opportunity.