Auto parts Industry: Industry rebound valuation Low

Today's investment based on today's investment in the "online analyst" on more than 70 domestic brokerage Institute of more than 1800 analysts earnings forecast data statistics, this week's comprehensive earnings forecast (2009) to increase the range of 30 stocks in the front, the industry distribution is relatively dispersed, of which the auto parts industry has 4 companies into tinea automobile manufacturing,　　Aviation industry has 3 companies in the glare of this period we choose Auto Parts industry for comment. In the demand environment improvement and policy stimulation, the 1-4-month auto market cumulative sales of 3.8319 million vehicles, an increase of 9.43%, of which April sales reached 1.15 million, year-on-year growth of 25%, the chain growth of 4%, and then a single month of new sales, beyond market expectations, the auto industry recovery is obvious. Analysts say the industry boom will continue.　　The low rate of tenure and consumption in the two or three-line region provide a good foundation for demand, and the gradual resumption of consumer demand in the PRD and Yangtze River Delta markets has injected new impetus into the market, and policy support and stimulation have helped to boost car sales. The Great Wall Securities said in the establishment of the vehicle industry recovery period, the spare parts industry is in the upper reaches of the vehicle industry, its recovery will be less than the entire vehicle industry 2-3 months behind, so the future with the recovery of the vehicle industry, spare parts industry will be greatly improved, in addition, due to the recent increase in the car plate　　and parts of the valuation is still in the car plate discount stage, investors can pay close attention to spare parts plate investment opportunities. Joint Securities said that as the automotive industry continued to boom, the main car company performance is still more than expected, but the main parts company less than 20 times times the level of PE valuation means a higher margin of investment safety. In addition, similar to the entire vehicle company, the high business performance of parts and components companies may be more than expected, the current stock price is still not reflected.　　In the next 1 quarters, with the gradual release of corporate performance, auto parts companies have a greater chance of acquiring excess income. Taking into account the parts of the industry in the rapid growth phase of its growth and valuation center is higher than the entire vehicle plate, the Great Wall securities, said that investors continue to pay attention to the listed companies: Ningbo Huaxiang, China-Ding shares, Wanfeng Granville.　　Combined securities along the underestimated value, industry growth benefits and future growth space three clues to find the right investment target, and then recommend four parts companies: Dongan Power, bus shares, Fuk Yiu Glass, the central tripod shares. 4 of the 30 stocks that were selected this week were expected to be less than 20 times times earnings in 2009, and 16 more than 30 times times. From today's investment stocks safety diagnosis, 16 stocks of the security stars are Samsung or above level.　　In the 30 earnings forecast for this week, we chose the Guizhou Tyre (000589) and the Shen Feng (600469) to give a brief comment. ★★★★ Qian Tire (000589) Industry recovery capacity expansion of Guizhou Tire (000589) is one of the most major tire enterprises in the Midwest, the main products are All-steel Truck radial tire, steel radial tire, oblique tire, etc., its brand includes "forward", "Hercules", "manyLitong "and so on. Industry warmer, production and sales of two prosperous. China's government 4 trillion investment in the economic pulling effect this year gradually emerged, at the same time the domestic huge car ownership and sustained growth of the auto market, so that the domestic tire markets in March this year began to rebound markedly. Since March, the tire enterprises have reached full load production, sales and marketing volume increased. Although entering 7-August, the tire industry will enter the traditional off-season, but Oriental Securities believe that with the 4 trillion investment projects continue to advance, this year the tire industry is likely to appear in the off-season, and the Guizhou Tire is in the 4 trillion most heavily invested region, but also benefited from Sichuan post-disaster reconstruction,　　It is expected that the company will be able to maintain a good sales situation in the next few months. Low prices of raw materials, corporate efficiency significantly increased. In tire production, the main raw materials are natural rubber and synthetic rubber, accounting for 50% of the total cost. At the end of last year, international crude oil fell all the way, with oil prices closely related to international rubber prices also fell significantly more than 50%, which led to the current level of gross margin of the tire companies have significantly improved.　　Wanguo said although the price of natural rubber has risen since March, but still at a historical low, and with the May Thailand into the tapping period after the new gum listing pressure, the price will not be a sharp rise, is expected to 2 days gum price will be maintained in 15,000 yuan/ton, tire enterprises can still maintain a high gross margin. Capacity expansion. The company currently produces 2 million sets of All-steel radial tires, half steel meridian tires 500,000 sets, 2.5 million sets of skew tires. The company expects to achieve 100% capacity utilization this year. The company added 800,000 sets of All-steel radial Tire project, the project is expected to reach the end of 2010 and from 2011 onwards to contribute to profits.　　After the completion of the 2011 project, full steel radial tire capacity expansion to 2.8 million sets. Oriental Securities are expected to maintain the current high profitability of the Guizhou tire will be maintained for a longer period of time: first, to repair the market, by the export market and the impact of the new vehicle market is small; second, the market position is special, others difficult to seize in a short period of time to seize the market share of Guizhou tires; three, the tin gum price is difficult to rise sharply,　　The current price increase helps to reassure dealers about the adverse expectations of falling prices for the company's products. Today's investment in the online analyst shows: The company's 2009-2011 earnings forecasts for each share of 0.44, 0.52, 0.68 yuan, the corresponding dynamic earnings ratio of 20, 17 and 13 times times; There are currently 10 analyst trails, of which 2 suggest "strong buy" and 6 suggest "buy",　　2-digit "wait-and-see" rating, comprehensive rating factor of 2.00.　　Risk tip: The company's most important raw materials natural rubber and synthetic rubber price on the company's profit level, the future if the price of gum with crude oil prices will affect the company's net profit. ★ The god of the shares (600469) demand rebound days gum down the market shares (600469) is China's production of radial tire and construction machinery tire leading enterprises, with an annual output of 5 million sets of tires capacity. In the DomesticIn the tire industry, the 8% share of the Load Meridian Tire Market and the 28% share of the project skew tire market were ranked fourth and first. 08, the company achieved net profit-9,713.550,000 yuan, down 191.41%, 09 1 quarter to achieve net profit of 5.7363 million yuan, the year-on-year decline of 85.36%. The company's performance has dropped significantly: 1, the main cost of tire production of natural rubber and oil price fluctuations, reduce product gross profit margin; 2, the fourth quarter of 08 was affected by the international financial crisis, natural rubber and other raw materials prices fell sharply, tyre demand, severely affected the operating results. 3, the company operating in January-February this year with the 08 4 quarter, facing a larger downstream demand and high prices of raw materials inventory pressure.　　The tire industry is now facing a rapid reversal of these conditions, the entire industry has recovered. Company sales have been fully warmed up. Company sales since 2 March has been rapid recovery, the state's major asset investment and auto industry revitalization planning to stimulate the company's downstream heavy truck and construction machinery sales and use of demand.　　These factors lead to the company's current order is full, the whole day to meet production tasks. Along with the days of glue down, the company has completely out of the predicament. As a result of the 08 day gum prices soared, the company caused a lot of operating pressure, especially the effect of high price days gum inventory until the beginning of February 09 to fully digest, the industry is beginning to use a large number of low price glue.　　Ping An securities is expected in the future, the price will remain low price operation, the company's costs will be greatly reduced, thus out of the dilemma. Radial Tire new plant production and rubber source acquisition to increase the company's future profitability. With the improvement of construction machinery product quality, Engineering tire meridian will be the future trend, the company's new plant 150,000 sets of engineering Meridian Tire production line will be completed in the year to put into production. The company 08 Meridian Tire Sales of only 7-8 thousands, sales revenue of about 1.3 billion yuan, so the new project Meridian Tire production line will be pulled into production 2009 and 2010 sales performance.　　In addition, the company is improving the industrial chain, the use of industrial procurement control glue source, the company's annual use of 120,000 tons of gum, the future is expected to have more than 40,000 tons of gum source, the effective use of rubber sources will reduce the impact of cost volatility on the company's profitability. East China Sea Securities said the company will face a better future in 09. Company's heavy truck tires are mainly equipped with heavy-duty trucks, heavy steam, Auman, Shaanxi Steam and the use of the company's tires. Engineering tires in the HA, dragon workers all with the company tires, LiuGong most of the company with tires. As a result of the national major project investment will lead to the construction machinery and heavy card utilization rate of a sharp increase, which will increase the replacement of tire demand.　　After the six-year heavy card sales will increase the demand for matching tires, the company will usher in a better development opportunity in 09. Today investment "online analyst" shows: the company 2009-2011 integrated earnings forecasts for each share of 0.45, 0.65, 0.66 yuan, the corresponding dynamic P/E is 24, 17 and 16 times times respectively; There are currently 9 analyst trails, of which 2 suggest "strong buy" and 3-bit build"Buy", 4 to give "wait-and-see" rating, a comprehensive rating factor of 2.22.　　Risk factors: The tire industry increased competition, raw material price fluctuations and product price adjustments exceeded expectations.　　NOTE: 1 The profit forecast data of the above table are provided after finishing processing of more than 1800 analysts ' earnings forecast data of more than 70 domestic brokerage institutes in China today. 2) Synthesis 08EPSe: reflects the overall expectation of the research institution on earnings per share in 2008, that is, the average of all analysts ' earnings forecasts for 2008 per share of the stock in the current (within 90 days).　　The value will change as the analyst continues to follow the study, representing, to a certain extent, the average expectation of the market and its changes, but does not represent the company's actual profit level for 2008. 3 change Amplitude: The formula is: (Current comprehensive forecast value-last comprehensive forecast value)/last comprehensive forecast value. The larger the number, the greater the current analyst's adjustment to the stock's earnings forecasts for 2008; Conversely, the adjustment of the 4-day investment stock safety diagnosis: Today's investment alone stock comprehensive evaluation model. It carries on the comprehensive appraisal to the stock fundamentals, the technical aspect, the organization approval degree three aspects, simultaneously has the other important financial index as well as the present investment summary domestic and foreign more than 1800 analyst research results as the revision target, finally forms a set of scientific and rational stock diagnosis system. Safety diagnosis in the star-style performance, divided into one star, two stars, Samsung, four stars, five star total of five standards. Star high, indicating that the overall security of the stock is high, the potential risk is low, conversely, the overall security is poor, at least in one respect, there may be risk factors, stock price uncertainty is greater. Among them: fundamental security Diagnosis: scoring interval 1-100 points. High score, indicating the growth rate, profitability and other indicators good, fundamental risk is low; technical surface safety diagnosis: scoring interval 1-100 points. High score, the pure technical analysis of the indicators are good, the stock price performance is strong, technical side of the risk is low; institutional identity safety diagnosis: scoring interval of 1-100 points.　　High scores indicate that market research institutions and investment institutions have a high degree of recognition of related stocks, and the risk of market supply and demand is lower. Description: 1.　　The above data for today's investment in Financial Information Co., Ltd. more than 70 domestic brokerage institute more than 1800 analyst earnings forecasts and investment rating data for the collation provided.　　2. Rating coefficient: 1.00~1.09 strong buy, 1.10~2.09 buy, 2.10~3.09 wait and see, 3.10~4.09 moderate reduction, 4.10~5.00 sell. 3 07EPS: After the value plus ' e ' to indicate the forecast value, does not add the actual announcement value buy Note: 1.　　The above data for today's investment in Financial Information Co., Ltd. more than 70 domestic brokerage institute more than 1800 analyst earnings forecasts and investment rating data for the collation provided. 2.　　Rating coefficient: 1.00~1.09 strong buy, 1.10~2.09 buy, 2.10~3.09 wait and see, 3.10~4.09 moderate reduction, 4.10~5.00 sell. 3 07EPS: Value Plus ' e ' to indicate the predicted value, without adding the actual advertised values