EMS into the Express war

October 23 Afternoon, Taobao sellers, photo frame boss Zhang made a decision to quit this year's "Double 11" war, he thought last year, "Blowout type" network sales led to the explosion of the courier industry, to bring consumers a poor consumer experience, this year, "11 11" will not necessarily sell again hot, And the odd high inventory or will crush a group of electric dealers.

November 11, 2011, the Alibaba launched by the "Singles Day" net sales discount activities, and finally triggered a network of crazy shopping, Taobao, day Cat day sales reached 5.2 billion yuan. The blockbuster sales figures are attracting tens of thousands of online sellers eager to replicate this year's brilliance.

As early as a few months ago, many Taobao cat sellers began to prepare for procurement, increase inventory, shops have entered the "Financing army." By the middle of October, Taobao, cat sellers to Ali Finance launched the number of financing movements increased by 40%.

"This year's double 11 is obviously not hot last year, only the net trader in the unilateral hype." "Zhejiang Yuhang e-Commerce Association consultants and the Code of Total Investment Management Co., Ltd. CEO Guo Lin Arsenic to the reporter, said this year," Double 11 "may not be able to achieve last year's sales performance.

Nevertheless, occupy the express 60% market share of the net to buy Express, but by some express company unprecedented attention. Home urgent send 50% to meet this net selling feast, and the price has been "high" state-owned enterprise EMS also began to adjust prices, to buy a piece of the market from the net ...

"Double 11" cooling?

This is the fourth year of "11 11" Singles Day. The founder of this network-selling feast seems to be the biggest winner so far.

October 23, Alibaba Group's cat public relations director Gieggio to reporters for three consecutive years, "11 11" Day sales data show: 2009, Taobao sales 100 million; 2010, Taobao and Taobao mall sales 936 million, 2011, Taobao and cat sales performance 5.2 billion, of which the cat 3.36 billion, more than 20 million single.

Gieggio introduced, 2010 "Double 11" that day of snow, and compared to the 2009 9 times Times the volume of business blowout, a lot of express company business appeared "burst Warehouse", the Express mail only a few weeks after the final shipment, some express pressure for several months, this is the worst year express delivery.

"2011 Express delivery is much better than 2010. Gieggio said, although compared with 2010, the day's sales turned 5 times times, but because the courier company is prepared, although there is a "burst warehouse" but the overall consumer experience is good.

But Zhang obviously has a different view. 2007, Zhang started from scratch, began to sell on Taobao box, from a year of sales tens of thousands of yuan, rapid growth to 2011 40 million. Zhang to reporters, although he is relying on Taobao rich, but not fully agree with Taobao launched this crazy online shopping activities.

"Although the sales volume is big, but the experience to the consumer is too bad." Zhang said that in 2011 some of the Courier burst warehouse, the goods only a few weeks before the consumer, which dampened the consumer's online shopping experience.

In the Guo Lin of arsenic, this year's "double 11" only the net Trader "hot". 2011 Taobao in order to cultivate consumer experience of online shopping, two or three months before the beginning of advertising through a variety of channels, advertising costs are expected to exceed 100 million yuan, and this year almost no advertising.

"In the final analysis, ' Double 11 ' is a freak. "All consumers are frantically buying so-called discounted goods, which is not a healthy mode of consumption, and government authorities do not subscribe to the business model," Guo Lin said. And in this year's hot "8 15" electric business war, gradually to consumers exposed the nature of the price of electricity, that is, the first adjustment of online commodity prices, and then discounted to achieve the so-called "promotion", in fact, the price has not changed, such a promotion for consumers is a deception. But the gradual rational consumer is not necessarily buying.

"If this year's ' Double 11 ' fades, or will die a group of excessive stock of the net." "Guo Lin Arsenic said.

But Gieggio that this year's sales will not be less than last year, but can not predict this year Taobao, Cat Day sales.

Home emergency delivery, EMS lower prices into the Bureau

For the Express company, the upcoming "Double 11" is the pressure is a huge business opportunities. In such a background, home emergency delivery, EMS uncharacteristically began to reduce prices, to hunt for "four to one" network to buy market share.

According to the China Express Association, "2011~2012 China Express Development Report", 2012 China Express business volume will reach 4.8 billion, the income is expected for the first time more than 100 billion yuan, of which the net purchase Express annual growth rate of 80%.

And China Express Logistics Consulting Network statistics show that the first half of 2012, the National Express business income of 48.9 billion yuan, express volume of 2.65 billion pieces, of which, the net purchase of express volume accounted for the total volume of about 60%, net purchase express revenue accounted for the express business income of 38%.

Xu, chief advisor to China Express Advisory Network, said in the past five years, "four-pass One Tatsu" (Shentong, Yuantong, Qualcomm, Huitong, Rhyme Tatsu) Five companies to grasp the development opportunities of the era of online shopping, mainly to undertake Taobao to buy express business, and quickly bigger and stronger; among them, Shen Tong Express volume of 4 million pieces/day, Yuantong Express Volume 3 million/day, medium pass 2 million pieces/day, rhyme up to 2 million pieces/day, Huitong 600,000/day.

and Yuantong an executive to reporters, the current network purchase Express business accounted for the total proportion of its business: Yuantong accounted for 60%~70%, Shen Tong accounted for 70%~80%, Shun Fung accounted for 10%. And the above Yuantong executives frankly: "The ' four to one up ' growth, and in recent years the development of online shopping is closely related. ”

and the direct mode of the house rush to send, in the past five years missed the network courier brought the feast. Home delivery business focused on business-to-business logistics distribution, its express business accounted for a small proportion.

According to reports, the recent housing rush to Beijing announced that the price reduction of about 50%. And the house rushed to Beijing, Fuzhou district, etc. has begun to reduce prices, will be comprehensive and "four to one Tatsu" competition for the internet market, and promised to be less than "four-pass One" express price.

"We did participate in the ' double 11 ' online shopping Express competition for the first time this year. "Home anxious to send vice President Lu Guorong to this reporter said, house urgent send price reduction 50% of the argument is not very accurate. In the past few years, the house anxious to send in the internet to do not good enough, now can not lose this opportunity. Each region for the "double 11" to take the discount strategy is not the same, but this reflects the rush to send for online shopping express determination and strength.

And this May, EMS staff also disclosed to reporters that EMS will be more close to the market, take a variety of means to participate in market competition, the completion of the IPO, will introduce a series of measures.

In fact, in Guangdong, Fujian and other regions, EMS began quietly price adjustment, lifting 500g and within the original has been 20 yuan, from the end of September began to change the first 12 yuan.

This year, EMS, home urgent to send the first large-scale participation in Taobao, the cat's ' double 11 ' online shopping Express collaboration. Gieggio to this newspaper reporter confirms.

"Bust" nightmare cycle?

In the face of EMS, home urgent delivery of the price reduction strategy, shun Fung is more calm.

Shun Fung and "four to one," a number of managers reply to this reporter's statement almost unanimously, that is not in the "double 11" period to adjust the price of express.

Shun Fung Internal management to the reporter bluntly, the first half of this year from April to July are online shopping off-season, and the entire second half of the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, Christmas, Spring Festival and "Double 11", the net purchase has a substantial upgrade, Shun Fung will be appropriate hardware such as site construction, will increase staffing; The period will be with Taobao Cat Logistics Department actively communicate with each other, according to the network to deploy human resources, "the company has no express discount promotional information."

"' Double 11 ' is a freak, this is very irrational consumption, demand express not to burst Cang too difficult." "And Domestic express a senior executive to this newspaper, this is like" Spring Festival ", only in the" Double 11 "day, sales will be doubled, if the courier company in accordance with the" double 11 "with the corresponding hardware and software personnel vehicles, then will cause a lot of waste of resources," Why not divert it? Why not advocate healthy online shopping? ”

and Yuantong an executive to the reporter introduced to this newspaper, 2011, its North China Transit Center daily transport capacity of 300,000 pieces, and "Double 11" on the day of the transfer increased by 50%, to 450,000; in 2012, North China Transshipment Center normal transshipment volume of 350,000 pieces/day, the peak has reached 450,000/day.

"The company is preparing for this year's ' Double 11 ' by express 60%. "The flexible executives said that, for example, the hardware site expansion 60%, personnel vehicles increased by 60%."

In his view, this year or another express "burst warehouse" phenomenon, Yuantong will be in the terminal to undertake express list to control the "burst" risk, the company will be limited to undertake the old customer list, the second consideration of new customers; If the express explosion, the company will be with Taobao cat consultation, after the consumer orders, postpone the receipt of a single time, will receive a single time to continue to a week, spread the pressure, "trust Taobao consumers should understand the express company."

"' four-through-one ' does not necessarily control franchisee's impulse. "Xu bluntly, in fact, in the past few years, in the case of a sharp increase in costs," four to one Tatsu "has not increased prices, there is no price reduction. But "four Tong one" to "take" the headquarters Operation franchisee, franchisee operating Customer "mode, which led to the mere pursuit of the number of franchisees, in the" double 11 "period to undertake a large number of lists, resulting in a burst warehouse, and then the franchisee after the use of a week or even one months slowly distribution transport.

"If this year's ' Double 11 ' continues as crazy as last year's shopping spree, the bust will also be vicious. Xu said, "Double 11" This unhealthy mode of online shopping, destined to bring to the express company huge pressure; According to the Day Express volume with hardware and software facilities, the Express company is indeed a resource allocation waste.

Xu said that in Europe and the United States Christmas, there will be the phenomenon of online shopping, but not the Chinese "Singles Day" one day, but the online shopping time is elongated. To ensure quality, FedEx and other companies will temporarily recruit retired staff to cope with the increased volume of business.

And Gieggio said that this year, Taobao, Cat and nine Big Express company cooperation, will use Taobao logistics platform, and express companies, network operators to achieve information sharing, so as to realize courier streaming, solve the "burst warehouse" problem.

(requested by the respondent, Zhang is a pseudonym)