Siege 3,000-point fund camp more space big differentiation optimism and worry coexist

On June 24, the Shanghai Composite Index was dogged by a 1.02% per cent gain at 2922.3, and the Chinese stock market is a short distance from 3,000 points.　　Although the 3,000-point recovery does not really have any real value, but this integer pass, for the Chinese stock market, which has rebounded from the 1664-point undervaluation, the successful occupation of 3,000 points is both an important milestone in this rally and a symbol and symbol of the stock market from crisis to recovery to full prosperity.　　However, as the stock index is approaching 3,000 points, especially the giddy leader of the blue-chip market has become the core power of the continued rally, investors are increasingly divided over a jubilant stock market. Earlier this month, the index of joint securities developed to monitor market dynamic security began to change markedly, with the style Wheel index (USRI) pointing to large caps, the risk appetite (URPI) rose to a high, and the Volatility Index (UTI) was abruptly uplifted, and the United Securities said　　The excessive upsurge of investor sentiment may imply the overdraft of market energy and the increase of market risk.　　The latest tracking study of the investment strategy of the Joint Securities Fund found that some of the funds began to turn to defence as the index approached 3,000 points.　　In the 3,000-point index siege sensitive moment, the fund big guy between great quantities, big open Dahe game drama or will reach climax. The worries of the empty camp "now that the market has a vague picture of the macro-economy, a distance between ' bottoming ' and ' recovery '," recovery "and" high growth "are worlds apart, and many people seem to have put ' eight ' back for 2007 years. We were careful to avoid the worst of the financial crisis, but probably before the next boom.　　"This is the Chinese treasure Societe Generale fund for the current rise in the stock market trend of cautious view, but also most of the market cautious view of the fund psychological portrayal of the typical representative." With China's macroeconomic data rebounding for several months, as well as a few recent US economic data, more and more financial people are starting to cheer on the bottom of the economic recovery, Warburg said.　　It is Kate that global equities, especially in China and Hong Kong, have jumped from unilateral declines at the end of last year to almost unilateral gains. In the face of a once-in-a-century economic crisis and financial crisis, many people now feel the aftermath of the disaster, overjoyed. But I want to remind you that the time is not yet to celebrate, like adventure Travel, through the most sinister lot, does not mean that you can sit back and relax, the most prone to the situation is often in those secondary Hing.　　In fact, the reason is simple, people tend to spend the most dangerous paragraph after the relaxation of vigilance, resulting in the sewer capsized. Said to return to the current market, the stock market and the macro-economy are quite relevant. It cannot be denied that the current market rally is more or less a reflection of the macroeconomic stability after the rapid decline of the three or four quarter last year, or "bottoming out", but the key is that there is a substantial difference between "bottoming out" and "recovery".　　and "recovery" and "high growth" is a different difference. andWarburg Societe Generale also has a cautious view of the market and Bo-time fund, Bo-time fund that whether it is real estate, commodities, or stock market short-term cattle, are monetary policy relaxation, liquidity-driven results. The economic fundamentals are still at the bottom, and the real recovery will be slower than expected; China's stock market, in the long run of cattle, has touched the ceiling on short-term valuations. China's stock market in the past 15 years, the law shows that the history of PE once four break through 40 times times, two times under 20 times times, but either breakthrough or fall through, will soon come back. Valuations on the stock market are now 23 times times the 2009-year performance measure, the relative bottom since 2005.　　But in the short term valuations are close to the track, and while there is room, it is a risky space.　　The Franklin fund argues that there is an undeniable liquidity drive and a slowdown in valuation fixes in the short-term market, and that there is a risk that the market will inevitably be released once the expected degree of economic recovery reflected in the stock price is difficult to reach. Moreover, the cautious view of the markets from other funds is that strong inflationary expectations, like last year's 10-year agricultural bull market, are a proposition that cannot be falsified, and that the market has reflected the expectations of a higher economic recovery from valuation levels. Next, the market will enter the verification phase of the economic recovery, the 2009 report is crucial.　　As consumption in the US has been adjusted, and China's industrial capacity is still growing, the risk of another downturn remains.　　The bullish market for bullish institutions has short and long, and in the short sight of a cup with half a cup of water, the open-minded bulls are very relieved to have half a glass of water in their hands. Contrary to the cautious fund, the Invesco Great Wall Fund is an active optimist, which believes that, in terms of data from commercial banks, credit has been in excess of 5 trillion this year, is expected to reach 8 trillion a year, abundant capital and deflation will gradually disappear, it is widely believed that as the economic recovery,　　CPI data will turn positive in the second half of the year, and the process of deflation to inflation is also the Golden age for investing in equities. Peng Wah Fund also optimistic about the market trend, that the domestic economic growth over expectations, the relevant policies have been introduced, the market liquidity is abundant, reasonable valuation of the stock market and other factors for a-share markets by the bear turned cattle laid a solid foundation. This round of economic growth is largely dependent on investment in fixed assets, which is the result of central and local investment and credit distribution, which has played a decisive role. Liquidity is the most direct determinant of the stock market, and the current rally is based on ample liquidity and anticipation of a domestic macroeconomic recovery. China has not suffered too much from the financial crisis, and it has the lowest risk in the latest assessment of global national risk indices for UBS. Moreover, through the accumulation of the past decades, the domestic financial system and the real economy's ability to resist risk has been greatly improved. The promotion of policies, coupled with the recovery of the real economy, has boosted the market's investment confidence and further driven the market's rise. The fund has placed high hopes on the "micro-level corporate profitability recovery Surprise" in the second half of the year, and firmly believes that although recovery is a gradual process, the process has accelerated in the near future. The highlights of the first half of the economy is mainly in the improvement of macro data, while the second half of the focus on micro-level corporate profitability recovery in the surprise, 2009 years of the real economy will show a significant improvement. There is also an acceleration of inflationary expectations: on the one hand, the recent rebound in global market economies and the US PMI has rebounded for several consecutive months, while some leading indicators of inflation have surged; on the other hand, extremely loose monetary policy will make the currency relative to the physical devaluation Meanwhile, the rise in real estate prices will further strengthen inflation expectations.　　Economic indicators have shown encouraging signs in many ways: The recent release of macro-data has consistently exceeded expectations, with data on credit, investment, consumption and industrial values showing a pick-up in the recovery process, which also supports the recent start of factor market prices, the way in which monetization has opened up the economic recovery, and the recovery in corporate profitability is accelerating. and rich-country funds are more optimistic that the fundamentals of Chinese equities will be getting better, and there are reasons to be more optimistic about China's economy than before. The more optimistic logic is that the initial warming of the auto market was also attributed to tax subsidies for car purchases, but the heat of auto consumption is clearly inherently sustainable.　　The industrial economy has achieved a hard landing, and the probability of a gradual improvement in industrial production is high.　　Investment round the big move fund empty camp confrontation, both sides intertwined is not only the words of war, in the mouth of the war of words, the undercurrent of capital in and out of the flow began in accordance with their preset channels flowing, surging. Capital Securities issued June 1-June 13 Fund position Fortnight Monitoring report showed that 248 open partial-stock fund average position of 77.6%, relative to the previous position 79.96% down 2.36%, if the stock market value changes in the impact of the factors,　　Overall, 248 funds relative to the last position of the roughly net change-2.94%, the monitoring cycle of the fund showed active to lighten the signs. Joint Securities released June 19 of the fund position monitoring results show that Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai Regional Fund company average positions from the previous week 76.13%, 76.31%, 72.86% Rose 27BP, 79BP, 34BP to 76.4%, 77.1%, 73.2%.　　The average position of Shenzhen Regional fund company declined from 74.51% to 74.21%.　　The Great Wall, the middle sea, the Agricultural Bank, Warburg Societe Generale's interest began to shift from the cyclical sector to the consumer sector, they believe that in the three quarter of the real economy is expected to further improve the expectations of domestic demand-led financial industry and consumer industry growth of more certainty, and actively focus on real estate, automotive, department stores, brand apparel and other industries. The Bosera fund continues to be bullish on industries related to domestic demand and wealth accumulation, such as real estate and consumer durables; with the gradual pick-up in price levels, banksIndustry will also become a good investment target; look farther, in the economic recovery of inflation expectations, resources, such as the supply of restricted industries deserve attention.　　In the eyes of the Franklin, the valuation security is the first, that the recent macro data better than expected, the financial industry will be a larger beneficiary industry, and Banrishin is that the financial sector in the market-oriented IPO restart environment has a strong role in risk aversion.　　In view of the high short-term valuation of the new energy industry, Huaan Fund recently began a slight reduction in the configuration of the new energy sector, will focus on the allocation of consumption, medical services, information software industry, but its long-term interest in the new energy sector will not be reduced because of short-term reduction in the slightest.　　Although the final plan for the new energy vehicle has not yet come out, but for passenger cars, the front-end and back-end subsidies are expected to attract the interest of the Golden Eagle Fund, the Golden Eagle Fund in the medium term bullish financial property and commercial, public utilities, food and beverage and medicine and other relatively stable performance of the industry. In the next step of the investment layout, investment fund from the perspective of security, tend to relatively low valuation level of banks, real estate, steel, coal and other large-market blue chips.　　Bullish will usher in a phased boom in steel, non-ferrous metals and coal industry. Long Trust Fund is that the focus of the follow-up market may be to the middle-midstream industry evolution, such as machinery, building materials and some non-petrochemical industry chain chemical products. Since the real estate investment in September will become a bright spot, its related industry plate is worthy of concern, mainly include: construction machinery, building materials, steel, heavy truck and PVC.