Fund manager comments A a-share rebound after 1000 points how to operate

In the face of a recovery signal from the Chinese economy and after a big rebound of more than 1000 points in a shares, how can investors tap into market opportunities?　　May 16, sponsored by the Southern Daily News agency, the 18th issue of the "Southern Wealth Forum", organized by ICBC Guangdong Branch Business Department and Hui Fu Fund Management Co., Ltd., three guest speakers suggested that investors should abandon their inherent ideas and grasp the future opportunities with new mentality and ideas in the face of the new investment environment. Among them, Jiang Saichun, chief analyst at the Trust Fund Research Center, advises investors not to "superstition" the past performance of the Fund, but rather to grasp the opportunities from the short and long term according to their own circumstances; Sulaine, the manager of the Fund, said that the basic theme of investment this year was economic recovery and inflation expectations　　, while Wang June, the general manager of the southern branch, has revealed the value of the current investment.　　Brilliant point of view Sulaine: Rebound 1000 points after a shares is a midfielder rather than the final why this year to the stock market better than the imagination? Why is the stock market better than many people think this year? Sulaine, the fund manager of the fund company, which holds billions of dollars in investment discourse, points out that the main reason is the anticipation of economic recovery and the drive for ample liquidity.　　In addition, the two quarter macroeconomic to the good factor still exists: the credit continues to expand, the investment innovation is high, the consumption steady growth, the policy dividend still exists. However, Sulaine also points out that the structural risks are now accumulating, with the risk being mainly a structural bubble in the market itself, and the risk that the recovery of the market and corporate earnings is too high to be honoured. "When will a big IPO restart?" How long can loose monetary policy be maintained?　　All these factors are worthy of concern. Sulaine that the current expansion of credit and liquidity in the unconventional environment of unconventional policies. Continuity should be assured before the economic recovery trend is fully entrenched. "Whether the change depends on two points: the first is the economic recovery process, the investment is really good, exports are up, it is possible to tighten the monetary tightening, the second is the situation of inflation, now the investment in so many currencies, the underlying inflationary pressure is unavoidable. Easy monetary policy conversion is likely to be the fastest in the second half of this year, with slow words likely to be two quarters next year. "Several stages of the market rally began last December, Sulaine thinks it can be divided into several stages, from the end of last year to this year's March, the main factor is the liquidity of the drive; from the beginning of this April, the market has a style of transfer, which is a double wheel drive, a liquidity-driven, one is the performance growth driver.　　In the second half of the year, liquidity is likely to shrink, which may be driven by performance growth, and liquidity has a relatively negative impact on the market. In this respect, Sulaine slightly worried, "as an investment, this year's economy is not particularly good, but the liquidity is very loose, investment in the stock market is still a relatively good period, by next year, if the credit contraction and liquidity contraction, and listed companies profit is less than expected, the 2010-year investment environment may be less than 2009 years. But 2009 years of two or three quarters overall look at the stock market investment environment is relatively ideal. "Investment strategy advice on investment strategy, Sulaine said, the main line is still economic recovery and inflation expectations, bullish domestic demand-oriented industries and non-trade goods, the concept of inflation benefits asset and resource sector should focus on." But he reminded investors to pay attention to market style switching, risk awareness should be strengthened, some of the FRY have no performance support stocks have already peaked.　　He also said that this year's one investment theme is mergers and acquisitions, investors to combine mergers and acquisitions restructuring and bullish plate, can get more obvious excess income. Jiang Saichun: The fund performance is often face to face investment in the future with the economic difficult recovery process, the stock market began to show early signs of turning cattle. In this process, how do we grasp the opportunity?　　Jiang Saichun, chief analyst at the Trust Research Center, said that from the past wave of great bull market to the present, the fund industry's "big face" may bring us the inspiration of the change of investment idea. The "big face" of the fund industry looks back to the lumpy's fund investment market since 2008, and 2008 was a very dismal year for the Fund's investment, with a loss of more than 50% a year. But data statistics show that by the end of April, the 2009 performance of the best stock-type and partial-stock growth of more than 50%, biased equity fund performance overall warmer, the fund performance appears "Big Face".　　From a ranking point of view, the first equity fund in 2008, 2009-year rebound in the bottom 20, last year the worst performance of equity funds, 2009-year performance growth of more than 60%. Why is there so much change? Jiang Saichun said that as an investment, the key is to grasp the future, grasp the premise of the future is to understand the past. But for most investors, the information available is how well the fund has performed in the past. But if the 2009 market is based on the performance of the 2008-year fund, it could make a big mistake, 2008 years good and 2009 worse. "This is because the market investment environment has changed, it means that the fund investment opportunities and risks have also changed."　　"Is it time to buy a fund?" The investment opportunities of the Fund, especially the partial stock fund, depend on the future investment environment of the capital market. Jiang Saichun said: "This includes long-term judgments and short-term judgments, long-term judgment is to determine the investor strategy, to the basic market long-term, strategic trends to judge and grasp." At the same time inevitable short-term judgment, this period of time the market index will be how, for example, 2,300 points, 2,400 points, 2,500 points, has been up to 2,600 points, whether the buy fund, this is a short-term judgment. Jiang Saichun said the current investment opportunity is in the post-crisis investment stage, in the long run, whether it is the stock market or the economy, the recovery is determined, the recovery has been ahead of the economic recovery, the stock market recovery is to investors, or market confidence in the future as the targetLog。 "We are now in the midst of a gradual recovery, and the longer-term trend is to step up, but this recovery is not a quick recovery." The market is bound to adjust, there will be oscillation, it is impossible to continue to rise. For the short-term point of view, Jiang Saichun that the stock market at a high level of the risk of oscillation, opportunities will be differentiated. In this kind of market, investment fund's difficulty is bigger.　　Some foundations make money, some lose. How does the investment strategy propose to choose the Fund from the perspective of short and long term respectively? Jiang Saichun's advice is: a short-term strategy: active investors can use a portion of their assets for flexible stock funds, while using ETFs or closed-end funds for band-time operations; For most robust investors, there is little certainty that the stock market is now up or down,　　The best strategy is to choose a more stable style of funds to invest.　　Long-term strategy: On the one hand, we can optimize the investment style of good quality biased stock funds as a long-term basic configuration; On the other hand, in the stock market shocks low, step in the allocation of some index funds. Wang June: Fund investment is the magic weapon of Life financial planning "investment in fact with our life is very close, every month of social security, medical insurance, pension, enterprise annuity and general insurance, is in fact a fixed vote", Hui Fu Fund South Branch (CHIP)　　Wang June, the general manager of the very image of the analogy from another angle to explain the way to invest money. He said that there is no "steady profit" investment product in the world, but can use the fund to invest this kind of investment way, long-term, continue to invest the capital, reduce the investment cost, greatly raise the probability of making money 0 investors like to buy original stocks, because the cost is low, and the investment cost can be reduced to the same as the original stock as cheap. "He cited an example of an investor buying a fund at a price of 10 dollars two days before the Asian financial crisis. After the financial crisis, the Fund had fallen to a minimum of 2 dollars. A few years later, the fund rose back to 6 dollars. Judging by common sense, the investor suffered a 40% loss.　　But in fact, the investor did not lose, he through the fund set to pull down the fund investment costs, instead of 40% profit. "People's life is like enterprise, need to operate, need to plan." Wang June mentioned that children's education is the most concerned financial goals of many families. "According to incomplete statistics, the current upbringing of a child from the age of 0 to 16 years, for children to complete, including primary school, middle school, high school education, about the cost of 200,000-500,000 yuan, if the extension to the age of 25 to complete higher education, it will cost 600,000-1 million yuan, if you also hope that the children go abroad Then the total cost of education could reach 1.6 million-2 million yuan.　　He said, "The family has children, will invest in the rich" activities, so that children from a fixed investment in the way to contact financial knowledge, not only add up to raise education funds, but also can help children learn how to manage money, two birds with one stone. Investment strategy Recommendations He quotes Warren Buffett's famous quote that for manyFor ordinary investors, investment index funds are the simplest and most effective way to invest, so the fund will issue a Shanghai Composite Index fund in the near future, through the most familiar index of investors to help CDI long-term financial management, accumulate wealth. Live interactive new Energy investment theme not end audience: Many of the public offerings are investment elites, but why did they bring so many losses to the holders in 2008?　　is private placement more advantageous than public offering? Jiang Saichun: It should be said that the 2008 fund net worth of large losses, investors and mutual funds are responsible. Investors should be aware that market conditions such as those in the 2008 are unlikely to be completely safe from stock-fund products. In a market that has fallen unilaterally, even if fund managers are predicting a fall, they want to sell stocks, but to whom? There was no one to do it.　　To the public offering fund, we must pay attention to, in the long run, public offering funds can only obtain the average income of the market, because the market value of circulation is too large, it is not possible in the overall large run to win the market often rise, we demand public funds to achieve excess income, and the fall, but also absolute return, it is unrealistic. Public offering funds and private equity fund operating mode is different, fixed management fee is public fund operating mode, private equity is to make money, but lose money also do not pay, from this point of view is not necessarily stronger than the public fund too much. and private equity is targeted at a handful of high-end investors, with a high threshold.　　Some private equity managers do very well, but there are a lot of private equity, the performance is worse than the public fund, and make money, lose money but not pay.　　New energy and brokerage sector also have the opportunity to audience: this year to the new energy sector is very strong, and the past bull market, the mainstream of the trend of securities brokerage plate is weaker, this is why this situation? Sulaine: First of all, look at the new energy sector, in the long run, the clean energy characteristics of new energy to gradually replace the oil and coal is the trend. This year, the policy for the relevant industries to support a large, and then the valuation has a margin of security, has a certain investment value, but after a sharp rise, short-term profits and long-term development of the contradictions began to highlight the investment attraction is falling.　　The investment theme of new energy will not end, but we will choose the company that grows more clearly. This year the market is good, volume amplification, brokerage stocks but the general reasons, I think the main reason is because this round of rising everyone has not always formed a consistent expectation, the market is in the hesitation, repeated oscillation in the rise.　　If the formation of consistent expectations, I believe that the brokerage sector will have the opportunity.　　The goal should be the same as the life target audience: Now the banks and the fund companies are advocating long-term investment, but I am worried about if the end of the vote is just a big bear market, how to do? Wang June: We must realize that the investment is only a way to invest, perhaps a lot of people take the expected income statement to you, it is indeed uncertain. In terms of investment, the effect of a fixed investment is to reduce costs;Whether or not to reach the goal, to decide is to end early or continue to vote. If you are worried about market volatility, some commercial banks such as ICBC have launched a smart investment approach, that is, according to market fluctuations to adjust the amount of investments to reduce risk.