Gu Mingde: Moderation does not mean tightening

Financial Observer Gu Mingde recently reported daily reports that the central bank's tightening rate hike or reserve requirement ratio was finally cashed yesterday, but the rate hike is still expected. This week the market is strong, and people interpret the prudent monetary policy as austerity.　　In fact, there is an essential difference between the two. First, prudent monetary policy is a combination of objectives, such as inflation-proof and stable growth. The goal of austerity is a single, inflation-proof approach. Growth figures for the second half of the year have fallen from season to year, with the drop in export orders falling sharply and the growth in infrastructure and property investment falling. In this case, the core of monetary policy is stability, not tightening. The idea that the central bank should raise interest rates by 3% per cent is clearly out of the economy. That tightening would immediately crush China's economy.　　The central government cannot adopt such austerity measures. Second, even according to the media forecasts, next year, the size of new loans is about 7 trillion, currency issuance growth of about 15%. Such data, in any case, cannot be called austerity, at best a return to normality, the first two years of an increase in credit scale of 9.6 trillion is entirely special circumstances special measures.　　China's real economy is 1/3 of the United States, China's commercial banks in a year to enterprises and individuals to increase the scale of loans more than the United States, such credit and currency delivery can be called austerity? Third, next year is the Twelve-Five plan for the first year, the local side of the new round of development planning to start. Local urban infrastructure construction, subways, highways, airports and other projects must be launched. This will determine the first year of each five years of macro-control difficult to tighten. The central point of prudent monetary policy is to consider flexibility, pertinence, effectiveness. Do not deviate from China's national conditions to speculate on monetary policy, not to be confused by the media hype. In most cases, China's monetary policy emphasizes moderation or tightening.　　But even on the tight side, the actual credit scale and currency delivery are above double digits. Four, whether monetary policy is gradually tightening, the key to see prices and prices. This is a step-by-step thing, it is impossible to plan ahead. Into the December, the national consumer prices have stabilized, price turnover has rebounded. But in the high pressure of the housing tax, house prices have stalled.　　The national overall price index is relatively stable at present, in this trend, the central bank will not be lightly engaged in taking measures will be left and right to consider, any radical plan is not adapted to the current situation. In short, monetary policy is indeed in the adjustment phase. This has created a corresponding pressure on the stock market recently, but this does not mean that monetary policy is tightening and stocks cannot do it. There is no big systemic crisis in China's real economy, which is better than the world average, such as the US. In other countries, the stock market even hit a new year high, with what Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market declines before the rise? Even raising interest rates does not mean that the economy and the stock market have gone downhill.