Hong Kong "The Investor" Cao Renshu: To grasp the trend with eyes and ears mouth and nose

Each reporter Li Wenyi a A-share if rose to 3,300 points, August-October will adjust to 2,600 points. The last quarter entered the second phase of the bull market, for 3-5 years, three bull time 6-9 years Hong Kong gem only suitable for institutional and senior investor investors most need to master is the main trend, investment strategy flexible application, strict discipline from poor boys to billionaires, the legendary "stock of the stock" Cao Renshu, recently by virtue of "on the potential" A book in the mainland investment market is becoming more and more famous. In the 40-year investment career, Cao Renshu's personal wealth has accumulated from HK $5000 to HK $200 million and investment experience is worth sharing.　　Yesterday, "Daily economic news" on its exclusive interview, by the investor affectionately known as Cao Sir, he currently only use his own 40% of movable funds to invest, and bullish on the mainland market.　　On the first phase of the A-share bull market ended in 6 July NBD: Many people try to predict the bottom of this round of economic crisis, if the real bottom arrives, I believe there will be a signal, do you think these signals have appeared?　　Cao Renshu (CAO): In fact, the predictability of the economic operation is very low, which is why most economists can not see the reason, and the stock market has a certain predictability. NBD: Then talk about the mainland investors most concerned about the A-share market!　　What's your opinion on the future?　　Cao: In fact, the analysis of a-share market I do not have much confidence, because I am not in the A-share market growth, but to apply the past from the Hong Kong stock market experience to analyze, the provision of advice is only a big box, can not reach the point of intensive cultivation.　　Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in early April this year have confirmed the bull market, because the 50-day moving average back to 250-day moving average above, this is the international market is often used in the bull recognition method, accuracy of up to 93%, on behalf of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market bear market ended on November 4, 2008.　　The day of the bull market rise is three months and nine months long, starting from November 4, 2008, the calculation has continued to rise for eight months, usually the index 50 days on the moving average on the 250-day moving average, there will be one months of rise, but the A-share market this "cow" strength is not small, maintain longer some. This is not surprising, believe that the rise in a shares this 6 July the likelihood of a larger end of this year, then expected to adjust the market before the increase of about 1/3, which calculated a A-share bull market the end of the first phase of the adjustment in the third quarter of this year.　　If this wave can rise to 3,300 points, and then adjust, 8, 9, 103 months will be adjusted to around 2,600 points. However, in the fourth quarter, the start of a A-share will enter a long period of the second bull market, may last 3-5 years, this wave is the longest most people to make money, and then adjust, then the bull market third phase, the third phase and the first phase of the situation is similar.　　It usually takes 6-9 years for the entire three-phase bull market to go through.　　The above is a simple Dow theory, that is, the bull market is divided into three periods, investors need to adopt different investment strategies in different periods. NBD: Reference to Hong Kong stock marketfield experience, the A-share market is about to launch the gem how to look?　　Cao: Hong Kong's gem is not successful, all in the gem listed companies are high-risk, high returns, and these SMEs will be able to grow into big business opportunities only 1/10, the remaining 90% is not change. I think that Hong Kong's GEM enterprises only suitable for institutional investors and senior investors, they have a wealth of experience from the selection of high-quality enterprises to invest, not suitable for ordinary investors, ordinary investors or investment in the main board listed companies as well.　　As for the mainland gem, I do not know the deep, dare not comment.　　NBD: In the stock market, currently bullish on those industries?　　Cao: This wave A-share bull market, I invest in H-Shares in the resource stocks, energy stocks mainly, I believe these industries will peak in 6 July, as for a-share bull market two period of investment, please wait for the stock market to complete the adjustment and then discuss with you.　　NBD: In your book on potential, there is great hope for China's future economic development, what role do you think China will play in the future global economic development? Cao: The book assumes that the future economic development model of the mainland is similar to that of Hong Kong in the past, that is, after the completion of the 30-year industrial development period (1951 to 1981), after three-year adjustment, Hong Kong has entered a 23-year economic boom since July 1984.　　If the above situation is set in the future economic development of the mainland, that is to say, from 2009 to 2025, the overall direction of the mainland in respect of real estate or stock market is upward.　　On the most important NBD of investment grasp the trend: with your 40 years of investment experience, what skills or knowledge do you think you need to master before investing? Cao: For the general investors, the most need to master is the main trend, investment strategy flexible use, strict discipline.　　This is what I have written in the "on the potential", "controversy", "the nature" of the three books. Knowledge is not the most important factor in investment success. Skills are the same, I have not seen a "trend faction" in 40 to make a lot of money.　　Those who have more than HK $1 billion in Hong Kong have a good grasp of the "times".　　NBD: How can we master the trend? Cao: Must be eyes, ears, mouth, nose and use, usually see more, listen more, and analytical ability of people more discussion, nose to sniff.　　Some people really have a "market nose", you can smell the trend of the fast rise or fall off the atmosphere, English is called "Marketnose", which is accumulated after a certain experience of the "market sense."　　NBD: What happens if you lose 80% of your current wealth? Cao: Haha, I can not lose all the wealth of 80%, because, after 60 years old I will only be able to use 40% of the funds to invest, this investment is 100 years of age minus the age, I have learned to stop, at any time once the loss of more than 15%, then do not ask for reasons to stop.　　So, for me, the biggest loss of investment would be 20% of the available funds, not 80% of the total.　　On wealthPublic transport to eat lunch box NBD: Many people's dream is to achieve financial freedom through investment, and you have already achieved this dream, how do you feel?　　What is the change in your outlook on wealth? Cao: Today I have to the level of a small rich, I feel good.　　For poor people, they can help them financially. From the youth of nothing to today's small rich, the concept of personal wealth has not changed, money, should spend flowers, should not spend not spend.　　The basic necessities are the same as the ordinary people: a more than 10 Hong Kong dollar lunch box still eat with relish, clothing is often a casual clothes plus suit pants, go out by plane is economy class, there is no small car to work, all by public transport, my living environment 30 years, basically nothing changes.　　NBD: From "Rich Dad" to "laughing Dad", what is the meaning of laughter?　　Cao: Because of his age, I think many things are very ridiculous, both to know how to laugh at themselves can also ridicule the world, many things can be laughed at all, no big deal. For example, others criticize oneself in May not to look optimistic, oneself laugh.　　People to 60 years old do not care about gain and loss, should learn to "put down".　　Cao Renshu Introduction? Formerly known as Cho, Hong Kong financial columnist, analyst. 1967 graduated from high school to join the society, the first job is a textile company intern, 1968 switch to the securities industry. Has served as "Ming Pao" reference Room, in 1973 and Lin Shanmu founded the letter newspaper Financial News, is now the "letter" director and columnist, every Saturday in the "letter" writing "Investor Diary" column, with relaxed and interesting strokes, analysis of Hong Kong and the political situation, the article is very entertaining, including investment wisdom and philosophy of life, Therefore, a lot of readers support, especially in the pursuit of some Hong Kong investors, whose works have been compiled into a book.