Mobile New Deal severely punish cottage machine built-in mobile phone download class site will be hit

The intermediary transaction SEO diagnoses Taobao guest stationmaster buys the Cloud host technology Hall

2008, the SP industry from the peak of three years ago, shrinking 80%, now just out of the trough, but will usher in a new round of crackdown, this has a decade of history of the industry to wither has been inevitable. Mobile internet start-ups will also be deeply affected.

Tencent Science and Technology (Li Ledong Yang Zhongxiong) August 12 News, a report on the internal management of the SP, is still in the mobile high-rise internal circulation, but has let the major SP company panic. Tencent Technology exclusive learned that the fastest September 1, mobile will be in the domestic launch of a new round of SP regulation of the storm, the focus of the renovation will be accounted for the main SP revenue on-demand business.

In fact, as early as one months ago, some of the domestic SP enterprises have access to relevant early warning information. According to the insider said, until a few days ago, mobile group company really passed this policy, "the end of August is expected to be sent to the SP, the September full implementation is a certainty."

It is predicted that once the policy is fully implemented, currently accounted for the domestic SP industry 70% of the demand for the business will be destroyed, the highest income shrinkage may reach 60–70%, the entire industry may be nearly half the loss of the scale of tens of billions of yuan level. At present, the major SP enterprises are discussing the corresponding countermeasures.

Mobile new discipline appears in three major versions: it is bound to be fully implemented nationwide in early September

Tencent technology from a number of channels learned that the current policy to determine in the mobile internal meeting was passed, will soon be released to the domestic SP hand. Its core content is that all SP companies in China all on-demand business, the full implementation of billing reminders and confirmation services.

The earliest version of the message originated from a professional website. The site message shows: Mobile will be from September 1 onwards on the VOD business implementation of "three times confirmation."

The so-called "three confirmed", presumably referring to the previous "two confirmed" that the user in the application for the demand business, will be the third time to receive a confirmation message, users can select within 1 hours to confirm or refuse to pay (including not reply).

The news also exposed four SMS templates for the new deal, including requests for confirmation of text messages, confirmation of automatic reply messages, and cancellation of messages not confirmed by the user within 1 hours.

However, Tencent technology from another reliable source of information is: Mobile in September 1 launched the new policy, not the rumors of the "three confirmed", its real name is "SMS on Demand billing reminder."

"The content is similar, but there is a certain difference, because there is no ' three confirmation ' in the mobile." "The above people said, the so-called on-demand billing reminder, but also in the user application on-demand business, the system will automatically send users mobile phone detailed billing reminders, users must choose to agree to deduct fees."

As early as July this year, the domestic major SP monthly business has been fully two confirmation and billing reminders, but according to the order on-demand business does not regulate in the column. The above people said that, because the demand for SP-wide industry revenue of more than 60%, so the previous monthly policy has little impact, and this on-demand billing reminder measures are "very lethal."

By contrast, Tencent Technology has only learned the third version of the rumor is more authentic. August 11 Night, the head of a well-known investment agency in China to Tencent revealed that mobile in the September 1 comprehensive online, is actually "two confirmed" "No differential Implementation version", although the measures are not fresh, but the intensity and scope of "unprecedented."

"No differential implementation, is all the provinces, all the SP company's on-demand business, must implement this procedure, not spared." ”

The personage explained to Tencent Science and technology, although mobile in 2005 launched this policy, but has been partial implementation, not large area on-line. Previously, only the SP business complained of, will be implemented in the province two confirmed, the vast majority of SP companies (including A, B, C-level), most provinces, are the implementation of the SP credit System. He disclosed that after September 1 this year, operators rely on the credit system to manage the SP's practice will be completely canceled.

It is reported that this policy will be implemented nationwide on September 1, including the Air network, Sina, Sohu and other well-known companies, such as SMS, MMS, and other on-demand business, will be affected by a large area. "Once the comprehensive two-time confirmation policy is implemented, I believe that the domestic SP industry will return to a 2007-2008-year downturn." ”

Trouble the inside of the cottage machine disorderly elephant industry personage worry "outsmart"

It is understood that the introduction of the "September new rules", its original intention is to combat the continuous mobile phone with the built-in menu phenomenon. Since the beginning of the year, the mobile phone built-in menu phenomenon has aroused the attention of the Ministry of Industry and operators, 5 months ago, CCTV 3-15 Party related reports, but also accelerated the process of the entire sector.

By moving the following requirements: All SP business must be pulled out of the cottage and parallel to the mobile phone's built-in menu by July 1. After the violation of the built-in phenomenon, the relevant SP will be stopped business. At the same time, mobile also issued a "value-added services to order active reminder service" and "0000 business inquiries and unsubscribe services" two measures.

The built-in phenomenon of Shanzhai phones has been curbed to some extent. However, the Ministry of Information in Sichuan, the recent detection of SP governance found that: from the beginning of the early years of the cottage machine governance measures, there is still a resurgence of signs. In response to the policy, mobile phones and bad SP can still be through many channels malicious deduction fees.

A new round of regulation of the storm. According to the said anonymity of the people said, from September onwards, users ordering on-demand business, will receive a 6-digit number of digital string dynamic verification code billing reminder, users must enter the 6 digits in an hour to reply to the text message, can calculate the success of consumption. If the confirmation is two times, the user's reply procedure may be relatively simple.

"According to the general logic, before the user responds to the demand, things have been bought." It would be almost impossible to ask him to confirm the payment. "The person judged that once the full online two confirmed, will be a serious blow to the domestic demand business."

Even more worrying is that this policy on the Shanzhai machine built-in business, although a certain blow, but the new sale of mobile phones can still be through technical means, shielding and automatically reply two times to confirm the message. In other words, the mobile phone can still force users on-demand consumption, and can identify the verification code and reply to confirm the information, the process of disorderly deduction is still silent.

"My predictions are somewhat pessimistic. The estimated impact on the Shanzhai phone business is only about 20%, short term, but not lethal. The real fatal is the normal SP business, the most optimistic forecast will lose more than 60%. The person predicts.

Mobile Gaming and downloading websites will be hit hard by mobile internet entrepreneurs

It is understood that the current message on demand mainly related to mobile phone games (including mobile gaming), download class (digital signature, ringtones) and other business forms. Domestic air network, TOM, Sike and other mainstream enterprises related to the volume of business is very alarming. These businesses will be hit hard by the operators ' September New Deal.

Founded in 2004, mobile gaming platform when the music network, previously and Lei investment UCWeb by the industry as a "minority" representative to maintain the momentum. However, once the implementation of the SP New Deal, the mobile phone game as the main industry network will undoubtedly face a huge test.

Previously, according to data, when the music net monthly income in millions of yuan, the source mainly has three aspects, one is when the music net serves as the mobile games manufacturer's promotion channel, Next is the joint operation, when the music net and the game trader according to 46 proportion or 55 proportion divides; third is the exclusive agency and the distribution.

Another two mobile gaming companies will face the same crisis when they visit the sky and widen their own. At present, two company-related games ranked in the forefront of the domestic, monthly income at millions of yuan level, the main revenue channel is to rely on a single VOD business. Once the on-demand failure rate exceeds 60%, their losses will be unbearable.

The bigger crisis is the new Deal's subversion of the business model of mobile gaming. Before the game through on-demand charges very smoothly. For example, a pet is dead and the user can resurrect it on demand. But after the new policy, after the pet resurrection, users can easily cancel the demand and refused to pay.

A 6-year-old mobile gaming Enterprise Senior to Tencent Technology, he had a year through the WAP site to put tens of thousands of yuan ads, can get at least 150% of the revenue. But now he has to consider completely abandoning the second half of the advertising effort. "The income fell very badly. From July to date, the code has been changed several times, the mobile phone game this industry can not do. ”

The potential negative effects are also spreading deep into the industrial chain, and the mobile Internet industry, represented by free WAP sites, will undoubtedly become the first "pressure" echelon of the shock wave. Because the industry's profit channel, a large part from mobile phone game ads and various types of SP business cooperation.

"Those small and medium sites will be hardest hit because they rely more on sources such as SP." "Internet analyst Liu Xingliang to Tencent Technology," from the earliest free WAP Web site to independent WAP, these companies in 2005 to 2008 traffic has been rapid growth, but the current weak follow-up. ”

Independent WAP Site Rankings change list

The deterioration of the survival environment of small and medium-sized start-up companies is inevitable. In the past two years, the domestic WAP site has experienced many failures: Mobile SNS website million Butterfly blog announced closure, the World Network founder chose to run away, the company sold to the Japanese consortium operation, formerly known as the State Network, tiger online, rub nets have fallen out of the mainstream camp, fishing nets are also squeezed by internet companies out of the 10.

Why do entrepreneurs fall in batches? A letter from Analysys International said to Tencent, "mobile internet age is very demanding for entrepreneurs, not only need to fully understand the user needs, focus on product details and user experience, fully understand mobile terminals and networks, but also to form a rapid response mechanism, and have sufficient patience to control the pace of development according to environmental change." "The so-called" environmental change ", apparently including the September 1 mobile New Deal, such as the unexpected blow.

"The main reason is that the mobile Internet is based on 3G, but China has not yet entered the 3G era." "The Flying Elephant net CEO Xiang thinks," complete network, platform construction, intelligent terminal, business consummation. At present, the domestic at the above four points are deficient; Although we all see the opportunity to see the future, but the sun really did not rise. ”

Client + Bypass abroad: not to save the way

After the sale of the World Network, Pengfei alone from Shanghai back to Beijing, low-key mobile phone client application of the two-time venture.

In retrospect of entrepreneurial setbacks, Wang said: "The current mobile Internet web site development is weak, partly because the traditional internet companies began to work on the wireless, traffic is more dispersed." Another reason is that the site itself lacks innovative applications to attract more users. ”

Pengfei recently expressed appreciation for the business model of moving to foreign markets. "The industry is doing a good job in the start-up companies, including easy to check and NetQin, they are relatively low-key, but found a bold and innovative way, that is, in the foreign market first development, with good cash flow, and then firmly develop the domestic market." ”

In fact, many of the domestic mobile phone developers have been relying on the Apple App Store and Google Android platform to survive. Compared with domestic enterprises, they are able to obtain higher dollar income with very low labor costs. The days are relatively good. Moreover, they can completely get rid of the mobile dream network model, thus farewell to the closed industrial environment.

"This phenomenon is worthy of domestic mobile internet entrepreneurs to learn, because China's mobile Internet development level is already the international leading level, we can also from the traditional simple processing exports to high value-added virtual product exports." Pengfei explains.

However, some people in the industry said that for China's mobile internet industry, the simple processing of exports is not the way to save. The future of global competition will start from the core area.

In the mobile internet era, the single mode of operation is sure to become a pawn in the industry's giants, according to the consultancy's Bayesian report. The operating system, as the heart and soul of the mobile phone, is an important factor in the success of smartphones and the third biggest highland of mobile internet competition. Therefore, the construction of software + hardware + operating system, and then build a comprehensive industrial chain model is becoming the consensus of the global giants.

This claim also obtains Xiang and so on industry personage's approval. Xiang that, from Apple's iphone and Google Android, the layout around the operating system will revolutionize the entire mobile industry. At present, domestic enterprises only mobile and Lenovo in this respect began to move, but the progress is far behind.

From this point of view, to dream of the network as the representative of the overall die of SP mode is not necessarily not the beginning of the domestic mobile Internet to open and comprehensive competition.