When you hear the name Guevara, most people will Guevara summed up as one word - "sell movie tickets." Cinema ticketing can be said that Guevara is the core business, whether it is from the user volume (15 million users), the number of seats available online selections (expected by the end of more than 1000 mainstream cinema), or sales (accounting for 75 % Of the share, this year is expected to achieve sales of nearly 1 billion yuan) point of view, in the movie ticketing this segment, Guevara can be said at the moment is a dominance. O2O project operations have their own complexities and need to be settled in a single area, so Guevara will also occupy the film market, at least for now.
However, in view of Liu Yong, he does not want to let Guevara become a mere ticket station, Guevara should be a "more interesting thing." During his conversation with more than an hour, apart from seeing the recent development of Guevara and planning for some time afterwards, I also saw one of the Guevara he wanted.
Guevara is now arguably one of the most prominent O2O projects. Starting from the movie ticketing, it derives a chain of service related to watching movies. When talking about this service chain, Yong calls it a "closed service chain," and one word that I keep thinking of is "O2O closed loop." The concept of "O2O closed loop" that has been floating in the sky seems to be able to see signs of falling on Guevara.
Guevara's O2O closed loop: Throughout the viewing process of the entire service chain
Because of WeChat fever, the term "O2O closed loop" has become rampant this year, but most people's perception of the word is the same as "online dominant transaction, offline service, back online" . Clearly "O2O closed loop" is not just such a simple thing, it should be said that the core of O2O is to emphasize a "control demand" capability. Consumers rely on service capabilities that run through the entire demand phase, after which further industrial controls are formed. WeChat to do this, quite hard. This point is not started, the main thing to say here is how Guevara formed such a closed-loop control ability.
Since the closed-loop control of demand began, it must first talk about the closed-loop analysis needs. The beginning of the demand is the user's awareness of wanting to watch a movie. Under this awareness, the user has a series of phased demands. I will illustrate this with the following figure.
Guevara three user-targeted products - websites, mobile terminals, ticket machines, it is based on this clue and set up. Websites and Mobile Guevara @ Movie provides users with information and ticketing services, terminates service upon receipt of tickets and then prompts users to return to websites and mobiles.
√ Get video information: The main content is the user-written reviews and wow (product form similar to the microblogging short comment interaction) and the user viewing the score.
√ Get cinema information: Improve the schedule and cinema information, pay attention to the parking lot, 3D glasses, popcorn and other details of the issue.
√ Seat Ticket Selection: The website seat ticketing system is synchronized with the theater ticketing system.
√ Admission video: although not directly to the user to provide filming services, but by the ticket machine to complete the final convergence.
√ Post Review: The two UGC sections, Film Critics and Wow La, form a self-cycle like the public comment, again rerouting users from the wire and triggering new requirements.
In this closed-loop, the theater's role has been drastically weakened, almost becoming a mere theater. Guevara has run a variety of services outside the screening, at each stage can form an effective influence on the user. This shows that Guevara is indeed not just a ticketing station, but an "online seat selection" as the core viewing solution.
It's not just because it's Guevara's source of income, but more importantly, that's where users must go. As far as theaters themselves are concerned, "seat selection" and "entrance viewing" equal one-handed delivery, which is the basic service of the cinema business model. Now that Guevara was given the right to vote for the seat, the theater was essentially tied to Guevara on a rope. The same ticket, Guevara and buy site for the theater and the value of the user, there is a big difference. Buying sites sold only a voucher, does not mean that the user has completed the entire pre-viewing preparations, of which there are still many variables, Guevara tickets sold is a ticket containing the actual number of seats and seats Not to mention even out of the vote under its control. If you want to play for example, buy is provided a "predictable result", Guevara is given a "definitive result." Such as Guevara this system to open up the depth of cooperation, not deep plowing for a group buy site certainly can not be compared.
Mastered the "online seat selection," the core point, Guevara can only through the movie reviews and Wow, a matter of course to establish a "started in UGC, finally UGC" O2O closed-loop. In this closed loop, each user serves as both a content consumer and a content contributor, as well as a service consumer. Such a good thing, let alone O2O, look at the entire Internet are rare. Watercress, this well-known youth can only hold the film critics dry flow of cash. At best, group buying is just a distribution channel for theaters, and often deals with defective products (non-cinema and non-popular). O2O in other fields, such as taxi application taxi, or ordering website hungry and so on and because of the depth of cooperation with service providers and payment habits and other issues, temporarily still can not control the payment link. So Guevara this by the online and offline together to build the ring, perhaps the most complete now closed.
Guevara's user concept: Friends of Girlfriend on the theory
Liu Yong said that Guevara and its users as "God", it is better to the user as their "good partner, good friends, good girlfriends," This is Guevara after a long time to think of the conclusion. Imagine what you would say to him if his buddy wanted to watch a movie, maybe you might want to talk about which movie was worth seeing lately, maybe you would recommend one of your theaters, maybe you'll get the story together In short, it is like being a good base friend all the time. "Friends of Friends of the" Guevara is the user concept, it can be said that the product direction.
At this point, Liu Yong repeatedly stressed the user experience, such as how to maximize the user experience, how to think about the needs of users like a friend's point of view. For this argument I'd think it can be another point of view, Guevara so-called want to maximize the user experience, the actual control of users want to achieve the ultimate. Not so much the ability to compete products, not as good as competing in all aspects of control. Can form a closed-loop service chain, is not it the best proof?
We can make the assumption that if Guevara does not base his business model on "gurus", that would probably reinforce sales-related services and sales routes and become an upgraded version of the movie-ticket-buying site. If so, what will happen to Naguela's current development?
This is hard to say. May be in the tide of the group buy 2011 is buried, and then half live. It may also be very impressive in this area, such as the Barley Net, which specializes in ticketing. But what is certain is that if such a route is followed, Guevara will not be able to get away from the ticketing station anyway and the user just treats him as a ticket buying channel, and that is not to say anything loyal. Buy site sticky? Most buy users are price-driven locust users, there is no loyalty at all. As a result, Guevara will inevitably fall into the fight price, fighting the harsh environment. Do not say that can win the fight (at least on the issue of traffic, Liu Yong made it very hard to spell), but this is not burning the profits of the company, of course, most companies are not willing to do.
Guevara's "Friends of the Friends of the", in fact, is to pegged to the experience-driven users, to avoid being caught in unfavorable competition. These users are of high value and are willing to pay a price differential to reduce the hassle and risk of viewing during their price expectations. To seize these users, Guevara must allow users to pay more for him. The time cost users are willing to pay is often proportional to their loyalty. To do this, Guevara can do is subdivide the phased needs to extend the service chain, and guide users to contribute UGC. From the service chain point of view, Guevara is getting better, and mentioned that there have been more than one version of the optimization plan (the dialogue revealed only to me the version name, the specific changes I look forward to ... but the direction is further details Dig and improve professionalism). However, in this piece of UGC, it seems Guevara also need some time of development, it is possible to catch up with the well-known literary students Douban.
Although at this stage, Guevara's "Friends of the Friends of the" actual effect, for the time being its "online seating" so obvious, such as did not see the site has a very prominent repeat purchase rate (but on this point, it is The possible reason is that the growth of new users is too fast). But in the long run, this is undoubtedly the right direction, because if we want to say what the real barriers to O2O are, I think there is only stickiness of the users that have precipitated over time.
The Future of Guevara: The Data Warehouse Behind the Film Industry
Guevara's closed-loop is increasingly perfect, the user control is also growing, so what's the future? I would like to discuss this issue, you need to look at Guevara's business structure.
1, from the business classification point of view, Guevara at this stage mainly by the film, performance, sports three categories of business composition. There is no doubt that the movie is the most mature category, once also profitable. The performance and movement started late, not yet formed.
2. The service of each category is slightly different. The two major categories of film and performance are ticketing, while the sports category is planned to include three types of services, such as reservation of places, purchase of membership cards and purchase of training.
3, is now under the category of sports and fitness business, according to speculation, may be the fourth time in an appropriate time to become the fourth largest category. Parting may be due to the differences between the pre-determined mode of sports venues and the membership card modes of fitness venues.
4, In the field of film, in addition to the well-known series of products for users ticketing services, there are also independent products specially developed for cinema parties and producers.
Obviously, Guevara has three main ways to expand after 20 million U.S. dollars in financing: regional expansion, the horizontal expansion of the segment business, and the vertical expansion of the movie business. These three kinds of expansion methods will be carried out in parallel with the situation. In the view of Liu Yong, what is the most important thing? Although we did not ask this question directly during the conversation, we can see the clue from the other two questions. When asked "what is the most urgent problem that Guevara needs to solve", Liu Yong gave the answer that "we need to occupy the market as quickly as possible rather than profit." When asked about "what plans for next year, such as performance and sports areas," Liu Yong explicitly told "there is no clear plan to improve the film first." From this we can judge, in the eyes of Liu Yong, the expansion of the scale of the first, vertical expansion for the second, lateral expansion last.
Logically, such a plan is reasonable. Guevara's movie ticketing stage has been profitable in the market is not saturated, it can almost be said that this business model has been proven. In this case, it is undoubtedly the most important task to occupy the market without delay. After all, the Internet is an industry that values scale. Moreover, Guevara will only be smoother in its vertical expansion only if it is further scaled up to obtain more user data.
Here, let's say that Guevara from user control to industrial control of two hidden weapon. Compared to the mobile terminal, the ticket machine these visible products, Guevara cinema and producer for the development of two business-assisted products, the outside world did not know the whole picture, perhaps this is the first time the media disclosed these two products The presence. For these two products, even in this conversation, Liu Yong did not carry too much description of his business model, but still can understand the ruins of a prototype.
Since it has been working with the cinema side, it is not surprising that there is a product for the cinema side to enhance the connection between the two parties.
However, Guevara is trying to get involved in the operation of the theater through the product, such as helping to improve attendance in theaters. On the other hand, Guevara provided the producer with a product that helps the producer to arrange the film. This product is now in more than 80 issuers, 260 films for cooperation. For both products, I think Guevara is going to rely on closed-loop user information to control, with multi-dimensional data analysis to more accurately predict user behavior and preferences, in addition it is difficult to think of other possibilities. Set a very common concept, it is undoubtedly "big data applications." In short, if these two products can really achieve the goal and promote open, it may really be born in the movie industry, a Taobao monster.
With the relative size and vertical expansion, the horizontal expansion targeting multi-classification is less urgent. Originally Well, like to watch movies, like to watch shows, like sports between these types of people did not have a clear intersection, is nothing more than belong to the entertainment project was Guevara regarded as part of the "city entertainment Internet" Therefore, the multi-service line attempt really needs to be done. The experience in the movie industry may not be able to deliver much usefulness. In other words, it is not so easy to create a similar closed loop. And the performance market relative to the film, the maturity is far worse, of course, do not need to hurry to reach a goal. Seen in this light, Guevara and barley, the two nova in the short term can not see.
All in all, Guevara's film business is the foundation of its business model, while "data warehouse" can also support Guevara to be a big dream, but all of this premise is to accelerate the scale. As for the extension of other categories, take it easy.
Guevara's enemies: maybe only themselves
This sentence is vulgar, but after I talked with some people who have concerns about O2O and Guevara, everyone came to a conclusion similar to that.
Guevara competitors or some potential competitors, but Guevara and not much direct competitive pressure. Spider web business is closer to the climate has not yet reached a climate of barley net is not the same line walking; watercress did not want to get involved, involved in the ticketing time network did not mean bigger; as Taobao local, it seems Nothing special concern. My theory has always been that most O2O projects do not have to be too afraid of BAT as long as the business model is established. Just as the original foreign version came to China and hit him, it never won. The BAT team also oversees the franchise project team in this area. To BAT this size, want to touch O2O, the investment approach is more likely to work hard to fight is unlikely. The main reason is can not wait, despise, can not afford to hurt.
From Guevara's own point of view, the business model does not have any major deficiencies and deficiencies, but there are many other advantages of O2O. The team also seems very reliable, so now the size of only about 200 people. Share advantage is relatively large, it is no wonder Liu Yong will feel more than concerned about the competition, it is better to use their energy to make themselves and the user more "base" some. However, I think we should mention some potential threats and areas for improvement.
First, the size of the bottleneck where?
Only figures show that there were 17 billion movie box-office sales nationwide last year, and that the rate of 30% growth can be achieved. Such consumers are concentrated in large cities, the degree of networking is generally high. According to Liu Yong said the expected 70% of the box office to network channels, this possibility is not to say low bar. From the past experience, in general, every boss in the field of Internet segments can take up at least 50% of the market (although Guevara has 70% market share, but this is limited to online seat selection, not with Buy and other online channels, the total share). According to this algorithm ... wow, it just made! But can really go so smoothly? In Guevara's current situation, although covering major cities and won the majority of the country's online ticketing market is only a matter of time. However, in the end what is the potential of this market? From Shanghai, the best market Guevara cultivated, even if Guevara himself had to admit that its user growth has slowed. It is unclear when Guevara will hit this bottleneck.
Second, on the ticket machine
The unreasonable arrangement of offline facilities for online businesses has always been a matter of constant debate. Its core is still cost considerations. However, Guevara in this respect nothing really demanding, we do not say that large-scale deployment of cloth to reduce the purchase price, as well as the user after the surge of logistics costs saved. Even if he treats him as a large billboard that attracts a lot of attention, it will pay him back the same year. Although there is no evidence, but I have always suspected that the ticket machine Guevara is the largest source of brand influence, after all, catch the eye too. The fact that the ticket machine is not a threat is raised here just to say whether it is possible to make this device a more useful tool for Guevara from a simple teller machine and to further improve its utilization rate .
Third, the expansion of outbreak management issues
On the said BAT can not afford to hurt, you can explain here. Most of the O2O projects need to be crowded with people as they expand and involve many cross-city management issues. Indeed, the O2O project is not suitable for BAT operation. But this point, for small teams, there is a strong lethality. There are too many O2O projects because of blind blind expansion strategy, but managerial ability but can not keep going and crashed into the sand. And this is a bit more afflicted with disease and is often particularly prone to projects that take a lot of money in Round B, are held in the media by the media, and take special care. The typical example is 24 vouchers. If the management team attempts to cover up some of the problems that have occurred through the rapid expansion, or ignore some of the hidden dangers that have emerged, it is generally learned. If you want to say who Guevara is the real enemy? I think it is Guevara himself.
The author is the former head of marketing for some O2O website. Now he is willing to make more exchanges with the brothers and sisters in the internet circle and investment circle (especially in Shanghai). Sina microblogging: @ Black flame cross.
Original link: http://www.huxiu.com/article/22997/1.html
【Editor's Choice】
How much Big Data Scientists Need Us? Big Data's Big Data Big Data: Big Challenges to the Internet What is the Big Data Age of Thinking? 【Editor: Wang Chengcheng TEL: (010) 68476606】