On the waveform theory of mobile games

Zhong Lin is the Beijing Hui Yue Tiancheng Wuxi Han Feng game CEO, previously in Guangzhou netease game, Fuzhou Octopus game platform, Shenzhen Guangyu game development, Shenzhen Bao Tak Group games Cloud Division work, accumulated a number of game development experience. This year he visited a lot of smartphone application developers, but in the attitude of cooperation with the online games, the mobile games in the end is what? He will cause users what effect? Everyone is still skeptical.

Online games are part of the transformation, the the change in the time axis due to the different types of presentation of different waveforms. is different from advertising sales.

Advertising purchasing power depends on the market for other applications of capital, we know just the domestic Android market, this is a very dangerous warning, go to finance, burning money, refinancing, and then burning the money model, in fact, the future risk will be more and more big.

The purchasing power of online games depends on the purchasing power of users, which is closely related to the market's new user speed, user's stock, game user's proportion and user's income level, but it has nothing to do with capital.

On the other side, the net-changing force of the online game more comes from the product's own quality.

Therefore, the two faces are different and have strong complementarity.

and the classification of online games, I used to be divided into "short-term online games" and "Long Tail online games" two kinds.

We take the income as the Y axis, the time as the X axis, can see the advertisement, the short-term net swims and the long tail swims the difference.

Advertising: Revenue is a point in a time period.

Short-term online games: In fact, short-term online games more similar to the charge of a stand-alone game, income rise quickly, decline is also fast, but low income will last a few months time.

Long tail online games: Pay attention to the user's adherence to the game, the income began slowly, but the decline is also very slow. And advertising is different, the game extended the user's life, especially the long tail online games, it is possible to prolong the service life of the user for 10 years (for example: NetEase's "Dream West Tour", the "Fantasy Three Kingdoms", "The Three Kingdoms"), the service life brings is "accumulation", the original user one-time consumption, Become a number of times, long-term behavior.

The following is the overall revenue model:

Online gaming is not affected by the market environment, depending on the user and online product quality.

"Washing user system" for short-term online games

Short-term online games have a long history, but in the PC page to shine, because it is very much in line with the rapid changes in the Internet model.

Haijian once said he wanted to do a big game of intermodal, but are listed companies refused, listed companies are only willing to buy ads, selling the way of advertising is to sell the blood of the kidney to sell the user to the game company, and the red blood of the three ways is, on the spot, do not sell users, take the divided way. (The original "Shanhu: End of the tour compared to the weakness of the page is insufficient to launch")

The chart above shows that the overall income of the short-term online games is coming fast and going fast, so the product design is in the peak.

This is also the reason that the PC page swims to take more, the more fast the suit opens, the more the wave crest stacks, the higher the income.

But this is based on high advertising spending on the basis of the page tour advertising expenditure is no less than the end of the tour, the initial income is not lower than the end of the tour, but half a year later, the income may be only 1/2 of the end, a year later, only 1/4 or directly stop operation.

Rapid change is the characteristics of short-term online games.

The user purchasing power cycle extends, the user obtains the cost to raise, the product development cost enhances, is the short-term net swims in the end swims, the page swims, the hand swims the market encounters the crisis, moreover this crisis is irreversible.

The likelihood of the future is that as costs increase, user consumption more rational, Tencent, 360, Baidu and other successful users of the community planning of the game platform will be more and more large, and the extreme purchase of the current type of biased Internet platform will Weishing clothing, money to cultivate a mature online users, eventually lost to the above community-type platform.

"Ladder-type growth mode" for long tail online games

The long tail net swims is the operation mode of the end swims, not the Internet fast realizable mode.

In the "Fantasy Three Kingdoms" into the bubble community, a full year time community day active 80,000, into the six months after the community day activity reached 400,000, the discussion of the "three fantasy" related to various raiders, plots, feelings of the story of the occupation of the community, users are happy.

And NetEase's "Dream West Tour" similar, "Fantasy Three Kingdoms" also has 10 years of planning, the current mobile games has been operating 3.5, half a year to achieve 10 million months of income, has lasted 3 years, October 2012 income is 15 million yuan.

3 years of "Fantasy Three Kingdoms" has never been a uniform, Forgame Group chairman Mr. Wangdong to visit Fai Yue Tiancheng, I personally will work backstage open, query "fantasy Three Kingdoms" "Chibi" this server July 1, 2010 and July 1, 2012 data, income is 8000 yuan.

Old-style income is unchanged for several years, each new service income increases by a section, which means "ladder-type growth"

The "Chibi" server has not been getting decent new users for nearly 2 years.

So long tail online games to consider "How to let users play 10" this topic.

Relatively simple, we operate the design of 800 a year a completely different activities, corresponding to different types of channels at different times of different stages of the game, for recharge, consumption, online and other values adjusted.

Half of our company is a full-time customer service, specialized development corresponding to all models of customer service processing backstage, each day must deal with 1000-1500 complaints information.

This and "Tencent mode" is the same, the first to retain people, and then think about income.

The performance of our current trial seafood "low-end version of Android Fantasy" in the past few months:

Low-end version of the revenue curve and user conversion rate let me "fantasy Three Kingdoms" this product full of confidence, with the December full 3D modeling of the "3D version of Fantasy three" (ANDROID+IOS+HTML5+JAVA+MTK) launched, "Fantasy three" This product is the most likely to accumulate up to 100 million months ' income in a hand tour, the reason is very simple, the current hand tour market relative to the PC page tour is too small, purchasing power is very low, and the models carved up the basic market, forming an independent market area, brush the crest of the way will soon brush wear this market, brush less than billion to enter the decay period, Can only rely on the heap, in our single product heap 3.5 Total 47 million users, monthly income of 15 million on the basis of accumulation and then steadily embark on!

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