The automotive industry represented the American ideal most of the 20th century

According to a recent article by Steven Sinofsky, director of Microsoft's Windows division and board member of Andreessen Horowitz, auto shows a trend toward automation in which the technology blog Re / Is accelerating change. The paper analyzes the separation of vehicle functions, energy, vehicle sharing modes and unmanned technology trends.

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The automotive industry represented the American ideal most of the 20th century. "Big Three" means millions of employees, and leaders at car companies define modern management, from Alfred Sloan to Whiz Kids. Cars and cultures are interwoven, and suburban lifestyles, from shop districts to multi-purpose wagons, are sprung up by cars.

The current changes in the automotive industry are striking. The rule of thumb for change is that you can not predict its occurrence, and if you are a veteran company, you hear the word "change" from time to time.

There are many signs that the social and technological foundation for the reform of the auto industry has been shaped.

The recent debut of Google's new driverless car at the Code Conference offers the opportunity to think about all the signs of change that have taken place in the meantime while also allowing one to anticipate the subversive changes in the industry and future traffic trips. I found several signs pointing to major changes in cars and transportation.

Car functional separation

Innovation in the automotive electronics industry is shifting from hardware to software and from automakers to innovative companies that use the mobile platform to create convenient transportation capabilities. For example, crowdsourcing data on roads and traffic conditions on cellphone maps have brought great convenience to people; car entertainment has also been separated and ubiquitous tablet PCs are now the main entertainment tools in the backseat. Delivered on modern mobile platforms, past features based on in-car devices or peripherals have become better, more flexible, and less expensive.

There are two transformative elements of this sign. First of all, this is an economic challenge for car companies that devote significant resources to developing business and sales strategies based on the automotive "electronic components."

On the other hand, from a consumer perspective, traffic familiarity and personalization come from their mobile devices, not the car itself, which greatly enhances the seamless transition of the car. LocalMotion breaks down even the most basic car functions of starting a car, even by opening the door with radio frequency identification (RFID) or other means. In addition, a variety of features that were originally car-specific are all provided by mobile devices, from GPS locations to maintenance reminders.

energy

Nearly half of the U.S. oil consumption comes from private cars. No matter how fast we find new ways to extract oil, we will eventually run out of that energy. In the United States, there have been only two sales dips in high-energy-consumption vehicles (in the 1970s and 2006-2008 respectively). Recently, we found sales of SUVs and trucks showing a recovery. Ironically, the competitive advantage that American car makers possess and the high profits they generate from trucks and SUVs will only further increase their chances of being subversive, making them less interested in alternative fuels.

Today's software technology goes far beyond just the incremental design, manufacturing and distribution of alternative energy vehicles. Tesla has become a symbol of rethinking how to build and drive a car. Detroit's reaction is not surprising. Recently, the former chairman of General Motors Bob Lutz interviewed still talking about the mileage of new energy vehicles and battery security risks. You can largely deny any potentially alternative energy, but doing so without actively looking for viable alternative energy means that you are likely to face subversion.

Car sharing mode

Having a car can get a headache. Ironically, cars are far less of a headache in terms of reliability and durability. Modern cars, especially those produced in Japan and Germany, are of very good quality and run thousands of miles in high quality.

However, problems with insurance, fuel costs, parking fees and so on have made car ownership distressing, albeit a symbol of social status and convenience.

Considering that urbanization deteriorates traffic conditions, you can not even drive around with it even if you have a car. Given this, it is no surprise that people have a huge change in the attitude of owning a car. Having a car is no longer something that people are hungry for, and young Americans are getting a driver's license later than usual. From ZipCars to Cars2Go, to Uber and Lyft, communal and carpooling models give people greater convenience and make travel more economical.

The separation of car features such as car keys, personalized maps and entertainment features means that you can look at the map to determine the car's location and get on the car with a single click. You can also call a car with the same convenient GPS location. You can see the sharing of cars to share the use of technology to keep the car without using idle, reducing the number of vehicles on the road.

Needless to say, fewer cars will have a huge impact on the automotive industry. The emergence of subversive power means that things tend to thrive. As a result, the recent upturn in car sales will be the last major buying cycle until deferment of driver's license, use of car or carpool services, and travel by mobile map becomes the leader in businesses and groups that determine how to allocate traffic resources.

Unmanned technology trends

When Google's new driverless car unveiled, aroused a burst of excitement. Although such cars may take another 15 years or more to enter the market, it is bound to arrive.

We will see some gradual developments ahead of the unmanned car influx into the road - driver assistance technologies commonly found in existing cars. The groundwork that Google and others have done with maps, sensors, control systems and more has spawned innovative products such as Subaru Eyesight and Mercedes Intelligent Drive - the precursor to full automation.

With sophisticated automation technology, idealized traffic scenarios are expected to come true - use any nearby idle when you need to be summoned from a mobile device, or it can even predict your trip based on your schedule demand.

Some people may contribute their own cars as a shared resource, thereby reducing the cost of vehicles. Businesses will provide shared cars, and the government may build a car network based on current urban bicycle systems. The car sharing model can also benefit greatly from automated driving techniques and you have the choice of being the owner of the car at your disposal without having to squeeze a car with anyone or worrying about the driver's skills as before.

After your identity is automatically verified by the car, you can board the car. Traffic will get smoother, not only because more cars are fully utilized, they are able to take advantage of predictive techniques and algorithms, and because cars become safer, after all, autonomous vehicles will not be as foreign as drivers, Personal emotions and other factors distracted, it will not be unresponsive.

Think again

It may take a long time before we can usher in the next peak of technology - a technological peak driven by shared transportation, driverless cars, social infrastructure and lifestyles. But change is coming.

Veteran companies will act on the basis of short-term interests, and gradually improve our transport. This is not a bad idea, but this is a realistic consideration. Cars will add more advanced safety tools and cities will use sensors and surveillance systems to provide more information on traffic jams.

Traditional companies may also resist technological change. We will see that their top executives talk about milestones that can replace energy vehicles. We will see opponents of shared assets continuing to talk about the risks of public safety. We will see existing vested interests objection to infrastructure changes and Put in.

This is part of social change. In the process of technological evolution, there will always be such a situation. And all the technical innovations may have in common is that the real definition of a product is often a new company that is not bound by the rules and regulations.

Cars have not appeared in the early 20th century. Given the speed with which Moore's Law has led to technological change, it is no surprise that the world has suddenly become totally different. The automobileization process in the United States was completed at once, and its version 2.0 might even be completed sooner.

Think about how these exact changes really affect public transport, roads, airplanes, trains, etc., as you think about the changes in your car and your local taxi service.

That is change - it seems to have progressed very slowly when it happened. Then, in a flash, everything is different. (Hao Hui)