The end of the half-year bank deposit recovered lost ground

Over the past year, "baby", classified as Internet finance, came out of the limelight, making traditional banks "dwarfed." Even though the "babies" are still at a relatively large gap with bank deposits, the sound of bad-smelling banks will always direct the loss of bank deposits directly to Internet finance to "steal money."

But now the bank seems proud and proud. From the end of six months to look at the data, the situation of the country is the foreign currency deposits of 117.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1%. From the data released by some provinces and cities in Shanghai, for example, the first half of the deposit balance of 7426.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3%; to Henan Province, for example, the deposit balance of 42383.1 billion yuan in the first half, an increase of 15.8 %.

Coincidentally, the "baby" rate of decline in recent years plummeted, the annual income "broken 5" has become the norm, and some even close to 4%. So there are some ideas come to the fore, saying bank deposits are back because "baby" have fallen.

Is logic really simple?

"Baby" in the end down did not fall? From the data, the answer is that they are still growing, but the growth rate slowed down. The size of the Monetary Fund has been growing this year, even in the second quarter, when yields fell. As of the end of June, its total size has been broken 1.5 trillion yuan. It is no wonder that during a recent interview with the reporter of the "First Financial Daily," a senior official at the central bank's Hangzhou Sub-branch claimed that Internet finance "wore the golden running shoes like Liu Xiang and ran faster than ours."

It seems that the return of bank deposits and the "baby" nothing to do. On the contrary, or because of the savers' investment in "Po" products, they really make the data in the bank's "savings" category show a significant decline. From the more active market data of investment currency funds, the city's bank savings deposits increased by only 114.81 billion yuan in the first half, a decrease of 19.67 billion yuan over the same period of last year.

Well, half-year bank deposit recovered lost ground, in the end what is the reason?

Speaking from the inside, first of all, from the amount of open market operations of the central bank, the second quarter was significantly more relaxed than the first quarter. Compared with a net return of more than 500 billion in the first quarter, net proceeds were realized in 4,5,6 and 3 months respectively, reaching a net total of 369 billion in the second quarter.

Second, "targeted RRRs will have the effect of revitalizing the stock and docking loans will result in corporate deposits." The loan-to-deposit ratio adjustment may not have enough impact on the data at the end of June, but it will also drive a certain level of credit now and in the future Expansion, through a derivative mechanism to increase the amount of deposits of the whole society, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank macroeconomic analyst Cao Yang yesterday in the "First Financial Daily" interview with reporters said so.

From the point of view of derivative deposits, loans in the first half of this year increased by RMB414.6 billion yuan over the same period of last year. In June alone, new loans reached nearly 1.08 trillion yuan.

Directional RRR and loan-to-deposit ratio adjustment is called "technical adjustment". The original intention of this structural relaxation is a kind of "micro stimulus" that releases liquidity into the real economy. Chongming Minsheng Financial Research Institute researcher Dong Ximiao told this reporter that the central bank twice in the second quarter of intensive targeted RRR to the market release 250 billion to 300 billion yuan of liquidity.

From the Shanghai unit deposit data point of view, the second quarter is indeed better than the first quarter. In the first half of this year, new deposits in local currency and foreign currency in Shanghai amounted to 255.55 billion yuan, of which new deposits in local and foreign currencies in the second quarter increased by 3.4 times as much as 1978.9 billion yuan.

What really helped the bank's data at the end of June may be the operation of bank impulse. Analysts at a bank's asset-liability department said the impulse at the end of quarter and half-year was an important reason. According to the data from Shanghai, RMB deposits in the city increased by 482.28 billion yuan in March and June, while the new RMB deposits in the first half of the year were only 447.4 billion yuan. In January and April, RMB deposits decreased by 138.14 billion yuan.

In addition, there is a "magic weapon" that will enable banks to make better deposit data towards the end of June: a lot of bank wealth management products such as interbank deposits will expire at the end of June, and the funds of expired products will often be automatically charged to customers' current deposits. The interbank deposits themselves are not counted as general deposits, but through this "magic weapon," these data are "recorded."