The flood of dollars spawned currency crisis asset bubbles test macro-control

-Our correspondent Ningxiaodin ice the financial crisis was not dead. The monetary crisis was initially marked by the weakening of economic growth and the high unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve suspended the natural recovery of quantitative easing monetary policy tools on August 10, and released a clear signal of continued expansion of liquidity in September.　　It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will soon unveil a new round of asset-purchase plans in November to spur a weak economic recovery. Analysts say the massive us "quantitative easing" of monetary policy will undoubtedly keep the dollar down, bringing a major blow to global financial markets. At present, all non-US currencies have appreciated against the dollar, and some developed economies have openly intervened in the appreciation of their currencies. The BoJ, for example, has offered 0 interest-rate policies, and countries such as South Korea, Brazil, Thailand and Singapore are brewing or taking market action to influence their currencies. Some developed countries have taken the opportunity to accuse emerging economies such as China of undervaluing their currencies ...　　There are many indications that the Pandora's box, "currency war", could be opened. While the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and the G20 summit in November have been interested in co-ordinating financial policy, a new round of quantitative easing in the US ready that monetary policy in countries such as Europe and Japan will follow suit. As a result, some major currencies may fluctuate dramatically, with asset bubbles likely to emerge in commodity markets and emerging markets.　　At the same time, countries with excessive currency appreciation intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to maintain export competitiveness, and the possibility that individual emerging market countries impose severe capital controls to effectively limit capital inflows is increasing. Dominique, president of the International Monetary Fund, recently said that the current world economic development uncertainty, still need countries to coordinate cooperation.　　If countries only think of their own interests, it will be detrimental to the global economy.　　The asset bubble is wary of hot money inflation regardless of whether the exchange rate frictions between countries escalate, asset price bubbles will become the inevitable consequence of this devaluation competition. The Fed's expected strengthening of a new round of quantitative easing, with a flood of capital wenfengerdong into equities, bonds and commodities, has not only pushed up the index but also pushed up commodity prices and bond prices. In the international commodity market, September cotton, soybeans, industrial metals, precious metals, energy rose 20.5%, 14.3%, 9.8%, 9% and 7.9% respectively.　　The gold price soared 23.5 dollars on the day of Japan's October 5 announcement of QE alone. Inflation-related asset prices are rising, making our country's input inflationary pressures rise. Since August, the purchase price index has reversed a sharp downward trend in the previous two months, up 10.1% per cent, and in September it climbed again to a high of 65.3, linked to an increase in international commodity price shocks.　　Market participants have warned that the increasing uncertainty of imported inflation has increased the difficulty of managing inflation expectations in China. In addition, the currency war has aroused interest in hot money. With interest rates close to 0 in major Western countries, cross-border profit-driven capital flows are bound to return to investmentFor the higher emerging economies. Standard Chartered Hong Kong reported 6th that Asia will face a new round of capital inflows and increased risk of asset price increases.　　Guan Jiaming, the bank's chief economist for Asia, said the flow of capital inflows was only just beginning, with more market volatility in the future and higher currency and asset prices. According to the latest data from the central bank, the balance of foreign exchange accounts for China's financial institutions was 21.037 trillion yuan by the end of August, adding 243 billion yuan to the end of July. This is the last 4 months of China's monthly new foreign exchange accounted for the first breakthrough of 200 billion yuan. Industry insiders generally believe that after May, June adjustment, the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to rebound, hot money is moving from "outflow" to "inflow."　　Zhang Ming, deputy director of the international Financial Room of the Institute of Social Sciences, said that the turning point of hot money flows had emerged. Weigh a variety of factors and respond positively to the challenge Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in Washington that China will not let the renminbi appreciate quickly.　　Yuan appreciation will be gradual, China's currency reform will follow its own pace. Combing the process of market evolution, we can see that the real bane of the current global monetary system is the US monetary policy. In the US, the need to pass on economic hardship accuses the country's currency, including China, of pegging to the dollar and demanding a stronger renminbi. At the same time trying to increase export competitiveness through a weaker dollar and reduce the real value of huge debt.　　But in fact, the need to revalue the renminbi is uncertain about the effectiveness of America's own problems. A sharp appreciation of the renminbi in the short term will have a huge impact on China's economy. "Managing exchange rate policy is a complex art that needs to be weighed against a variety of factors such as domestic inflation, unemployment, economic growth and balance of payments," Mr Zhou said. "In terms of interest rate policy, expectations of a recent hike in the market are weakening, given the increasing uncertainty surrounding the recovery and the same tone of maintaining quantitative easing in the US and Japan."　　Several agencies expect the 2010 inflation trend to continue until the end of the three quarter, with CPI expected to fall gradually in the fourth quarter. The international financial crisis has not yet vanished, a new currency crisis struck. The recent depreciation of the dollar, multinational intervention in local currency exchange rate triggered a global exchange rate debate.　　Analysts say the sharp swings in currencies could spark a trade war and create worries about asset bubbles in emerging markets. Chinese authorities have made clear that China's currency reform will move at its own pace and will not allow the renminbi to appreciate quickly. There will be a cautious assessment of whether or not to continue with the stimulus, and the current number of tools is still effective in controlling inflation expectations. Countries should speed up cooperation on reform of the IMF share and strengthen the voice of emerging economies in the world economic system.