The importance of wearable equipment and the problems faced

Absrtact: At Apple's press conference last fall, Tim Cook called Apple Watch a new chapter in Apple's history, placing it on the same level as the Mac, iphone and ipod. I know a lot of people disagree with this, but I think they just don't see consumers

At Apple's launch last fall, Tim Cook called Apple Watch the "new chapter" of Apple's history, placing it on the same level as the Mac, iphone and ipod. I know a lot of people disagree with this, but I think they just don't see consumer demand for wearable equipment.

Historically, when a groundbreaking product came out, we always heard a variety of critical voices. In 1943, for example, IBM CEO Thomas Watson said: "The global market for computers may require only 5 units." "There is another example closer to us," said Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's former CEO, after the iphone was released, insisting: "The iphone is unlikely to gain much market share." ”

The mistake of such criticism is that they are judged only by the circumstances at the time, without seeing the new product and the future of our environment. Take Watson, for example, the 1943 "Computer" is a full house so big, really not attractive. The good news is that Watson, the CEO of IBM, became aware of the mistakes he had predicted and led the development of computers. And Ballmer is not so lucky, the iphone development has been a great success, and Microsoft in this wave of smartphones seems to be half a shot. But when we put Ballmer's judgment in the background, we found that he was right: the first iphone cost 600 dollars, only 2G network, no app, no basic corporate support. If the iphone stays that way, Ballmer's 2% to 3% forecast for iphone market share is optimistic.

However, the development of the iphone itself has not stalled and its environment is not static. The iphone's large volume of consumption has boosted telecoms operators ' investments in 3G and LTE networks, which in turn are helping the iphone. The iphone has also benefited from Apple's app ecosystem, built by the App Store.

So to assess how much Apple Watch can achieve, we have to step back and see what the world is like today and how the future world might evolve.

How the world will develop

Modern technology has brought great changes to our lives, but there are many traditional objects in our daily life that have not changed in a long time. For example, the key is one of them, the pieces of metal placed in the bag not only open the door of my house, but also start the car; Money is an example of this, but it's a little bit more than a key, and we've been using cash for a long time to settle, and now we have credit cards. But giving someone a certain amount of authority to take away some of my money (that is, to swipe a credit card) seems odd. In addition, we need to switch to control the lights, the need for paper tickets to fly or into the concert hall, but also a lot of things to the government or work units to prove our identity.

In the near future, these things are likely to be electronic, and our environment is being radically changed by software. The software will be able to ensure that a lock is open only for me, allowing me to take full control of my own money, allowing me to easily authenticate myself to the software, whether at home, in the theater or in the organization.

The importance of wearable equipment

In order to fully implement the functions described above, we need to validate ourselves in some way. Smart phones are a good choice, but it's not perfect because you have to repeatedly take it out of your pocket or bag and put it back, which is very inconvenient.

Wearable equipment is different, especially if the equipment is worn on the wrist. It is easy for us to raise our hands. In this way, we would prefer to interact with the "smart hardware" around us. Therefore, I think that in the present, wearable devices and the internet of things become the hottest new technology is not accidental phenomenon, they are closely related and complementary.

From ideal to reality

Imagine the world I've just described, where smart hardware is everywhere, and we can interact with it with the right wearable device. Wouldn't this be a better world? Isn't this more reliable than the traditional approach we've been using for centuries?

The problem is that achieving such a bright future requires a wide distribution of wearable devices and smart hardware, both are indispensable, but there is a "chicken egg, Egg chicken" problem: Smart hardware can now interact with smartphones, but with the development of time, due to the use of inconvenience caused by the contradictions will become more and more prominent On the other hand, the use of wearable equipment is still relatively limited.

One of the solutions to this conundrum is the introduction of all relevant products by a company. Millet is now pushing for such a strategy (although it is still based on smartphones), and Samsung is also exerting its force on smartphones and wearable devices, hoping to achieve such a goal.

Problems facing wearable equipment

However, Samsung and many other manufacturers also face the paradox that wearable equipment and smart hardware need to work together to maximize the effectiveness, but consumers only if the availability of wearable equipment is high enough to be willing to buy and wear. So the biggest problem that wearable equipment faces now is how to keep the consumer on the device.

Cook gave a way to solve the problem. At Apple's spring launch, Cook told Apple Watch:

Apple Watch is the most personalized product we have created. You don't just "take" it, it's "wear" it. The things you wear show who you are, so we designed the Apple Watch to meet the different tastes and preferences of all the people. But we always look at what you want from Apple and use very beautiful materials.

We were surprised to find that Apple began to focus on "fashion". In fact, this strategy is very practical, so that people would like to wear this product on the body. If it is a tool, people's expectations of "function" tend to be greater than "form", but for wearing ornaments, if not good-looking appearance, again powerful function is useless. So for Apple Watch, it's the look that needs to be designed.

This is where many critics don't see Apple's strategy. After the launch last autumn, I compared the introduction of Apple Watch with the introduction of the ipod, the iphone and the ipad, and I found that Apple did not stress much about the functionality of the watch Apple. Now I can almost be sure that Apple is doing this intentionally, and that the main concern in keynote is the appearance of the product. I'm a bit geek, so I'll ignore the appearance, but for the average consumer, they're certainly not going to ignore that.

In fact, at last year's press conference, Cook made it clear:

Apple watch is used for wearing. It can be worn on any occasion. It is a personalized technology products, embodies the personal style and taste. It combines material with software and technology. We not only focus on the function of the product, but also attach great importance to its appearance.

The biggest problem with most wearable devices is that people don't want to wear them, and Apple solves the problem first. But many in the industry just think of it as a marriage to the fashion world. In fact, such products can only be done if they want to succeed, and there is no other way.

Besides Apple, it is hard to imagine which company can achieve such a level of attractiveness because it is not only a matter of design standards, but also a matter of production, and Apple is no match for the supply chain and retailing. The experience of trying to wear a watch at an Apple retail store is hard for other manufacturers to see.

Build the ecosystem step by step

Apple Watch a solution to the problem of unwilling to wear the equipment at Apple's debut, and at this year's press conference, it shows more clearly the practicality of the wearable device, especially the convenience of using it in real-world scenarios. From the scene of the demo we can see Siri, Apple Pay, Uber, with flight two-dimensional code passbook, open SPG hotel door and other functions. These use scenarios confirm what I said at the beginning of this article: allow the wearer to interact with the environment in an unprecedented way.

It is particularly noteworthy that the performance of the live demo display is implemented through Third-party applications. Apple's reliance on other companies to build or deliver the smart hardware available to Apple's watch is also an advantage of the company's huge user base, since Apple can sell millions of Apple Watch, no matter what. And a millions of user base is enough to drive an ecosystem of things to be built for wearable devices.

Of course, interacting with smart hardware is not the only feature of wearable devices (but at least I think this is the most important role for Apple Watch). The wrist is also the ideal location for viewing notifications and realizing "light interaction", and we don't have to take out smartphones again and again. The advantages of this will be to create a good reputation of the user, and thereby promote the success of Apple Watch, because Apple Watch is a brand new product line (in the previous Apple's products, the biggest word of mouth, the most close to Apple Watch is the ipad, Because it is also a groundbreaking product.

Only Apple can do it.

I think Apple Watch is likely to be more successful than people expected, a product that only Apple can produce: only Apple can design products that are so exciting for consumers; only Apple's production line can reach this size , only Apple's retail operating system can make people more satisfied to try to wear and choose the right products. Most importantly, only Apple has enough user base to create an ecosystem that will make Apple Watch its full role.

Of course, we have to admit that Apple watch is a product that still needs to be improved. I've found that many of the UI designs are confusing, and Apple Watch must also be bound to the iphone, which limits its scenario. In addition, Apple will need time to develop an intelligent hardware system that watch with Apple, and to address the drawbacks of needing a day to recharge.

I believe that these problems will be solved in the near future (if not solved, Apple Watch is not a very successful product). Until then, the primary purpose of Apple watch was only to view notifications. Ultimately, Apple Watch is the best way to get people to interact with a variety of things anytime, anywhere.