The increase in circulation and the expectation of higher interest rates

The central bank increased its 1-year Guoju in this week's open market operation, and the market is once again keen to anticipate a possible rise in the 1-year interest rate.　　Analysts say this once again shows the central bank's intention to further increase public market operations to return liquidity to the banking system. The central bank will issue a 60 billion yuan 1-year vote in today's routine open market operation, which will increase significantly by 43 billion yuan last week. This is also the largest single week circulation since the 1-year central vote has been in place since late October last year.　　Speculation that the 1-year central vote rate could rise has warmed again. Before the Spring Festival 1-year central vote issued interest rate has been raised two times, and the first week after the Spring Festival open market operation did not rise as the market expected. Last week's 1-year central vote rate was 1.9264%, and has been stable for 5 consecutive weeks. But expectations of a continued rise in interest rates on the 1-year issue are still strong, making market demand difficult to increase. Before the 1-year circulation has been maintained at 10 billion ~200 billion, the central bank can not take the initiative to increase the 1-year circulation of votes, to play its role in the withdrawal of funds.　　So the sudden expansion of the 1-year circulation could mean that the central bank may again raise the 1-year issue rate. Some analysts pointed out that the current interbank market funds are abundant, this week and next week, the maturity of funds reached 140 billion yuan and 271 billion yuan respectively, the central bank needs to increase public market operations to achieve the net withdrawal of funds operation.　　and to expand the 1-year circulation, it will need to continue to raise the rate of the central vote to increase market demand, the increase in time may be this week or next week.　　But CICC believes that because of the recent economic data that has eased current market inflation expectations, the interest rate hike may not be too big to exceed the deposit rate, and its impact on the market is relatively limited. After the bond market has warmed up, the 1-year central vote two-level market interest rates are also falling. The yield curve shows that yesterday's 1-year central vote two-level market interest rate in 1.95%, has fallen back to the last week, 5 more basis, the one or two-tier upside down range of the market is greatly reduced.