The overall downturn in the global economy

The rise in oil prices has curbed some of China's industry recovery "signs" 40 U.S. dollars, 50 U.S. dollars, 60 U.S. dollars, 70 U.S. dollars ...　　In the first half of 2009, the global economy faltered on the road to stability, and international crude oil prices, the lifeblood of the economy, were on the upside. On the last day of the first half of 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) raised the domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 600 yuan per ton respectively. This is the third time in the first half of the increase in oil prices.　　The frequency and magnitude of domestic oil price rise has become the focus of people's concern and controversy. What are the reasons behind the overall economic downturn and the higher oil prices? What is the impact on China's economy that is stabilising?　　Where is the way to deal with it?　　Soaring oil prices are a departure from the fundamentals of the global economy. In economic terms, it is the supply-demand relationship that determines price rise and fall, but the trend of international oil prices has never been simpler. At the beginning of this year, international oil prices ushered in a wave of surging market: from 40 dollars to 70 of dollars, a gateway has been constantly broken. "International oil prices jumped wildly in the first half of last year, and speculation was likely to be bigger, and this round of oil prices, whose core can be represented by one word, is ' expected '."　　"Long-term attention to international oil price trends," said Lixiangyang, director of the Asia-Pacific Institute. Overall, the trend of the world economy to continue to slide and worsen seems to have stopped. "But the recovery of the world economy will be slow and easy to repeat, and crude oil prices do not have a substantial underlying economic fundamentals."　　"In this case, the increase in oil demand in the future is more seasonal than fundamental," said Dr Peng Junming, the People's Bank's former investment strategist in New York. The fluctuation of crude oil price in international market is more and more affecting the nerves of our economy after the influence of high oil price on China's textile industry is obviously implemented.　　China's economy is in a key period of steady recovery, the international oil price contrarian rise what will be the impact? June 30, the increase in the price of refined oil, to some extent, eased the operating pressure of refinery enterprises.　　But around the entire petrochemical industry chain, the production and operation of difficult situation in the chemical industry, light industry, textile and other downstream industries generally appear. More than 30% of the growth of the textile industry by export-led, the industry's meager profit margins, only 2% to 5%, the company's own digestion of raw material prices are weaker.　　In April this year, the rise in the price of petrochemical products had forced some textile companies to stop buying. In contrast to the cost pressures brought about by the rise in oil prices in 2008, the greater pressure on our companies today is the global economic downturn and shrinking aggregate demand. "In this context, it is difficult for enterprises to conduct downstream transmission of oil prices caused by the rising cost of pressure, the profit space is further compressed." "Feng, Minister of Industry and Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said. "Confidence in the current market is still very fragile, and if oil prices continue to rise, some sectors that have just shown signs of recovery will suffer more and have a greater negative impact on the overall economic recovery."　　Lixiangyang said. China needs to be bigger in times of oil price upheavalThe "right to speak" side is the rise of international oil prices, while domestic enterprises and industry losses. With the increase of international oil price, this kind of trouble is more and more frequent in our economic and social life. "Drastic changes in international oil prices and high level of operation of the era, how to become passive and active in the international oil market to obtain a greater right to speak, become our country must face and solve an important issue."　　Dadi, former director of the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute. From the international experience, many developed countries ' domestic oil prices and international oil prices direct linkage, but the international market, frequent fluctuations in oil prices, the production and operation of their enterprises have little impact, a key is that they have a series of hedging means, including the participation in oil futures trading. Some experts believe that China can consider establishing its own futures market in China, which is of great significance to improve the right to speak of oil in our country.