The spring and autumn pattern of mobile Internet 5 trend integration of 3G social

The current pattern of China Mobile Internet is as famous as the history of the spring and autumn period, compared with desktop internet, the market pattern is more complex, and even some confusing, but all kinds of players do not want to miss two or three years after the impending outbreak point, have layout.

The mobile Internet, the fifth technology development cycle following mainframes, small machines, personal computers and desktop Internet, is running into this new era, and it also represents the convergence of 5 trends (3G, social, video, internet telephony and ever-changing mobile devices). A recent report by Morgan Stanley, a well-known investment bank, predicts that the mobile internet is growing faster than the desktop Internet and that it will be larger than most people think. The average penetration rate of 3G users worldwide will exceed 20% in 2010, making it the best business inflection point for mobile internet.

But at home, the market is still in the early stages of competition, development trends and market patterns exactly? "Entrepreneurial State" magazine recently interviewed the domestic famous mobile internet experts, Beijing Hundred Point Communication Information Technology Co., Ltd. founder and CEO Xu Maodong, the mobile Internet application services, market patterns and business model for in-depth interpretation. He believes that China Mobile Internet user habits have not yet formed, the user size is not enough, the application has not formed a breakthrough, not to mention qualitative change, China Mobile internet market at least two years to reach the inflection point.

The current pattern of China Mobile Internet is as famous as the history of the spring and autumn period, compared with the desktop Internet, the market pattern is more complex, and even some confusing, but all kinds of players do not want to miss two or three years after the impending outbreak point. "Operators, end-users, traditional internet companies, traditional media and newly born mobile internet companies have become the five forces on the battlefield." Xu Maodong This analysis. The five types of practitioners in the future services for the large-scale investment and exploration, look forward to the next Warring States Period can occupy a place, and even eminence.

Operator Transformation: operation to service

The success of entrepreneurs in mobile-related areas has long depended largely on operator policy. Mobile operators, which have a high voice in the industry chain, are already transforming themselves into mobile internet companies. China Mobile lets people see its efforts, its sheer size and policy mechanisms do not prevent it from identifying the mobile Internet as a new strategic direction, and began a transformation a few years ago.

For mobile operators in developed markets, data-value-added services are increasingly becoming major contributors to revenue. and mobile dream network flow rate is particularly fast, let China Mobile realize that they have to do some layout. As can be seen from the current strategy, terminals and services are the two arms that it captures the mobile internet entrance.

In Japan, where mobile Internet is in the forefront of the world, operators have strong control over the terminal and the mobile Internet. and commissioned by the development of OMS mobile operating system and based on OMS ophone customized mobile phone, revealed that China Mobile also has a similar idea: the use of terminal bundle letter, 139 mailbox applications, enlarge their existing channel advantages. However, in China, where the population is large and the market level is complex, operators can not make custom handsets in the world.

More exciting is the effort of China Mobile in application service. Xu Maodong that a first-rate mobile operator must be a first-class mobile internet company, in other words, a company that provides mobile services. The first attempt by the domestic operator of Apple's App Store model, which was launched last year, was extremely important for the strategic significance of the move to China, where, in addition to mobile and end-user users, handset makers, app developers and individual developers were included. Compared with the mobile dream Network, MM has a more open posture. And China's mobile tentacles also have a broader trend, wireless music, mobile phone reading, games, video, location, E-commerce and other major bases need to pay attention to the relevant field of entrepreneurs. "The advantage of operators is the integration of resources, but the essence is the channel." "Xu Maodong thinks. Although the current product line of China Mobile is still relatively fragmented, but after solving the problem of operating system, platform-level products will be the most likely operator in the future.

The other two operators, China Unicom and the Chinese telecom, have similar strategies, and have launched the Unistore App Store and the sky-wing space respectively this year. While cooperation with Apple has been criticized, China Unicom has started to work harder: operators and handset makers are more co-operative, and end-manufacturers are involved in operator data services, helping operators to increase the share of their data services in overall revenue. "The more open the entire data business, the bigger the cake." "Xu Maodong thinks that Chinese operators are weighing the balance between control and openness, and that for many entrepreneurs, dealing with mobile operators also needs to be handled with discretion." has been in the mobile phone video business has suffered a lot of Shongjia CEO, describing the relationship with the operator is "either away from the far, or hide in the operator under the body", that part of the ambiguous, very likely in the operator turned when the shot accidentally.

Terminal Vendors: Shuffle

At present, mobile phone terminal market is most likely to shuffle, and this is an opportunity for entrepreneurs. Mobile terminal providers, such as Nokia and Apple, are now facing a transition from producers to service providers. In the case of application developers, Nokia phones with a wide range of models and poor system openness have long been a problem for them, and with the rise of the iphone and Android, entrepreneurs have more initiative.

While there is a successful transition from wood processing to the world's largest handset maker, Nokia has been questioned on its way to the mobile internet. Nokia's share price fell to its lowest level since 12, following tough competition from Apple and Google in the smartphone sector. Apple, which released its first iphone product in 2007, has been frantically changing the pattern of the US and the world's mobile phone market in the last three years, thanks to its rich Internet applications. In early June, with the release of IPhone4, Morgan Stanley analyst Keti Huberty Katyhuberty said: "We expect the total number of iphone users will increase from the end of 2009 to 30 million people from the end of 2011 to 100 million people." In the next few years, upgrades will become an important demand driver. ”

While Nokia and some mobile phone providers in China dominate the ever-encroaching low-end/high-capacity handset market, the main battleground and profit source for mobile phones has shifted to smartphones-a development in which Apple and the BlackBerry manufacturer Rim have shown in recent years that, in this market, The key to success is owning an industrial ecosystem (operating system + hardware). In the next few years, Apple is likely to be in the high-end mobile phone market, but the game is not over, because operators, handset manufacturers and software providers to fight Apple's application/industrial ecosystem leadership, especially in the non-English market.

Reporter learned that, in fact, Nokia's mobile internet strategy for a long time, but still can not reverse the market share is gradually eroded situation. Maybe it's a boat disaster. The way Nokia feels about the implementation of the strategy is that, in addition to the top managers, employees don't really understand the implications of this transition. According to Analysys statistics, the current smartphone in the domestic market share of about 10%, although not high, but is the future trend of development. Symbian's operating system, which is inferior to its rivals in both technology and user experience, is also hard to undo as it Meego with Intel. Since 2003, Nokia has launched a series of acquisitions of content developers and service providers, aiming at an all-round extension of the industry chain, including photo-sharing sites Twango, mobile advertising companies Enpocket, digital map providers Navteq, mobile phone software companies Avvenu, But on this basis the launch of the Ovi Store performance disappointing. The same apps are uploaded to different app stores, "There's very few downloads on Ovi," says one mobile app developer. The reasons may include: The user experience of Ovi and Symbian systems; Although the market for Nokia handsets is large, the Ovi store appears late, only on new models, and it is hard for Nokia to control the installation entrance of the application at home, The PC Suite makes it very easy to download Symbian versions of software on the Internet, which is significantly different from the iphone.

"Nokia is actually doing some tweaking to see their involvement in rural markets or tertiary cities," he said. "The process of Nokia being a non-native company is a tough one, given the price sensitivity of this segment of the user and the development of the habit of using mobile internet," said Fangli, a senior analyst at Analysys. Nokia, of course, is still improving, and on the day after its share price fell to the bottom, Nokia's official Chinese blog Posted good news for developers, including allowing individuals to register, facilitate developers ' QT software development kits, and sign up to Symbian software for public testing.

Compared with Nokia, Apple and Google's mobile internet strategy is clear. Unlike Apple's App Store, Androidmarket is completely open to Third-party software, and the Android operating system is free to developers, and Google's ad based back-to-profit model has created the heat of Android, and in the latest statistics on the US mobile market, Android phones are growing faster than the iphone. In the Chinese market, free will undoubtedly play a greater power, Motorola, Sony Ericsson and many other manufacturers have launched their own-brand Android phones. However, behind the rapid expansion, too many versions are likely to haunt developers and users.

And for the Chinese market's authentic iphone, its idea of innovative meaning may be greater than the actual sales significance. Although the cooperation with China Unicom, but the main promotion is the latter in progress, Apple itself does not deserve to mention the action. The company, which leads the global fashion, does not seem to regard China's operations as the focus of global strategic planning. "It's hard to be a mainstream end product in China," he said. "Fangli rather optimistic about Lenovo in this field of performance," Lenovo now start exerting force, cannot say early, at least not too late. "Lenovo is now working with China Unicom to launch a customized Android phone," he said. Xu Maodong said: "Considering the relationship with several major operators, in the domestic market Word-of-mouth, Lenovo has its own unique advantages." "Morgan Stanley's assessment is that the depth of the application industry ecosystem, user experience and pricing will determine to a large extent who is the long-term winner."

The attack of the traditional giants

Whether the mobile Internet is in the same vein as the desktop Internet or a brand-new network with epoch-making significance has always been disputed. Xu Maodong's attitude is clear: "Mobile Internet will bring revolutionary subversion, must be based on the mobile phone this terminal to create content, or to reorder content, it is important for mobile phone end-users to provide their favorite, revolutionary application services." It doesn't make sense to move everything on the internet to mobile phones, which is not the mainstream of mobile internet. "But, to be sure, the question that desktop Internet entrepreneurs need to answer is" what if Tencent, Baidu or Alibaba do the same with you, and mobile internet entrepreneurs cannot bypass them.

Morgan Stanley believes many desktop Internet companies can take advantage of incremental growth because they are the first people to focus on mobile business. Facebook has a great performance on the mobile internet, and even more traffic than Google, which has the potential to be a one-to-one and One-to-many communication platform for mobile Internet. With the popularity of smartphones, mobile devices are becoming more powerful, and Facebook's communication options are growing, and its leadership is likely to be further expanded. Faced with the rapid changes brought about by the development of mobile internet, Morgan Stanley believes that the position of companies such as Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony could be in jeopardy. "There will be more successful companies in mobile internet than Google, which is an opportunity that entrepreneurs should not miss." Desktop Internet companies, such as Facebook, which can take advantage of mobile Internet features, will be stretched smoothly from PCs to mobile phones. "Xu Maodong said.

In the domestic mobile internet market, Tencent may be the most threatening desktop internet giant. As a platform-level company, Tencent has accumulated considerable mobile phone user base and mobile internet base. Music, browsers, communities and other businesses are easier to move to the mobile internet, and Tencent attaches considerable importance to this. "If the desktop Internet is information-centric, and the mobile Internet is more personal, the desktop Internet connects PCs all over the world, and the mobile internet really connects people around the world," he said. In this era people are information. "The desktop Internet emphasizes the richness of content, and the mobile Internet emphasizes the personalization and precision of the content," Xu Maodong said. "He thinks Tencent's biggest competitor is himself, the biggest problem on the mobile internet is how to solve the contradiction between the virtual relationship on QQ and the real relationship between mobile phones, strong ties and weak links."

Unlike the four major players in the global mobile Internet, as noted in the Morgan Stanley report, Xu Maodong also proposed a "Chinese-featured" participant in the domestic mobile internet market: traditional media. "They missed the opportunity to become the most powerful Internet media, unwilling to miss the mobile internet again. "Xu Maodong that, although the domestic traditional media today is not an internet company, not even the real sense of the commercial subject, is a public institution, but as they accelerate restructuring, active participation in the editing rights, brands and systems have obvious advantages." Now the government has asked the traditional media to enter the mobile internet, and has given the exclusive license, editing rights and other related protection. Mainstream content from traditional media is still the main content of mobile media-the only CP.

Opportunities for entrepreneurs: the gorgeous world of mobile apps

When the 3G arrives, it is necessary to find the thinking structure and application mode different from the past. Therefore, for desktop internet companies, Xu Maodong feel that they can not occupy all the territory, in the face of competition, entrepreneurs still have enough imagination space. Those who are born to play wireless mobile internet companies are also a subject that cannot be overlooked in the five types of forces, most of whom have combined free informational content with the entertainment content of fees. "What these companies have in common is that they are born for the age of mobile internet and have a good internet gene that no other camp can compare." Although the existing brand awareness is not high, resources are not rich enough, but do wireless business for many years, very focused on the target user experience has a profound understanding and grasp, there is no history of precipitation, but from the traditional habit of fetters, from scratch more easily produce creative things, management, most of which are also the founder of the company, There is a good incentive mechanism to ensure creativity. "Xu Maodong said. Practice has proved that this part of the company's services are users favorite. Now their biggest challenge is how to practice their internal strength, in the upcoming shuffle process to win. It can be foreseen that the process will be very difficult. China Mobile's Internet may be in the twilight of the dawn, Xu Maodong often told the staff of the two word is "insist", even if not immediately realize the dream, but the perseverance of entrepreneurs is still necessary and meaningful.

In China, many mobile internet users have not contacted the computer, the mobile phone is their initial network experience. Terminal features and the potential needs of the user, the decision to change the mobile internet will take some revolutionary changes. Mobile, portable, privacy, user identification, is the mobile phone and mobile internet can be deeply dug and magnified features. And the business forms on the mobile Internet, it is also the direction that entrepreneurs can choose, and it now looks broadly divided into four categories: mobile social, including community, blog, email, information services, including news, search, advertising, location services, entertainment, including mobile games, music, video, trading, including e-commerce and mobile payments. The combination of each other can outline the general appearance of mobile new business.

As a more personal terminal than a computer, the phone knows almost everything about the user: where, where, and who to contact and what to see. A lot of personal information will leave traces on the phone, the data collected can almost piece together a digital user image. This determines that the mobile Internet social networks, search engines and other applications will be very different from the desktop Internet counterpart services, will be closer to the user, more life: Japan's largest wireless social networking site Mixi's "footprint" function to help the site at the beginning to attract a large number of users, People can use this function to track the activities of other friends; Ning that Khon search offers certainly not a huge amount of information like Google and Baidu, but a personalized service that can reflect the preferences of the user. Foursquare's explosion has given people a glimpse of the enormous energy that geo-information and social-networking collisions can produce, and the new advertising model in which businesses offer discounts based on the number of site visits, and location service applications are the focus of the summer.

And considering the domestic 3G existing technology development level, Xu Maodong forecast, the 3G market first burst out of the killer application should be combined with the location of mobile news services. In the desktop Internet era, newspapers and other paper media "portability" can not be replaced, mobile phones can be easily done. Other advantages of mobile phones include: born three networks in one media, the dissemination of information and personal characteristics of the combination, according to the user's personalized choice to provide news content, unlike traditional media and desktop Internet, people see is the same picture, to ensure that the news in the first time to reach the user, after all, users can not carry computers and television.

This gives the information service providers in the mobile internet a greater space for development. The problem of advertising efficiency, which has been pursued by the media in the past but is difficult to solve, will become simple on the mobile Internet: different people see different ads, ads more like useful information, and direct contact with individual consumers. Mobile advertising can not do the Internet advertising in the screen sound performance effect, but its precision, interactivity and efficiency is unmatched by other media.

Mobile E-commerce also has a great growth space. Imagine what would happen: buy anytime, anywhere, 500 metres from the mall; a friend of yours in an office building goes downstairs to the café, and you can receive his comments on the coffee immediately, based on your previous consumer information, the store will be sent to your nearest new shop. , after receiving DM without turning on the computer, online login, directly scan the two-dimensional code with a mobile phone to complete payment ... The idea is somewhat conservative, and Xu Maodong, in the future of mobile Internet, is very much in line with what the US Futurist Paul Safu said in his 1995 review of the Internet, "the short-term impact may be exaggerated, but its long-term significance will be far more significant than we can imagine." ”

The business model of mobile Internet

"The business model of mobile Internet will be similar to desktop Internet, there will be no fundamental change, that is," Park mode ", but the ratio of charge to free service is different, Xu Maodong.

The so-called "Park mode" is to compare the Internet to a park, when entering the park, the need for tickets, such as ADSL access to broadband Internet services; After entering the park, a number of attractions are free, such as information and search, but there are also some fee-based services. Xu Maodong judged: "The difference is ' quantity ' of different, desktop Internet users pay and advertising revenue ratio of 4:6, and mobile internet will be 6:4, is expected to produce subversive changes." "The reason is that mobile phone is a natural payment tool, mobile Dream Network has developed the habit of user pay." "But still can not change the mobile internet ' Park mode ' pattern, the charge of mobile video development has always disappointments on the desktop Internet Free service directly to the mobile internet charges, it is not feasible." It is important to create new content that is suitable for mobile terminals, rather than simply duplicating them. ”

Free means the media, that is, the main way for free content and service providers to earn money is advertising revenue, while paid content and service provider's profit model for users instant payment and E-commerce. The Morgan Stanley report noted that in 2008, the top 50 internet companies in the world's revenue, advertising accounted for 40%, and paid services accounted for the overall 25%, E-commerce accounted for 35%. The top 50 mobile internet companies in the world's revenue, advertising for 5%, pay 22%, E-commerce 73%, of which E-commerce services most of the content of a number of words, such as music, games and so on. "In the next few years, there will be a big increase in the share of advertising revenue," Xu Maodong said. ”