The trend analysis: blue-chip plate or return of the king

In the climax of the influx of funds, it is difficult to expect a relatively deep adjustment in the short-term market, the market's each shock callback will be the admission of new funds and old funds to adjust the position structure of the opportunity.　　Large blue-chip companies in the first quarter has a very good performance, the market will form an important value support. Author: Zou-core monthly data source: The situation of investment at home and abroad today is very good. The policy effects of stimulating the economy, especially the housing market, are taking effect, and the total number of mortgage applications has increased sharply and property prices have rebounded. This shows some signs of stabilisation in the US housing market.　　Plus the March U.S. purchasing managers Industry index, current indicators, such as the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, have also shown that the economy has improved, and US consumer data has ended a unilateral downward trend, with the US-led world economy or already beginning to enter a recovery period, and the world's economic ice has begun to "melt away". In this macro-background, China's active fiscal policy and monetary policy effects are beginning to appear, the current indicators show signs of recovery: The PMI index not only appeared in the April rebound, and over 50% of the economic and cold critical point, the current index of China's macroeconomic boom has been 3 consecutive months of recovery, The first quarter's entrepreneurial confidence index also ended a three consecutive quarterly decline.　　And the real economy, positive and negative fixed assets to ensure the smooth growth of investment, foreign trade situation has improved; In the first quarter, China's total retail sales of consumer goods out of the second half of last year's decline trend, achieved steady and rapid growth. And the credit investment has maintained the high speed growth situation, the liquidity is more abundant. Money supply Indicators M1, M2 growth rates have increased significantly, M1, M2 between the scissors than last month continued to narrow.　　All these indicators invariably point to China's first economic recovery. Long multi-pattern unchanged in this macro background, a-share market trend and characteristics will be?　　We believe that as the economic indicators, and the economic situation is still unknown, a-share shocks will continue to increase, but the long pattern remains unchanged. First of all, since the 1664-point A shares appeared nearly 50% of the sharp rebound, a shares of the static P/E (TTM) has risen to 22.5, the dynamic P/E ratio rose to 19, the city's net rate of 2.92.　　From the historical valuation, the market returns to a relatively reasonable level, the overall did not appear overvalued, especially the higher than the reasonable valuation of the large stocks for the market to provide a cushion for the fall. Second, the overall a-share from the previous underestimated state to a relatively reasonable level, is an error correction of the rising stage, in the short term the force of market inertia can not be ignored. In the medium term, along with the gradual recovery of China's economy and the gradual stabilization of the peripheral market, the reasonable valuation level of the A-share market may be further enhanced.　　But the economic recovery is not a success, the performance of listed companies will also fluctuate, which means that the overall market shocks will also intensify, and blue-chip market stability is gradually important. Finally, in the long run, as the full circulation process gradually, the power of market stability is also gradually increasing. Full circulation of the market is certainly more reasonable than the share splitting, the momentum of convergence of interests to make a difference.　　The full circulation of the stock of the psychological threat to investors than the full circulation of smaller, market stability is also gradually increasing the strength, from this point of view, time will be to resolve the positive factors in the market shocks intensified.　　Blue-chip industry valuation return to the listed company annual report, Quarterly performance Disclosure curtain, so that we can more clearly observe the current stage of corporate performance changes. In the 4 quarter of the company's operating conditions significantly deteriorated under the influence of 2008, the performance of listed companies fell 16.8% Year-on-year, which coincided with the market trend in the second half of 08.　　At present, the more important change is the performance of listed companies in the first quarter. By the end of April, the 1602-a-share companies have all completed the first quarter of the performance disclosure, operating conditions can not be fully optimistic. Statistics show that the first quarter of all a-share company to achieve main income of 2,308,658,000,000 yuan, down from the same period of 2008 down 12.43%, 2008 years of the four-year chain down 13.04%; From the profit data, All companies in the first quarter to achieve net profit of 202.809 billion yuan, down 25.07% year-on-year, but a sharp increase of 483.46%.　　In the quarter, the performance of listed companies rebounded sharply, showing that the government investment stimulus has already had an impact on the micro-profit of enterprises, which corresponds to the replenishment process after four quarters in the economic operation. However, we also note that the first quarter of the total investment net income of a share company 41.431 billion yuan, and last year four quarter compared with a sharp increase of 12.81 billion yuan.　　This part of the revenue contribution to the first-quarter profit growth of listed companies. And from the listed companies operating cash flow statistics, the first quarter of the total operating cash flow of 228.853 billion yuan, down 11.46%, the chain is a sharp contraction of 85.72%, this data and some of the previous optimistic expectations are different, The macro-level warming did not bring the real change of the micro-operating environment of listed companies.　　This is consistent with the basic pattern of "macroscopic heat and micro-cold" of the whole economy at present. From the announcement of interim results, the overall operating situation of listed companies is not very optimistic. As of April 30, 2009, a total of 569 listed companies in the two cities announced the 2009 interim results forecast. Among them, 42 companies have been increasing, 96 companies slightly increased, 37 companies continue to profit, 20 companies, the company accounted for all the forecast company 34.27%, 121 companies, 64 companies slightly reduced, 98 companies first loss, 77 companies continued to lose, the company accounted for the ratio of 63.27%. "Worry" is still the main problem to be faced in the semi-annual reports of listed companies. From the market point of view, while the market valuation level is gradually higher, while the company's performance expectations are not ideal, the future market reliance on performance growth to resolve the valuation pressure is becoming increasingly difficult, the market continues to the upward may be facing a comparisonObvious valuation pressure. But from the market point of view, the situation has become relatively optimistic. From the results of the first quarter, the large blue-chip companies on the listed companies profit chain growth to make the most important contribution to occupy an absolute dominant position. ICBC, the construction Bank, Bank of China, PetroChina, China Life, Sinopec and other quarterly profits accounted for all listed companies in the first quarter of the total profit of more than 60%. In particular, Sinopec's net profit in the first quarter of this year rose 84.7%, more than the previous market generally expected to increase by 50%, Bank of China 1 quarterly to achieve net profit of 18.57 billion yuan, the chain growth of 320.42%, the banking sector in the credit environment "to the amount of price" of the argument obtained data validation; , China Railway Quarterly net profit also achieved year-on-year growth of 33.86% and 86.61% respectively. In addition, ICBC, Ping ' an and the central coal energy and other large-market blue chips, net profit has also achieved a different degree of growth, of which ICBC first quarter to achieve after-tax profit of 35.289 billion yuan, not only the chain growth of more than 90%, Year-on-year also has 6.03% growth.　　The growth of blue-chip companies has fundamentally limited the room for a pullback in the market, so we feel that the overall May market will remain broad and the bottom is elevated. From the valuation point of view, the current market valuation situation is not very optimistic, the two stocks static P/E ratio 20 times times, considering a small 09-year performance Forecast, dynamic P/E ratio of about 22 times times. and 14 industry static P/E ratio has more than 30 times times, pharmaceutical biology, agriculture, integrated more than 50 times times, there are local overvaluation characteristics. Below the market average, only 4 industries, such as steel, delivery, finance and mining, show that weighting stocks play an important role in pulling down the average valuation level of the market.　　And from the basic characteristics of capital city, the economic recovery is expected to stimulate the blue-chip industry valuation return, may also bring some profit opportunities. Control risk following the long current phase, the market for the growth of economic recovery is expected to be highly unified, abundant market funds, investor sentiment is soaring. Although the April market rapid upward, so that the accumulation of higher profits in the field, some plate companies also appear local overvaluation, but in the tide of capital into the stock market, it is difficult to expect a relatively deep short-term market adjustment.　　The shock correction of the market may become the new capital admission and old funds to adjust the position structure of the opportunity, so the whole environment is relatively optimistic. However, the May market environment is not entirely pure, as the market continues to move higher, the lifting of the release of the shares of pressure is also increasing. Gem related regulations are also being introduced, expansion of the expected gradually approaching.　　Peripheral markets may also be affected by the pressure test results of the US banking industry and the changes in influenza outbreaks, so we are still cautious about the development process. Correspondingly, we choose to follow the long strategy on the basis of the risk control in the investment strategy.　　In the operation of the need to control the position, to avoid chasing up and down, in the choice of stocks also need a clearer margin of safety. At present, there is a revival of the expected theme of investment in the cityField has the greatest attraction. The state reduces the proportion of its own funds in some industries and becomes the key to reversing the market expectations, and has become a new focus of the market. On the one hand, companies such as real estate, coal, port and other higher financial costs can significantly reduce financial pressure, obviously benefit; on the other hand, the policy thinking of promoting economic growth through investment promotion is clearer, and investment-related building materials (cement, explosives, welding electrodes), construction machinery,　　Construction companies may have more than expected development opportunities, stable performance, there are still some structural opportunities, worthy of investor attention. From the whole macro-economic operation trajectory, although there is a micro-level operating conditions are not ideal, but this also happens to be the management of further measures to safeguard economic growth of the power source.　　We anticipate that 2, in the 3 quarter, GDP data reflecting the overall trend of macroeconomic operation will continue to rebound, showing a gradual upward trend, which will likely further strengthen the view of economic recovery in the market, and there is a chance of a simultaneous pick-up in the traditional cyclical industries of finance (banking, insurance), real estate, petrochemical and steel. In the short to medium term, the market focus will remain more focused on the various investment themes, for example, the first anniversary of the Expo, the Shanghai dual-centre construction, the Hercynian economic Zone, the medical unit benefiting from the epidemic, and the investment-driven 3G concept unit and the new energy-type stocks that are in line with the economy, still have many opportunities to focus on. In addition, to benefit from the gem exit of the concept of venture stocks, as well as low-cost restructuring theme, there may be an explosion of opportunities, but the difficulty is relatively high grasp.