Wang Yuquan: Big Data must be combined with social networks to be valuable

December 12, 2012 Cloud World Congress grand opening. In the evening of the "Cloud Night" scene, Frost & Sullivan, President of China, the founding partner of the Bank of Silver Wang Yuquan to participate in the "Future mobile Internet Outlook" as the theme of participation to share their views.

The following is a live speech record:

Data is the basis for understanding the world

We know the world, I think as a rational person, not just that liberal arts students, our science students know the world is to be through a lot of data accumulation, we dare not nonsense, we do not dare to dream, down-to-earth.

In fact, the data is the basis for understanding the world, if there is no data, we will have a lot of deviations. Freud said that the little boy was born to kill his father instead of his father. In fact, Freud did not have large data, with data to prove that this thing is false, you ask the child is not to kill your father, he will not answer.

After the founding of Israel, because Israel is the use of the farm system, many children after weaning, often a farm hundreds of children grow up together, hundreds of children found a rule, a farm-grown children, grow up not married, The most is to migrate to another farm until the age of 6 years old until the age of 12. Occasionally married, children who grew up before the age of 6 were not married, and in nature they excluded incest. This is particularly true of human studies, I think this era is a great time, is our science students have the upper hand, because we now more and more data to study those small fresh, small style, we take data research film, we can calculate out who cry or not cry, moved or not moved, So when I looked at the 3D printer, I was wondering when we could print out the artist.

In fact, we are now more and more thorough analysis of people. We conclude that the 20th century is basically a world of rational and quantitative analysis of human beings, and we have a very deep understanding of people. A book called "Thinking Fast and slow" is basically a generalization of what happens to people's entire brain and what we do.

So we think that the science must progress, must be such three paragraph theory, must accumulate sufficient data first, this produces certain cognition, produces the theory on the Cognition Foundation, the theory will instruct us to practice, in turn practice proof theory, we go forward. Einstein was great again, but no one acknowledged his theory of relativity until experimental physics proved that light could be distorted. This is particularly important.

To the Arts field, to psychology also need to have evidence, this person is very strange, he is Freud's nephew and nephew, his father is Freud his wife's brother, he is the first large-scale use of psychological analysis in human history to change human behavior. So he was recognized as the originator of the public relations industry in the West, he proved for the first time that a good theory can change practice, so I think the people here may have some small freshness, there are some literature and art, should not have minors, his most famous example of human change is to develop a woman's habit of smoking. The 1820s, Western women do not smoke, smoking men, tobacco companies are very unhappy, ask him, you do not study psychology? How do you change these people to make women smoke? He used Freud's theory to study these, what cigarettes mean, male smoking is a kind of show off, the woman why smoking, he found a reason, called treason. There was a feminist movement in the United States, and you guys smoke a little, and I smoke. So he basically did not spend money organized 100,000 people in New York parade, the front 100 celebrities, very famous women each holding a cigarette, a lot of things changed we do not know is good or bad. But come back and we have to guide the good.

21st century is the world of Understanding human society

We think 20th century is a psychological exploration, we know more and more about ourselves in the century, the 21st century is to know the world of human society, because before we want to understand that we do not have data, like how can always know the big bank data is still very rare, I disclosed that, in fact, operators know the data more powerful, I communicate with friends , he told me that we can through the user cell phone analysis, can be filtered out from the user, who is escort, who is triad.

When we do sociological research, we have a law of uncertainty, is a leader in the network analysis of the United States, a very young man put forward, when we do the traditional research, want to study the whole society, three conditions, most of the second, it is impossible to get all, one is a large range, large sample, We all know CCTV Sofres, want to do TV ratings survey, we know how many samples? More than 3,000, we all know how many TV sets in China, you use more than 3,000 samples to reflect the behavior of hundreds of millions of users, this is not absurd to say. For example, you can know everyone's account data from the Public Security Bureau, but the next two items at the same time to obtain the difficult, the second is real-time, real-time is possible, I can see everyone from the satellite real-time location, real-time if you want to continuously record, continuous data on the trouble, can not get. Our previous understanding of humanity is always biased, and this bias can cause all sorts of things, when I found out that our science students had not come, the liberal arts were old nonsense, such as a book called "The Mob", he said that groups of people will always produce a lot of stupid, there will be violence, there will be rumors, all kinds of bad things, We call the group stupid, the problem is later when the science was born, it produced a new word, when the group can be well organized, not more stupid but wiser. The despair of liberal arts students needs to be changed by the optimism of our science students.

So what's really going on with society now is that we have social networks, especially Web2.0 that change the status quo, whether on Facebook, Twitter, Sina Weibo, micro-letters, we can always get full sample real-time continuous data, This time our understanding of user behavior has reached an unprecedented depth, this depth can guide us to do a lot of things to change the world, and when we have a deeper understanding of group behavior, we find that, in fact, humans are far from the imagination so sad, really sad, We are surrounded by a few of our friends country more sad, the other is not sad. The science of research shows that human nature naturally has a particularly strong cooperative factor, our world is still full of light.

In fact, when we have the data, our understanding of the world begins to deepen, and many of the previous laws we don't know have revealed a lot of things to us. The big link, written by two professors at Harvard, reveals an interesting phenomenon people are interacting with each other, and the impact is very strong, it is an example of obesity, we all know that obesity should not be contagious, because obesity is eating too much, but in reality we do not know why, but we do know that obesity is contagious, So its research shows that he has accumulated more than 30 years of extensive health data in the United States, his research shows that if you have a friend who has recently gained weight, your chances of getting fat increase by 50%, and if your friend's friend gets fatter, your chances of getting fat will increase by 25%. So many times we say how recently fat, don't worry to lose weight, see your friend, if your friend is still thin, look at your friend's friend, if you make friends carelessly, you this friend is not fat, your friend must stand four fat behind.

This thing will change our whole view of the world, why? We find that people are so strongly connected with each other, their research shows that not only is obesity contagious, diabetes is contagious, heart disease is contagious, genotypes are contagious, and of course you're saying it's impossible, but I'm telling you, big data doesn't tell you cause and effect, but it tells you about relevance. Our understanding of the world has suddenly intensified.

What we're going to do later on, the one we're going to think is a little out of the way, was one of Zuckerberg's early team, he quit the Facebook team in 07, he went to help Obama elect, Obama created a miracle, the Democratic Party is a few funds to win the Republican majority of funds, But with social networks, they have succeeded in making money from people who have donated more money than his rivals. It's great that the ants beat the elephants, and after the election, a magazine in the United States used him as a cover, and wrote a line of words "to help Obama get into the White House", and of course he recently did a very special thing and he married another man. We can change when we know enough about society. Americans find that the same sex can get married and he changes.

It is said that Obama said at the age of 26, people are trying to understand the world, and the problem is to change the world, we have to understand a little more to change the world, we have to put him to the good place, the good place to change. Like the girl who just sang, I am a timid person, I hope that through the changes in the world, secretly stand behind me so that younger than me can speak, can say what to say, so that we mainland people can also like Taiwan's Mr. Zhang, said want to print a Lin Chi-ling to print a Lin Chi-ling. If you have doubts about it, you can read another book called The Heart of justice. We hope that in the future we can dare to say anything.

Accumulate data, deepen understanding, form theories, and change the world

Of course to do or follow these three steps: accumulate data, deepen understanding to form theory, change the world. We are trying to do such a thing. Because before I see a lot of demos are actually introduced abroad, we are domestic, why say so, because Tian always know, originally we do telecommunications have an expectation, actually Chinese operators, actually from 2000 onwards, especially from 02, 03, 04, 05 These years, It should be said that the field of operators in the world is one of the leading. We always have a hope that we can really lead in the world, hope to talk about the story of the Chinese People, social networking era brings us this opportunity. First, many principles of American society They have not followed, we are similar to Britain, France, we are more than a specimen of human society. On the other hand, our social data is also more robust, Facebook has data, it is said, although they have data, but because it is one-to-one, so he can not open the data I chat to others. Just like today's micro-trust data, Twitter is not the same, Twitter is the most convenient way to reach the news, he is more called the transmission of news, rather than chatting, not knowledge sharing, not everyone to discuss, not to build groups, Facebook has not even discussed, replies are not, only forwarding. Only in China Sina Weibo is actually like Facebook, we chat on Sina Weibo, make friends, and we actually enjoy this kind of chat you are watching the feeling, such as Pan Shiyi, Ren Zhiqiang daily on micro-blog said Crosstalk, because there are onlookers, if you run to Facebook to say Crosstalk, no one , so much so that celebrities and Sina are uncomfortable, I left Weibo and came back in two months, because no one else was watching, and this was a social public place in Facebook, where we analyzed, and we were able to extract a lot of valuable data and use that data to understand society. , we think that some studies should be better than foreign countries because they have no data. We set up a very good database, the user's various feature tags are played, and we played a lot of tags will be fun.

I share some interesting data with you, a person friendly or not is to see him speak inside say commendatory more, or derogatory word more, you speak to the old with derogatory that this person certainly is unfriendly. Derogatory in the dictionary, Two-thirds, that we are always more mean to others, the Chinese dictionary is so, in fact, English also, we are the same as the foreigner. But we are doing a research recently, in the real social life of our commendatory, the use of derogatory terms, we put Sina Weibo everyone's microblog inside the commendatory, derogatory grasp out, commendatory much more than derogatory words, in real life, we are quite friendly. Weibo celebrity commendatory is very much, we are still continuing to analyze, get the conclusion with everybody report. We certainly want to see a high percentage of everyone's commendatory, and it's possible that when you're in Weibo, your derogatory usage increases, because you live in the reality, if the status is lower, there will be more chances of conflict with people, so you will use derogatory words, such as the study was not done before, now can be done.

Foreign research on social behavior to quantify, the previous quantification can not use massive data, because Facebook does not open data to society, he wants to do a small study called Behavioral economics, often a small sample of dozens of people and hundreds of people, indicating that a person's social status is related to the social resources he can access. , what does that mean? For a man, its social resources tend to mean that he can meet more young and beautiful women. We can imagine a Nobel laureate, more than 80 years old, and then married a more than 20-year-old girl, if it is a look at the bicycle shed more than 80-year-old people will not be married, this matter has never been quantitative analysis before, quantitative charm is here, we now put the microblog inside of all, Gave him a label for social status, and then we drew all the people of the same social status, people of the same age out, according to social status, the difference between the larger people, they know the two-way friends inside the women and his age difference is not the same, we can understand this algorithm, it was not possible, after all transparent , our understanding of the world has greatly deepened.

Of course this kind of deepening is actually very complex, I do not give you, we want to understand the world, we make changes, this is what we do now, in fact, before Facebook listed some data show that the average number of Facebook friends is 130, If we understand social research, we now have the human brain to manage the upper limit of 150 people, now computers are not as good as our brain management. But that's okay, as long as the technology comes out, the back is by leaps and bounds, so we think that we can use this as an indicator, when the car just came out, it's not faster than the horse, but soon, it doubled the growth, then we also expect that social network is to enable our social behavior has a rapid rise in capacity, And that is vital, because almost all of our behavior is socialization, we have little socialization, maybe you dream at night, you dream in the night, not socialization, but once you dream that others are socialized, that time if you can increase your social ability, For society as a whole will be a release of power, an explosion. The thing we have to do is I can help you manage your friends better, so our application, is to help you to analyze which of your friends and you are the most intimate, with you the best, which friend you ignore him, he said you, when you should be the friend, if your friend did not respond, for us are all responsive, for example, you have a good friend , he has no news for 10 days, this time I will remind you, your good friend has not appeared for 10 days, you should say hello to him.

The application of socialization will change every field. This is our music, music is born to share, birds of a feather flock together, we share habits there is a lot of common, when China is all over the Chinese sound, in fact, micro-BO users more than the one or two-line city, they listen to the truth is not a good voice in China, is directly the United States good voice, In fact, China's good voice is the copyright bought from the United States, so you will find that China confirms the original entrepreneur magazine editor Shen Yin's point of view, the Chinese Internet is two countries, one is dominated by a first-tier city, some of the richest second-tier cities, everyone has a smartphone, broadband is full, this is a country, Another country is a two or three-line city, or even a small county, the only internet is the mobile phone, the country's behavior and we are completely different, that country to listen to Chinese good voice, listen to the most dazzling national wind, then this country is worshipping, this country to listen to the United States good voice, The country is said to have multinational advertising companies to go to the one or two-line city children's bedrooms to take pictures, their wall stickers of stars are international, he does not stick to Zhao Benshan. So this is a completely different world, and this is what we know only by analysis, but the two worlds, their own world will share their own things, because their own needs, their own interest characteristics are consistent, this is our music to share.

We do food sharing, catering to the core, we think that inviting people to eat is mainly to choose a restaurant, pick a favorite, in fact, is wrong, please eat is to pick a people like, the most attractive socialization is that everything can be quantified, and through the three-degree association we have just said the algorithm, We think that the algorithm is seriously underestimated, today we are talking about six-degree connection, in fact, the real meaning of the future is called the three-degree impact. For each of us, if you are my once friend, I directly know you, two degrees friend, is a friend of the introduction of friends, friends also do, the rest is three degrees.

Then three degrees of interaction, there is a very strong place, is that this algorithm can solve the problem of large data sparsity, the previous BI algorithm to understand a person's behavior characteristics, this person must have their own behavior, and the accumulation of behavioral data enough, I can analyze what he is, what he likes, Some of his occasional behavioral data is not available, is going to be discarded, so we say that the analysis of BI is convergent, the more the analysis of this person's characteristics, but the social network of human analysis is divergent, there is a very bad place, there are some things you do not want to hide, for example, in the absence of social networks, A celebrity has always said that he graduated from Caltech, people believe for a long time, there are social networks you see his friends circle, there are several Western Pacific, no Caltech, you know where he graduated. Look at a person reviews what dishes, like what kind of food I know his appetite. Social networks can change a lot of things.

Of course, another social networking site can predict the future, which is a special thing for me, the film "1942" Forecast box office 380 million, time is November 9, we all know he is December, one months after the release, that's what we've been predicting more than one months ago, the people who did the data, we hatched these teams, and when we developed these teams, I took all the startups and I watched a movie about a baseball team, the baseball team, from the so-called Operating by experience, saying I am an old coach, an old manager, to a purely quantitative operation, I see the first time the special feeling, shed tears, serious carrying great pressure, everyone said you are dead, the coaches do not cooperate, the first few failed, then slowly have the complexion, successive victories, all reports that the old coach really have experience. I feel the same pressure as our entrepreneurial team, and when we talk to people in the film industry, this data we released two months ago, after the announcement, Huayi Brothers called a call to say you are going to black us, and then we say no, we are quantitative data out, the film Circle people say, You this test in other people's body no problem, used in Feng Xiaogang is ineffective, this is definitely 7, 800 million of the big film, Epoch-making, said a bunch, we were under great pressure, I wanted to go all out, tube him. Of course it's going to take a lot of data to win, we are digital believers, we firmly believe that the data is right, we firmly deny our intuition. Today, we talk to the film circle, not to say that you really wise, he is saying that in fact, we know that the film, Feng Xiaogang will compensate, you see the film time, tell the story, there is no user. So really want to start a career, really want to push a thing, you have to endure loneliness, you have no way to explain to people, because the world will only accept the result.

Of course, when we're strong, when we know the social network, because socialization itself is related to every aspect of each of us, and then we have the cloud, the big data, the ability to say that our understanding of socialization is sufficiently deep, and we through social analysis, the rational design of socialized business, When we can change the world, we have the belief to identify, and we very firmly believe that when you are the first wave of time you are the greatest, you risked the greatest risk, but you are the real driving the world. We like adventure, I like gambling, gambling is always to predict the future, because all my bets on the future are on my prediction, we Gbagbo all social, and I firmly believe that it will be a great trend to change all human behaviour, and that the microblogging has begun to show signs, Microblogging service lunch. Changing human behavior habits, so that the community to go forward, of course, not enough, but also to further predict.

What I expect to happen in a few years, the first future will not have a social application of the word, like today's mobile applications, Internet applications like, the future will not mention, only the front-end and back-end, the back-end in the cloud, front-end is mobile phone, screen, you said I call wireless application is meaningless, socialization is the same. The layout of our investment is very simple, what is the largest in the existing Internet field? And this big guy has existed for more than 10 years, which means that he has not been able to do the social transformation, I will do a social application to replace him, each one of the field cloth a bureau. The second socialization makes the relationship more intimate, I also talked about privacy, I think the privacy is not a problem, today we are in the industrialized era of privacy, the industrialized people are highly alienated, you started playing social network, when you have the privacy, your privacy has never been, talk about what protection. But the other thing is more important, credit, the third is called collaboration ability, is the professional division of labor, group collaboration, including creativity, because when the professional division of time, we socialized to make our cooperation more complex, complex means that everyone must do their best to do the things, human is the most adept at creativity, The Chinese move is called Guillong, and he speaks a point called new bucket theory, is that you are not to repair the short plate but to the slender board, you have to find your own strongest board, it is the strongest in the world, you can be the world's most powerful people to join hands, so that others will join you. The fourth is that when we have quantitative data, when we make clear rational decision, I feel that our humanity must return, all irrational, inhuman are from information asymmetry.

Why do you have a lot of complaints about the ruling class today because of asymmetric information? With so much to say, we are a bunch of determined idealists, we use all our previous credits, previous experiences, all the money we have now, all the time, we want to do one thing, not to hatch a company, because we have done the company, we have invested in the company, but not exciting, is to hatch an industry, To bring China's industry-leading industry in the world, just like the telecommunications dream. And the industry is more open, this industry finally everyone's life, all aspects are closely related, everyone wants to do better, this is the whole socialization application of the forward momentum, because he can let us do better, but today we still have to endure loneliness, so I would like to preach to you is the hope that we can support, Maybe we will fail, but we have to gamble. Always have to make a contribution, so we especially worship is not jobs's stubbornness, not Jobs's inhumanity, not charity, but his obsession, Apple launched the Apple Computer advertising words, "to those crazy guys salute ..." I believe that all of us here have the same dream, that is, we together through our data, through our knowledge, through our understanding of the world to transform the world, the world to transform a better, thank you!

(Responsible editor: Lu Guang)