Who is farther from the valuation ceiling

-Banguo, director of the Institute of Dongxing Securities, the first half of the market is mainly valuation-driven. Historically, valuation-driven gains of more than 50% per cent in the rebound cycle usually mean entering the pressure zone, while the bull cycle can reach more than 200%. According to the industry valuation stress test, only 11 of the 54 two-tier sub-industries are still under the ceiling.　　　　　　Therefore, the second half of the market's momentum is first from the process of filling in valuation depressions, followed by a new contribution to performance growth, so the valuation pressure will continue to be reflected.　　The solo dance features since the 1644 point on the logic of rebound, the common view is mainly focused on the "liquidity expansion" and "economic recovery expectations", especially the automobile, real estate two major consumer goods and credit scale of the super expected growth, to promote the market in the face of periodic valuation pressure can be smoothly resolved.　　From the point of view of the driving force of market rise, whatever logic is based, it can be decomposed into two drivers: one is performance driven, the other is valuation driven. First of all, from the performance change, to listed companies as an example, in accordance with the overall calculation of the 2009-year quarterly earnings per share of 0.0833 yuan, with the 2008 quarter of 0.1178 and 2008 years of the Four seasons of 0.0142 Yuan compared to achieve year-on-year growth-29.29% and the chain growth of 486.62 %。　　Clearly, the 2008-year-long performance is an anomaly after a slump, and a high growth in the first quarter of 2008, so the first quarter of this year should be a return to normal results. In line with the current increase in industrial value to restore growth, 2008 years of the Four seasons slipped to 5%-6% level, 2009-year first quarter back to about 8% levels, then the annual industrial value may return to close or slightly more than 10% level.　　The corresponding increase in the performance of listed companies is likely to change from the negative growth we forecast last year to a positive increase of 5% to 10%, which is mainly due to the Better-than-expected decline in the four quarter last year and the strong economic stimulus policy this year. In terms of valuation changes, market in the 2,800-point area of PE and PB are 28 times times and 3.1 times times, and 2008 with this point roughly equivalent to the PE and PB is about 20 times times and 3.2 times times, in addition, due to the performance of the same period 2009 year in the first quarter of 2008 fell 29.29%,　　Given such a discount, the corresponding PE and PB are 14 times times and about 2.3 times times respectively, that is to say, the current valuation is about 100% or 34.8% of the premium over last year's 2,800 points. A comprehensive assessment of the results of performance growth and valuation changes, 5―10% 's performance growth for the 2,800-point area relative to last year's valuation premium is not enough to explain. Of course, there are two factors to explain this premium: one is that market expectations for future performance fell last year, and the market is expecting a recovery in future performance this year, so valuations last year will be discounted, and this year there will beAnd another factor is that market sentiment can lead to a rise or fall in valuations.　　But we think that even considering such factors, there are also good reasons to believe that the rise in this market is mainly driven by valuation gains, rather than the driver of performance growth (although the performance is recovering on a month-on-month basis but still relatively low at absolute levels), especially from the PE point of view. PE-driven historical experience China's a-share market has historically gained more from valuation-driven, and even in the bull-market cycle of 2007 's sharp growth in the performance of listed companies, a significant part of it comes from valuation-driven.　　So what we are going to summarize and analyze is what is the limit of the valuation drive in history? It is clear that the main drivers of the rest of the bull or bear market rally have come from valuation-driven, in addition to the bear-cycle rally in late 2003 and April 2004, during the period we have observed.　　If we make some simple mergers of historical data, such as merging the two segments of the bull market from 1996 to 1997, and defining the 1999 5?19 as a preview of the 2000 bull market, the value-driven gains in recent bull cycles can reach more than 200%. If you look only at the rebound data in the two bear cycles, then the valuation contribution is about 50%, especially if the rebound, which started at the end of 2003, is the main driver of growth as a result of the rise in the macroeconomic cycle, with PE even falling by 4.26% per cent,　　This suggests that there is a limit to the rally in bear markets, and that there is no fundamental change in the factors that restrict the market's turn to the bull, or even a big breakthrough in the rapid growth of performance. According to the above analysis of the driving factors, we think that there are two points to judge the market trend: first, the main factors restricting the market to enter the bull markets is that the time window of economic recovery to trend growth is not certain, and the impact of the reduction of the non-tradable scale on the liquidity pattern. As a result, we still suggest that the rally since 1664 be defined as a rally in the bear cycle, so that the two factors do not show signs of good turnaround, the extent of the market rebound should be limited; second, if there are limitations to the market rebound, the limitation is mainly the valuation pressure.　　In the absence of a performance-driven contribution, more than 50% per cent of the market gains driven by valuations are generally considered to be in high-risk areas, so the ceiling for valuation is becoming important. Valuation Ceiling--who is farther or closer from the market operation pattern since June, the most notable feature is the trend towards "28" feature recurrence, while the core power of the dominant 28 feature can be summed up to two levels: first, the economic recovery sequence as the leading, that is, first from the anti-cycle of the SME board, and then evolved to the early cycle of the resource products , and then to the late cycle of financial, industrial and commercial services, consumer goods and other transition. OK, the logic of the expected economic recovery is the route that can explain the evolution of market opportunities.　　Second, the capital to the valuation of the depression flow-oriented, that is, the rationality of valuation and cumulative increase in the size of the market has become the focus of renewed attention. In terms of the economic outlook, one can agree that the shape of the economic recovery is still divided, because the data in itself is a mixed blessing, and it is not the market for the economic recovery process and shape of controversy. But investment demand, with ample capital and yield comparisons, is real, especially in the case of an uncertain economic recovery and inflationary expectations from easy monetary policy, with more and more funds opting to invest in asset markets (commodity futures, equities and real estate). However, with the increase of cumulative gain, the interest rate of assets to medium and long term investors has dropped significantly, and it is a very important logic to fill the valuation depressions.　　As a result, comparisons of the average and highest values of historical bull and rally highs can be a fundamental way to judge distance-valuation ceilings.　　Based on the above logic, we found in the history of the bull market highs and bear market in a sharp rebound in valuation indicators, because of EPS in the economic cliff-type slowdown and the current recovery process is very volatile, so PE fluctuation is also very large, so we chose PB as a measure of distance ceiling valuation index. With the June 10 2,828 as a static point, we observed how far the ceiling of the 54 two-tier industry ranges from the valuation of the ceilings, and can draw the following conclusions: first, Overall, The current PB level is equivalent to 0.76 of the average value of historical highs, equivalent to 0.51 of the historical highest valuations, that is, if measured by a bull market, there is still a considerable distance from the valuation ceiling, and second, if the bear market rally is higher, then the 1999 5? 19 compared to a 0.75 of the valuations at the time, but compared with a 2004 rebound, it has exceeded valuations by 34%.　　In terms of both the average, it can be said that the rally has now entered the valuation ceiling area. Third, in terms of industry, we analyze the valuation ceiling under the rebound cycle, that is, the benchmark for the 2004-year rally, which still has a valuation advantage of only 11 industries (20.37%), respectively, banks, highways, shipping, automotive vehicles, paper, port, communications operations, securities, semiconductors,　　Airports and the media.　　Four, from a risk perspective, we think that the biggest valuation risk is those that significantly exceed the valuation ceiling, because there is no industry beyond the historical highest valuations (bull's ceiling), in terms of the average value of historical highs, aviation, biological products, electrical equipment, food processing may be a more risky species. Overall, the current valuation of the bull cycle of the ceiling space is still large, but the rebound cycle of the valuation ceiling is basically touched. At the same time, the market structure is very clear, that is, the traditional large-market value of blue chip valuation has not touched the valuation ceiling, these varieties in the second half should be first to fill the valuation of depressions, the contribution to the index may be more pronounced.　　Therefore, we believe that the overall market rally has come to an end, the process of closing valuations of large market stocks may be the final race of the index. Masters Famous View