Black Swan and Big Data

Abstract: what humans do not know is far more meaningful than what they know. History is never a linear development. Every time we jump forward, there is a "Black Swan. This is what the black swan incident tells us.

 

The previous article cited the cool and cool term "black swan event", which caused many readers to send messages and let me talk about the black swan event. Today I will give you a brief introduction of my understanding of the black swan event and big data.

If you are like many people who love reading books, for example, I will know that "Black Swan" is not a new word. It is derived from the Black Sky goose in Australia. In the 17th century, Europeans thought that all the swans were white because they had never seen any other colored Swan. Of course, I have never seen any other colored swan. At the beginning of the 18th century, when the Europeans traveled to Australia, they were surprised to find that some Swan was black (Shai! Europeans are scared because they believe in their own judgment and believe that there is only white swan in the world. The extent of their belief is that, when we were a child, they vowed that the communist principles of the 21st century must be realized, is the same. The brutal fact has led to the collapse of European beliefs. They ran back to their hometown and told me: Mom, there were black swan in the world. It is known as the "Black Swan incident 」.

The emergence of the Black Swan indicates that there will always be unpredictable important events and rare events in the world. Unexpectedly, once it appears, it may change everything. No matter how many places you have visited and how many white swans you have observed, the appearance of a black swan will invalidate all your previous reasoning and conclusions. Humans always trust their experiences too much and hope that their judgments, decisions, and plans will arrive on schedule, but the reality will always make us helpless. No matter the sinking of Titanic, the Second World War, the 9.11 attack, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and the internet wave, these events were not predicted by humans, it has had a significant impact on the history of mankind.

Even the choice of ordinary people in daily life also exists many black swan phenomena. I wrote a sentence on Weibo: I have two friends who are tough and don't give up on the company, over more than a decade, I have grown from a programmer to a vice president of technology, and the company has collapsed due to a sudden financial scandal ...... Another friend is always in the middle of his job-hopping. After two years of work in a company, the company went public, and he went to NASDAQ for a minute! Let's take a look and calm down and think about what days have you spent in planning for the past decade or decades?

Of course, many people will say that we now have big data-related technologies, and our information is vast. If we say that the data in the past is packed in baskets, We have to transport it by train and ship, we use millions of computers connected together to compute, process, and count the data. Isn't one or two black swan predictions coming? In the species field of nature, the spread of technology and information in the world has almost no more mistakes made by Europeans in the 17th century, but it is still difficult to predict the "Black Swan incident.

Tell a story about pig. There is a pig that is not in the air. Since its birth, it has lived in a paradise like a pigsty. Every day, some standing creatures are coming. From time to time, some delicious food is thrown in. The pig feels that it is very cool. When he was happy, he went to the mud and rolled around. When he was sad, he squatted on the barrier of the pigsty and watched the sun fall down. The spring and autumn came, and the years did not conflict. After hundreds of days of big data analysis, the pig thought it would continue until he grew from pig to pig ...... One afternoon before the Spring Festival, a bloody killing has changed the belief that Nima's big data is a lie ...... The scream stops.

Whether it is your personal income, book sales, popularity, Google search volume, blood pressure, teeth, and stock prices, it may be the black swan event 」, they have only undergone minor changes in the past several hundred days and have certain trends. you think things will continue to develop like this, as the sun rises from the east every day, the fall in the West is just as natural, but in the past 1001 days, a huge change has occurred!

The captain of titanic once said:

Based on all my experience, I have not encountered any accidents worth mentioning. I saw a ship in distress throughout my career at sea. I have never seen a ship, never in danger, and never in danger that may evolve into a disaster.

Then he drove the world's safest giant Titanic to sea ......

What humans do not know is much more meaningful than what they know. History is never a linear development. Every time we jump forward, there is a "Black Swan. This is what the black swan incident tells us.

So how do ordinary people face the black swan phenomenon? If I say, "if he is strong enough, the breeze will let Shan gang go; If he is arrogant, the moon shines on the river", will everyone like him? Not expected, so my opinion is:

1. maintain independent personality and thinking, and continuously improve personal abilities. In the "Black Swan incident" that changes historical processes, the personal role may be slight but useful in life. For example, if you get up in the morning, brush your teeth, have breakfast, put on a fit suit and tie your own pear-shaped shape, happily go to work, and then find yourself unemployed. It doesn't matter. You can program your skills on your right and right hand. You can find your next job and double your salary in minutes.

2. Strive to make a positive "Black Swan incident" in your life, and find a breakthrough career and work in reward. work results are not limited by time, nor paid by pieces. For example, I want to become a technical writer who sells millions of books ......

3. Access the truth through counterevidence. When everyone thinks that something happened is taken for granted, don't rush to join us and think about it in other directions. It's not an old saying, but I cannot prove it is correct, but I can prove it is wrong. It is not to let everyone cross the road, but not to close their eyes to cross the road.

Wait a long time. What did big data do? Currently, big data is mainly used in business decision-making, Intelligent Recommendation, targeted marketing, machine learning, and artificial intelligence 」? Let's wait for the lost plane to find it.

The author of "Black Swan: how to deal with the unpredictable future" said: history and society are not crawling slowly, but jumping step by step. They jumped from one fault to another, with few twists and turns. And we (and the historian) like to believe in small, gradual evolution that we can predict. We are just a huge machine to look back.

Recognizing this will help you in your daily life and future development.

 

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