Electricity business impact is not the main cause of retail growth

"Double 11" the sales of electric dealers become popular focus, and with the Internet, logistics industry development, the business model of E-commerce has become a hot pursuit of many capital. What is the impact of the electric dealer on the traditional department store? What is the future of the department store? On these issues, November 15, Haitong Securities (600837, shares bar) analyst Wang Liting Guest "securities Times" wealth Garden Community (cy.stcn.com), and netizens to discuss the impact of the traditional department store industry.

Internet users: In recent years, the impact of the traditional retail business is growing? What are the suggestions for the transformation of traditional retailing?

Wang Liting: In the 2005, the electric trader has been developing gradually. Since 2011, as the two-tier market in the retail sector has been weak, the market has become increasingly concerned about the impact of traditional channels by the industry, which has been shifted from 25 times times to 15 times times (of course we think 15 times times undervalued). But in fact, industry fundamentals were unaffected in the three quarter of 2010 to 2011, and revenue growth remained at a high level of 25%. Since the four quarter of 2011, industry income growth has dropped markedly, and we believe that this is mainly as the economic downturn, consumer income expectations and consumer willingness to decline, resulting in a sluggish consumer response to the economy. As a result, the industry's growth rate downward is more due to cyclical decline, rather than the structural impact of the electricity business.

The adverse effect of the electric quotient on the traditional department stores is more the subdivision of the channel, which is a reasonable evolution and division of labor. First from the product, the electric dealer more standardized sales, low-value products, and department stores will retain and strengthen the high-end brand category; Secondly, from the function, the electric business more as part of the brand to deal with the past quarter of goods or excessive inventory of access; Consumer groups, the electricity business more face price-sensitive consumers, and general merchandise more for experience-oriented consumers. The outlet of the future department store is to further optimize the brand of commodity category, enhance the value-added of products and services, and focus more on satisfying consumers ' high grade, personalized, one-stop, experience-oriented consumption demand.

NET friend: Electricity merchant price war is popular, what effect does this have on the electric business stock?

Wang Liting: First of all, it needs to be explained that there is no listed company in the current a-share market, and the Chinese electric dealers are currently listed in the United States mainly Dangdang, only goods will and so on. At present, the electrical business is basically a whole category operation, the rapid development of the relative traditional channel of the electric business enterprise is mainly to conform to the price-sensitive consumption demand, and the general and not to improve the present situation of the large losses, which embodies the essence of "private equity subsidy consumer", does not show the cost advantage of the relative traditional channel.

When the competitive equilibrium state is reached, that is, the market will only have 2-3 leading electric business enterprises, some investment such as advertising marketing, logistics warehousing and other costs would be slowed down, and the cost rate will decline under the scale effect. In addition, the pursuit of convenience and quality of the proportion of consumers to upgrade, the future of electric business enterprises still have the hope of profitability.

User: In the face of the impact of the electricity quotient, which traditional department stores do you think is more powerful?

Wang Liting: In the face of the impact of the electrical business, the following characteristics of the department store enterprises have a stronger defensive: first, in the region has a higher market share or control of the department stores or stores, the second is to locate the high-end department stores; third, to provide differentiated, personalized products and services stores; Four is to be able to actively integrate into the community or shopping malls store ; It may be stronger if you can have multiple defenses at the same time.

Netizens: In recent years, the tide of shopping malls is very obvious, this is opportunity or bubble? How to grasp the business enterprise?

Wang Liting: We believe that the supply and demand relationship between different regions, regional differentiation is relatively large, some of the two or three-line cities have bubbles, but most of the Midwest, North-east cities, as well as the suburbs have the opportunity. From our tracking vacancy rate and rent level changes, the second-tier cities in Shenyang, Chengdu, Tianjin and Chongqing commercial real estate bubble has emerged, the first-tier cities in Guangzhou and Beijing supply a little more. The national average vacancy rate is around 7%, but several of the cities mentioned above are close to or exceeding 10%.

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