Li Juan Juan: The five trends of the future development of the electricity merchants in the time immemorial

China Mobile e-commerce market is expected to exceed 48.27 billion yuan in 2012, compared with 2011 growth rate of 321.2%. By 2015, China Mobile's shopping market is expected to exceed 250 billion.

China's E-commerce development in the 20, can be said to be barbaric growth of the 20: Ali Department (Alibaba Group) with the industry initiative, fast to business-to-business, business, Consumer-to-consumer, group buying market full expansion, stable industry leader; the establishment of the Jingdong Mall in 2004, with Low-cost strategy to win six consecutive years over 200% Rapid growth, Tencent, Suning appliances (002024, shares bar), Gome and other enterprises have dabbled in e-commerce.

If the past 20 years is China's rapid development of e-commerce era, then, the future of China's E-commerce can enter the civilized era? In the future, how will China's e-commerce development trend?

Trend One: Market prospects, corporate profitability still have difficulties

E-commerce as a new industry, with the rapid development of the Internet, with its time and Space unlimited and the great convenience of attracting more and more enterprises and practitioners, the future development prospects are still optimistic. China E-commerce Research Center data show that as of June 2012, China's e-commerce market turnover amounted to 3.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.6%. Domestic E-commerce service enterprises up to 38,780, an increase of 8%. E-commerce services enterprises directly employs more than 1.9 million people. Currently, the number of employed persons indirectly driven by electronic commerce has exceeded 14 million.

The rapid development of E-commerce has also been recognized and supported by the state, "national Economic and Social development Twelve-Five plan" clearly put forward, to actively develop e-commerce, improve the E-commerce services for small and medium-sized enterprises. By 2015, turnover amounted to 12 trillion, accounting for 20% of GDP. Premier Wen Jiabao in the 2012 government work report also proposed to actively develop e-commerce, online shopping, seize the strategic opportunity period.

After years of market cultivation, China's online shopping users also increased rapidly. The number of Chinese online shoppers surged from 130 million in 2009 to 200 million in 2011, reaching 214 million in June this year, up 23.7% per cent year-on-year and expected to reach 273 million by the end of 2012. And China's net-purchase penetration rate is only about 40%, far below the 2010 U.S. 64.3% and South Korea's 66% level, the future rise in space, e-commerce prospects are significant.

But one reality that needs to be recognized: China's e-commerce is still in the extensive development stage, the price war in the short term will still be the main means of rapid expansion of electric business enterprises, to fight scale, spell price is still the main characteristics of the current electric business industry, the continuous price war so that the electric business enterprise has been in the state of capital tension.

At the same time, China's logistics industry has developed late, as an important part of the operation of the logistics system is not perfect, which makes the electric business enterprises have to increase the input of the logistics system, coupled with China's imperfect logistics system, electric business enterprises need to invest heavily in the construction of logistics system, the general face of

"Applause not draw, lose money to make a yell" will still exist. Even the rapid expansion of the Boss Jingdong Mall has been at a loss, the current has not been profitable, business model has been more and more questioned. The listed company representative, Dangdang also did not escape the bad luck of the loss.

Trend two: The electric business operation is becoming more and more standardized

The rapid development of electronic commerce has promoted the acceleration of the legislative process of the electric business. After many years of market cultivation and the continuous improvement of China's e-commerce supervision, electric business enterprises and consumers are maturing, the future of China's electronic business operations will become increasingly standardized.

During the two sessions of 2012, e-commerce legislation became a hot topic for NPC deputies. Ministry of Commerce officials said recently that 2012 will gradually introduce a series of rules to regulate the electronic commerce market, including "Network Retail Management Regulations" and "on the protection of online business data Guidance", "online transactions small dispute resolution", will be from market access, credit system construction, consumer rights, Case jurisdiction, Internet intellectual property protection, emerging industry, cross-border transactions, improper behavior of the network, second kill and other network emerging behavior of the nine major aspects of electronic commerce supervision.

This means that China's first e-commerce regulatory legislation has entered the formulation stage. By Jingdong Mall provoked by the 8.15 electricity price war also caused by the Ministry of Commerce, the NDRC and other departments of close attention, and finally for the three appliances in the price war in the irregular behavior, NDRC also ordered its self-examination, rectification. It can be foreseen that with the national regulatory system becoming more and more sound, the future of E-commerce will usher in a better environment for development.

The rational return of the consumers is also promoting the standardization of E-commerce Enterprises. The price of electricity manufacturers in the war on the prices of limited goods, the first price of electricity dealers to reduce prices, competitive network products overlap is not high, poor after-sales service problems so that consumers appear price war fatigue, and increasingly return to shopping rationality.

A poll conducted by Sina revealed that as of 18 o'clock August 18, 2012, the electric dealer 8.15 price war is a publicity stunt with more than 37,000 votes, a ratio of more than 53%, but considered to be genuine only 8.6%.

Return to rational consumers are also increasingly concerned about product quality, the brand of electric business website, logistics and distribution service experience. According to an IRIS consultancy study, 48.4% of users chose to buy online mainly because they were cheap, down 3.4% from 2010. And 45.4% of users choose the shopping site most value the product itself, a 5.7% increase than 2010.

In the future, electrical business enterprises will be more from the logistics construction, standardize internal operation and management, improve after-sales service and so on to improve. At present, Alibaba is planning "cloud logistics" system. Jingdong Mall has been in the country to buy 1200 acres of land used to build a logistics storage platform, has been built in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, such as a logistics center and Jinan, Shenyang, Xi ' an, Nanjing and other two-level logistics center, and since the establishment of the logistics distribution system, launched the "211 Limit Up" Speed distribution services, That is, the day before 11:00 to submit the spot order, served on the date of the night before 11:00 to submit the spot order, the next day 14:00 before delivery. Suning easy to buy, Dangdang, etc. also increase the construction of logistics system.

Trend three: The future is expected to form two big electric Business enterprise group

Benefit from the early start advantage, at present, the field of electrical business is still a single large, whether it is business-to-business, or the company, Consumer-to-consumer, group buying field, Ali Alibaba, Day Cat Mall, Taobao, poly-value, etc. are all the leading position in the industry.

And as China's internet companies, another giant Tencent network has also increased the strategic layout of the field of electrical business. Tencent Network shopping platform QQ Network purchase since the December 12, 2011 0 O'Clock official opening, has been promoted nationwide. Tencent has already had QQ mall, QQ Network shopping, Pat NET, QQ group purchase, its layout and Ali line.

May 18, 2012, Tencent announced the establishment of an independent operator of Tencent Electric Company ECC, and invested 1 billion of dollars to reshape the electric business. Tencent's investment is mainly used in electronic commerce platform user experience upgrade, logistics warehousing and other E-commerce infrastructure construction, new areas of investment mergers and acquisitions.

As one of the largest Internet integrated service providers in China, Tencent's relatively sufficient financial strength, with the social e-business, with the Internet's largest user base size Tencent Network has the potential to convert users into traffic, is expected to become the second largest after the Ali department of Electric Business Group, The formation of the Ali Electric business group and Tencent is the power of the group of two strong hegemony situation.

Trend Four: More cross-border cooperation will be welcomed by the electricity dealers

The electronic commerce relies on the Internet technology, the development becomes a kind of new commercial form, receives from the different industry enterprise's welcome.

On the one hand, many traditional enterprises have net, or independent operation, or with the electric business enterprises, or to the electric business agent company, Traditional enterprises have opened e-commerce channels, now, E-commerce involved in the industry has included 3 C, department stores, cosmetics, clothing, maternal and child supplies and many other industries.

On the other hand, enterprises from different industries are increasingly seeking to realize the business model of new innovation. August 2012, Ping An group chairman Ma, Alibaba Group Chairman Ma Yun, Tencent Board chairman Ma Hua Teng plan to set up joint venture in Shanghai, test water Internet finance. In the traditional sense of "widening sales channels", but also to explore the "virtual property" of the new type of insurance, industry forecasts, if the tripartite cooperation to sell insurance to become a reality, will be opened the financial products of the big screen.

Trend Five: Mobile e-commerce future optimistic

With the popularization of 3G network, Smart mobile phone and other mobile intelligent terminal development, future mobile E-commerce will usher in rapid development.

By July 2012, China's 3G users had reached 184 million, representing a 17.3% percentage of mobile users. 3G development into the accelerated growth phase will promote the rapid development of mobile e-commerce.

According to China E-commerce Research Center statistics, 2011 China Mobile E-commerce transaction size of 11.46 billion, compared with 2010 increase of 416.2%, In the first half of 2012, China Mobile E-commerce market volume reached 18.31 billion, of which the second quarter of the quarterly transactions exceeded the 2011 annual turnover, is expected to be the 2012 annual China Mobile E-commerce market transaction size can exceed 48.27 billion yuan, compared to 2011 growth rate of 321.2%. By 2015, China Mobile's shopping market is expected to exceed 250 billion.

According to Cnnic, December 2011 China Mobile Internet Users scale is 356 million, June 2012, mobile internet users reached 388 million, the proportion of the overall netizen reached 72.2%. By the end of 2012 mobile internet users are expected to reach 433 million people, accounting for the overall user size of the proportion of users will reach 77.4%. Taobao, Beijing-east, Tencent Network, where customers have passed Taobao wireless, mobile phone jingdong, mobile Tencent and mobile phone customers and other client layout mobile E-commerce, and to buy and sell the representative of the independent mobile phone dealers are also growing rapidly.

In the future, the electric business enterprise will further increase for the tablet computer, smartphone mobile business, Nuggets mobile E-commerce.

(The author is a researcher of China Samsung Economic Research Institute)