A once-in-a-century V-reversal

After the economic crisis at the end of last year, countries to adopt a positive bailout policy is leading to non-ferrous metals this year "V"-type reversal of the main reason. 2009 Domestic and foreign metal markets rose sharply, as of November 13, LME three-month copper price has risen from the end of last year's closing price of 3080 U.S. dollars to the top 6730 U.S. dollars this year, the rise of 118.5%, The domestic Shanghai Copper Index also rose from 23914 yuan at the end of last year to the highest 51888 yuan, up 117%.　　At the same time, domestic and foreign aluminum and zinc are mainly upstream, of which LME three months aluminum and zinc prices rose 37% and 94.7% respectively, the domestic Shanghai and Shanghai Zinc Index rose 33.8% and 71.38% respectively. Copper prices at home and abroad plunged more than 50% in the three months after 11 last year. Aluminum and zinc fell by as much as 41% and 37.7%, but this year, copper and zinc to recover all the losses, aluminum also quickly rebound, non-ferrous metals market such a "V" type of explosion is rare in history, with "a century" to describe it is not too.　　Analysis, at the end of last year after the economic crisis in the countries to adopt a positive bailout policy is leading to the "V" of non-ferrous Metals this year the most important reason, of course, under the bailout policy, the fundamental changes have also played a key role in the rise of metal prices.　　The rise in prices has been linked to a positive fiscal and monetary policy in countries that have continued to move up the price of metals for 11 months 2009 years ago. From China, when the economic crisis at the end of last year, the state made an emergency additional 100 billion investment, and launched a 2009-2010-year 4 trillion investment plan, and in February this year launched the top ten industrial policies, China's auto, real estate, home appliances and other industries are subject to tax cuts and loan discounts and the old for new , which began to pick up after March. Notably, China's new loan growth this year has reached 8.9 trillion in the first 10 months, up 144% per cent year-on-year, with only 5 trillion new loans in China for the year 2008. China's money-supply growth continued to expand this year, reaching 29.42% in October, well above 15.02% in the same period last year, as a large number of new loans made the domestic currency more affluent.　　This year's slowdown in China's GDP growth, the money supply beyond the actual market demand, which led to inflation in the domestic market concerns, attracted a lot of investment demand into the non-ferrous metals market, as the main reason for the price rise.　　At the same time, the developed countries have also launched a bailout policy, March 18 The Federal Reserve announced the introduction of quantitative easing monetary policy, opened the market for investors to enter the prologue. The Fed decided to expand the size of the Fed's balance sheet by buying up to $750 billion trillion in institutional mortgage-backed securities, which would buy up to $1.25 trillion trillion this year, and increase the amount of institutional debt purchases by up to $100 billion trillion to $200 billion this year. In addition, in order to improve privateCredit market conditions, the Committee decided to buy up to $300 billion trillion in long-term Treasury bonds over the next six months.　　The US has embarked on a quantitative easing of monetary policy, which is injecting large amounts of cash into the social and financial system, forcing liquidity into financial markets and circulation. Not only the United States, but other countries are also taking quantitative monetary policy, such as the March 11 Bank of England officially announced the 125 billion-pound asset purchase plan, May 7, the European Central Bank announced plans to buy a total of 60 billion euros in asset-backed bonds,　　June 24 A one-year refinancing operation on a scale of € 442.2 billion, the largest capital injection ever. Against the backdrop of central banks printing money, the global money supply has risen sharply, with the US M2 growth of more than 8% per cent, with normal growth below 6% per cent and Japan's money supply rising by more than 6% per cent, with negative M2 in the past.　　In the context of this year's slowing global economic growth, the money supply is increasing, the market is worried that in the recovery of the currency multiplier will lead to inflation, in this expectation, investment funds into the financial and commodity markets, the price of non-ferrous metals continue to provide momentum.　　In addition to the pressure on the US dollar by quantitative easing in the U.S., signs of bottoming in the global economy have led to an increase in investment risk appetite, with funds shifting from dollar assets to commodity markets to support the non-ferrous metals market. Data from March onwards suggest that the worst of the global economy may be over. The country's most sensitive manufacturing index has started to turn upward, with China taking the lead back to more than 50 per cent expansion, and global PMI has entered positive growth by September.　　Not only that, the European consumer Confidence index is also starting to turn back, and there are signs of real estate in the US, with data showing the worst of the world. The great impact of China's factors in the first half of 2009, the global price of non-ferrous metals rose mainly driven by China, of which China's National Reserve Bureau of stockpiling copper, aluminum, zinc and other metals caused market tension, of course, the early production of various varieties is also the main reason.　　The rise in the price of nonferrous metals in China has led to a higher global metal market. In the case of copper, the leader of the Nonferrous metals market, 2009 years ago, the 6-month copper market focused on China's copper imports. Historically, China's imports of refined copper in the past ten years more than 100,000 tons, 200,000 tons of imports in March 2007 only met once. But in the 6 months to 2009 years ago, China's imports of refined copper successively broke record, and in June it reached a record 378,900 tonnes. The first 6 months of China's imports of refined copper reached 1.7824 million tons, an increase of 1.6 times times year-on-year. From the apparent consumption, the first 6 months of Chinese copper consumption growth reached 52.69%.　　China's copper consumption accounted for 1/4 of the world, that is, if China's copper consumption rose 40%, then global copper consumption increased by 10%, so strong consumption led to the market for China's economic upturn expectations, supporting the sharp rise in copper prices. CarefullyAnalysis, the increase in China's copper imports is mainly due to China's large supply of copper scrap, copper consumption instead of copper consumption, and the other countries also increased copper storage copper imports, of course, investment demand has also played a major role. In the first 7 months of this year, China's imports of copper waste is 2.1864 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.14%, if the waste copper for 30% calculation, then reduce the metal volume of 370,000 tons. The reduction in the supply of copper scrap leads to copper raw materials and downstream enterprises to the consumption of copper scrap.　　In addition to halving the import of copper scrap, the domestic copper supply is tight, and 235,000 tonnes of copper in China is an important reason for the large increase in copper imports. From the point of view of aluminum and zinc, national reserve and storage also played a positive role. Among them, the National Reserve from January 14 to March 15 to store 59,000 tons of zinc, from February 25 to April 30 100,000 tons of storage. In less than four months to 159,000 tons of zinc to be hoarded, which was already a large number of production of zinc market has played an immediate role. At that time, 50% mines closed, smelting production decreased by more than 30%, the first 4 months of production only 1.1857 million tons, national storage and store 159,000 tons, the equivalent of the market supply only 1.0267 million tons, compared to the same period in 2008 1.2 million tons decreased 14.4%, and then take into account the time more concentrated , the domestic spot market once appeared the situation of zinc deficiency.　　So is aluminum.　　In the situation of tight supply, China's non-ferrous metals prices began to rise, but the international market because of the financial crisis is difficult to have a good performance, which makes the ratio of non-ferrous metals at home and abroad increase, import profits. In April, spot import profit once reached 6000 yuan per ton, three months copper import profit also reached 2000 yuan, aluminum and zinc import profits are also up to 2000 yuan and 1000 yuan respectively.　　The ratio is favorable to attract a large number of trade buying, China's imports of non-ferrous metals continue to refresh the historical highs, so that the global non-ferrous metal market surplus situation has changed, this point from the LME copper inventory reflected in the changes are obvious. The LME's inventories in Europe and America began to fall after the Asian copper stock was digested. Similarly, China's imports of aluminum and zinc also increased sharply, the first 9 months of aluminum imports up to 1.37 million tons, an increase of 14 times times year-on-year. The import volume of zinc was 600,000 tons, which grew 2.7 times times year-on-year. The increase in China's imports has led to higher prices for international metals.