Rapid recovery is difficult

"Markets, including equities, emerging markets and commodities, have risen too high and too fast, to a large extent another bubble created by the sheer volume of global liquidity." The current market carnival will also be carried out for 6 months, the carnival eventually embarrassed end. There are many reasons to think that the dollar could rebound sharply and that markets could collapse. "New York University economist Norel Rubini" The U.S. economy has not recovered, although some signs of recovery, such as the financial sector has begun to show some positive signals, GDP has begun to show some growth. However, compared to the pre-crisis period, the U.S. economy is still very weak, although we believe that this situation will change in the late next year, but the real recovery in the United States and the world economy will take a long time. "The global economic recovery will take years," said Eric Mass, a professor at the Institute of Social Studies at the Princeton Institute for Advanced Research. Asia will be at the forefront of the economic recovery, followed by the US and Europe. "Dominique, chief executive of the International Monetary Fund", the economic recovery of major economies is still short of stamina, the employment situation is still deteriorating, there is still considerable uncertainty in international financial markets, the world economy cannot recover in a short time. The law of the wave forward tells us that the world economic recovery should be a W-shaped gradient from uppercase to lowercase. "China Everbright (Group) corporation chairman Shuangning" The global economic recovery may lose momentum, a double-dip recession is still a real risk of a substantial threat. It is not yet certain whether the next downturn in the global economy will take place in 2010 or 2011. "George Soros, the founder of the Quantum Fund" the global economy is at a critical point of recovery, the cyclical recovery is the result of inventory adjustment, the cyclical recovery of inventory adjustment generally lasts 12 months, the outlook for global economic growth in the 2012 is still very uncertain. "The global economy has stopped slipping, but the relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy has not improved," said Gong, vice chairman of JPMorgan's China investment Bank. It is hard to say that the era of recovery has come when the crisis comes as a result of the huge sums of money invested and massive nationalisation in the future that could be a factor in preventing a healthy economic recovery. "Deputy Dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Li" because unemployment and other problems remain serious, the world economy currently lacks the basic impetus for comprehensive recovery. There is only a rebound in the global economy, not a recovery. "Zhang, director of the Institute of World Economic and Political Sciences, Cass" I believe that in the next six to 18-24 months, the world will have a V-shaped economic rebound, people will feel the surface of the world are back to normal. "America's first trust chief economist Blaine Wesbery" is a strong lead indicator, pointing to Italy, France, Britain and China growing, while Canada and Germany have an initial expansion signal, with signs of recovery evident in the US, Japan and other Member States and major non-member economies.Economic Cooperation and Development Organization's current economic data show that the impact of the US subprime crisis is weakening, inventories of houses are declining and debt levels in the economies are falling. It seems that the worst of times is indeed over. As the U.S. economy improves further next year, the rapid growth of China's economy, which leads to higher jobs, will accelerate the global economic situation. The global economy will expand in the next few quarters, but not as much as it did from 2001 to 2002. "The father of the euro" Mundell the Chinese economy: Next year is more difficult than this year. "The Chinese economy is still facing challenges, especially in the post-crisis era, which is a big challenge." Now is the time to give China a alarm because it has to deal with this very important point in time. The Chinese government has put forward a lot of measures to stimulate exports, which is a misunderstanding. Where China's risk lies mainly in export support. Such an idea is ineffective because it is likely that such an economy could slow further, making it ineffective in 2010. This slowdown can lead to a threat of social instability. These are worrisome and will affect China's development. "Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Roach" 2010 China's economic development in the form of the former high and low. By the end of the year, central banks should adopt exit strategies, but China is a bright spot for world economic growth, and next year GDP growth of 11% is possible. "Our economy has entered a new stage of growth," said Goldman Sachs managing director and China's chief strategist Deng. Exports are expected to achieve 8%-10% growth next year, and domestic demand is expected to maintain a fairly high growth rate, while inflationary pressures are not obvious, so that next year there will be rapid economic growth and a steady rise in prices. "Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council," next year, China's economic sustainability will not only sustain but also accelerate growth. The contribution of fixed assets investment, consumption and net exports to GDP next year may be 6%, 4% and 0.5% respectively, so GDP growth will reach 10.5% in the year. "Chen Dongki, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute", has not found any factors leading to economic problems, and the overall growth of the Chinese economy is positive. "Guoqing, a professor at Peking University's China Center for Economic Research, said the government will speak first before tightening policy begins, but it is unlikely to raise interest rates or rein in lending until the Chinese New year next February." "The Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai economist Stephen Green" I still do not expect to tighten, at least not until 2010 years ago. However, China has begun to implement its exit strategy, which is to respond to rising private investment and consumption, gradually reducing the level of stimulus. "CLSA China macro strategist Andy Rofovan" before next spring, the overall policy stance will still notChange。 By then, GDP growth was above 10%, consumer price indices and producer price indices were positive, and exports were growing. The government will introduce really tough measures to rein in investment growth and credit expansion. But it's not that far. "Merrill Lynch China economist Lu" I think the financial crisis, the United States because of financial institutions in the rapid depletion of liquidity, and China's financial system is healthy, the main problem is the weakening export demand, so China's early expansion of the credit policy is excessive. Since it's too much, you should quit early. The positive CPI is likely to take place in the first half of next year, when the central bank withdraws from overly accommodative monetary policy to a moderately loose monetary policy and may raise reserve ratios and interest rates. "Liu Shengjun, deputy dean of the China-Europe Lujiazui International Institute of Finance," the two factors of whether the rate hike is the economic heat and the pressure of RMB appreciation. The current situation of these two factors can not be a strong support for People's Bank to make decision to raise interest rate. In addition, the adjustment of deposit reserve ratio and credit control measures will be preceded by an increase in interest rates. China is likely to consider raising interest rates after the US and Europe are expected to raise interest rates. "Eastern Securities Macro strategy analyst Gao Yi" September expenditure data and overall GDP data and our view is broadly consistent. We believe the data make it clear that Beijing is not yet ready to endorse the Chinese central Bank and the CBRC's concerns about excess liquidity and not to tighten policy. "Maguire, the chief economist of Société Générale, Asia Pacific," is sure to lower loan growth next year. The credit growth rate of 40% to 50% per cent this year is exceptional and cannot be replicated; However, credit growth was estimated at more than 20% in 2010. "Li Renjie, president of Societe Generale" from the current trend of development, while China's easing policy has always emphasized the need for a real-world economy, injecting large sums of money directly into the real economy, the dynamic fine-tuning of policies and the timely consideration of gradual exit will be more important as the international inflation outlook and asset bubble risk rise. "Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center," next year's economic temperature is higher than this year, do not rule out next year's monetary policy from moderately loose to a sound or neutral possibility. Lianping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, said the economic recovery at home is the result of expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy. Whether such a policy can be sustained will determine whether China's warming is going to last, and if such monetary policy continues, it would mean a lot of bad debts in the Chinese banking system in 35 years ' time. Loose monetary policy has actually withdrawn and shifted, and next year monetary policy will not be as loose as this year. "There is still no sign of a clear upturn in domestic demand in China," said Xiaonian, a professor at Ceibs, but there are recent data showing better export prospects, in which case foreign demand should provide more supportHold。 That should give Beijing some leeway to tighten policy since early 2010, while still maintaining relatively high growth rates. "Royal Bank strategist Blaine Jackson" after the first quarter of next year, as corporate profits rise, commodity prices rise, and consumer inflation rises, emerging market countries will take austerity policies ahead of developed countries, and the global stimulus to the recession will end. "Citic Investment Securities Limited Liability company Research Department Chief macro-economic researcher Wei Fengchun renminbi is about to appreciate" international capital inflow has elevated China's foreign exchange reserves, so that the renminbi is facing strong appreciation pressure from outside. As the dollar continues to depreciate, the future must be a global liquidity glut, and China's foreign exchange reserves will be further increased. Zuo, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. If the dollar continues to depreciate and other currencies continue to appreciate, the renminbi may also be on a path of appreciation in the future. The extent of the specific appreciation depends on the rise in international commodity prices. The recent devaluation of the renminbi is unlikely. "Chen Bingcai, deputy director of decision Consulting at the National School of Administration," the central bank's word shift shows that the Chinese government is ready to end the renminbi's substantially pegged dollar rate since the middle of 2008. Last year's exchange rate policy could be seen as a very extraordinary period of policy, and it is now time to end it. In the short term, the renminbi is expected to appreciate further, given international pressure and economic fundamentals. "Ding, dean of the University of Foreign Affairs and Economics," The Chinese central bank has hinted at growing pressure on the renminbi, but I think the secretary of Commerce's remarks about the need for a stable renminbi exchange rate would diminish its significance. The central bank is concerned about the recent controversy over hot money inflows from RBS's chief China economist, Simpfendorfer, but the PBoC is unlikely to let its currency appreciate in the short term. "Standard Chartered Bank economist Weili" The central bank this time not to "keep the renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level of basic stability," does not mean that the renminbi will appreciate in the near future, the formation of the renminbi exchange rate mechanism will maintain their own will and ideas. Now that China's foreign trade situation has just improved, a rash revaluation of the renminbi will hurt the Chinese economy. "China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute Dean Tan Yaling" We do not think the renminbi will appreciate soon. We maintain the original forecast that the RMB/USD exchange rate will remain stable for at least the next 6 months, at around 6.8 unless the dollar has a very substantial depreciation against other major currencies during this period. By the middle of 2010, we expect the renminbi/dollar exchange rate to start to appreciate again by the end of 2010 by 6.4 to 6.5. "UBS China chief economist Wang Tao" in the long run, China is in the process of speeding up development, land is increasingly scarce, commercial housing prices have to rise, no one can restrain. House prices continueThe rise suggests there is no oversupply in China's real estate market. "The Ministry of Land and Resources planning Secretary Dong Zuo" We do not believe that the current property market is a turning point, although the recent credit policy and other tightening, but not the nature of the crackdown, the property market is only a first to tidy up, but the probability of the downward price is not big. "First Shanghai Securities Limited market strategist Ye Shangzhi" part of the city's single data changes are not enough to support the market inflection point, the majority of the city's real estate market or upward development trend. "China Real Estate Industry Association vice President Zhu Zhengyi" The current real estate market changes, I think is in accordance with market rules of self-regulation, price rise too fast, fall back is normal. From the land and other leading indicators, also can not reflect the inflection point. "The Development Research Center of the State Council Lio Yingmin" only when the urbanization of more than 70%, the rapid slowdown in bank notes, the peak of the population growth of the three factors will lead to a decline in the real estate market, and for a long time now, China will not have the above three kinds of situation, Therefore, in the 5-8-year period, China's 15 major and medium-sized cities in the housing prices will rise, the increase is expected to double. However, the real estate market still has strong demand, new construction, land reserves and so on, do not rule out housing prices in the short term inflection point, next year, the end of the two quarter, three quarter at the beginning is likely to appear price inflection. "Beijing Normal University Financial Research Center Director Zhong" The future macro-economy still needs real estate, before the recovery is fully realized, the state-related real estate policies, especially some preferential policies will not change much. "Pengfei, director of the Department of Urban and Real Estate Economics, Institute of Social Sciences and Finance of Cass," there is still a certain bubble in the mainland property market, and it is expected that the adjustment period will continue into next year, I believe the overall house price adjustment will not exceed 10%, and the price adjustment should be limited "China's property market has been kidnapped by hot money in the first half of the year," said Qun, senior vice president of Citic Ka Wah Bank and chief economic strategist at China. The real estate market warmed up, to a large extent, hot money in trouble. Because China's real estate market has been a bubble, and hot money is the most favorite bubble. Now the bubble is bigger and the stakes are bigger. If this trend continues, 5-6 years from then, China is likely to have a housing storm similar to the US subprime crisis. "The policy risk may increase next year," Youhuan, deputy director of the Guangdong Institute of Social Sciences. There has been a tightening of the trend, housing prices and investors are the main regulatory targets. While growth and policy coherence make policy unlikely to adjust significantly, once bubbles continue to accumulate, policies may again be the needle that will burst, and markets may face a change in the second half of next year. "Shenzhen World Union real Estate Consultancy Co., Ltd. inflation imminent" massive credit has caused inflation and thus the economic contraction of the hidden danger. I expect the hidden danger toCan appear in the future years. "The National People's Congress Financial Committee deputy director Yin Cheng" year China's CPI will be positive, the first half of next year to reach about 3% growth, inflation may appear in the second half of next year. "Yang Ruilong, dean of Renmin University's School of Economics," facing the pressure of growth and Japan's precedent, the tightening of the global loose monetary policy may be greatly delayed, which means that the inflation risk caused by ample liquidity will become more serious. High inflation is likely to rob the global economy again over the next few years. "Beijing State consulting company analyst Li Mingxu" This year, despite the domestic prices of some hot cities have risen too fast, but throughout the country's real estate market, has not yet appeared overall overheating situation. On this basis, the property market will appear a long period of steady upward development trend. "Shanghai City Kai (Group) Co., Ltd. President Khanda" although the volume of money is increasing, but some commodities still oversupply, such as refrigerators, washing machines are also vigorously promotional, prices are still falling, this situation will not lead to inflation. "National Development and Reform Commission Investment Research Institute researcher, China Investment Association president Zhang Hanya" Although inflation has not yet come, but should pay attention to this problem, because from the chain point of view, whether it is the consumer price index, or the means of production price index, are up the chain. If this is not the case, then inflation may come and certainly not so soon. "Yining analysis and forecast of deputy Director of CPPCC Economic Committee/COMMENT &forecast Foreign Trade" export will face two challenges next year--the rise of RMB appreciation pressure and trade protectionism. "Zhangxiaoji Mining, a former minister of foreign Economic Research at the State Council's Development Research Center," will continue to inject vigor into the global mining market as resources demand flourishes. Mining continues to face huge demand, and mining remains the safest investment area in the world. "The Deputy Minister of Land and Resources Wang real estate" can be sure that the preferential policies are all canceled may be zero, because the economy will still need real estate to continue to contribute to the recovery, but given the impending inflation next year and the high asset prices this year, such as the adverse factors, moderate curb investment speculative demand in the property market, would be listed as a policy objective. "Yang Hongxu Energy", Minister of Integrated Research Department of Shanghai Institute of Real Estate, China for the next few years, the market for lithium batteries will expand rapidly, and 2014 will be 200 times times larger than 2008. "Fuji Economic Research Institute of Oil" Why do I think the future oil prices will continue to go higher? This is caused by the current situation of supply and demand and the change of international oil industry structure. The latter has allowed national oil companies to share the costs of international oil companies. So while there is less oil speculation on the international market, I don't think it will change the trend of higher oil prices., after all, supply and demand relationship is the most fundamental. International oil prices will break 85 dollars/barrels by the end of this year and will break 95 dollars/barrels by the end of next year, Fatih chief economist of the International Energy Agency. Unlike the previous round of price hikes, the rise in oil prices is largely a result of demand growth, which is unlikely to fall sharply after the rally. International oil prices will continue to float at a price of $100/barrel for a long time. "Goldman Sachs investment analyst David Greeley Precious Metals "if the yield on the 10-year US inflation-protected bond remains at its current low, then the price of gold could reach $1200 a troy ounce by the end of the week." "Goldman Sachs" when inflation, gold and silver will play a moderating role. And now gold prices are standing at a historical high, silver is at a historical low point of 70% position, investment in long-term depressed goods, you will have the opportunity to make money. "Quantum Fund founder Rogers