Tao: A rise in the wages of a thrilling jump

Low-wage wages are expected to rise every year for the next 3-4 years, which will lead to a new and historic shift in China's economy, 20–30%. In the United States, an iphone is priced at 499 dollars. Foxconn is the sole foundry of the iphone, and what do you think it earns for each of its iphones?　　8.47 dollars, which includes the full cost of employees ' wages, factory rents, transportation, etc. The story is rewritten as Foxconn's workers ' wages are almost doubled in two months. This year, 27 of China's 31 provinces and cities have raised minimum wages by an average of 22%, and many inland provinces have risen by more than 30%. Of course, the minimum wage does not fully reflect the actual situation of the labour market, but this year the wages of migrant workers rose Laminatiion, should be guaranteed. The author expects that the wages of low-end workers will rise 20–30% every year for the next 3-4 years.　　In 2010, when the global labour market was not working, China's wage rise was definitely a rare sight. The Chinese government has a 180-degree shift in its attitude towards low-end wage policy. In the past, mend to the decline in competitiveness, the government intentionally or unintentionally suppressed the rise in manufacturing wages. Recently, the world has been forcing the renminbi to appreciate. The renminbi has risen and export orders have flowed to third countries, benefiting workers from other countries. That being the case, it would be better to raise wages for their own workers, which would also reduce the trade surplus, but the benefit of Chinese workers, "meat to rot in the pot." The change in the exchange rate of RMB against the dollar is the change of nominal exchange rate, and the increase of production cost, such as wages, is actually the rise of real exchange rate.　　The current nominal exchange rate is a small rise, the real exchange rate is soaring. The soaring wage is disastrous for coastal exporters. In Credit Suisse's latest survey of multinationals, labor costs have risen more than the renminbi has appreciated, becoming the biggest worry for CEOs.　　36% of the CEOs were "extremely worried" about rising labour costs (18% per cent for the yuan's appreciation). In the face of soaring production costs, will foreign capital be moved or relocated? I believe that in the next few years the choice of the production line to the inland provinces of enterprises, will significantly more than leave China. First, in developing countries that compete with China for foreign investment, none of the infrastructure can be as efficient as China's, and transport efficiency, delivery punctuality and labor costs are equally critical. Second, in electronics and other industries, China has developed a huge industrial chain, the cluster effect is very important. If manufacturers leave the industrial chain alone, spare parts supply will face major block. Moreover, China's huge domestic demand market is coveted by all foreign investors.　　So I believe that the majority of foreign companies willing to leave. However, the rise in China's wages is not one-off. Although the peak of the labor supply will only take a few years to come, Lewis's inflection point has arrived. The author estimates that migrant workers in coastal areas will face a 5.008 billion gap each year, behind which is the emergence of employment opportunities in the mainland. The construction project has been carried out inland and the production line has shifted, which has greatly reduced the farmer workers ' work in the coastal provinces.Polarity。 Rising agricultural prices, the abolition of agricultural tax, home farming has become a higher quality of life choice. Therefore, the author believes that the Chinese low-end wage will continue to rise for several years, labor disputes can be straight up.　　This determines that the eventual exodus of manufacturing foreign capital is only a matter of time; the structural shrinkage of China's export industry is only a matter of time. At the same time, China's domestic demand is facing a historic growth opportunity. 2010 will be the first time in 20 years, the share of labor income in national income has risen. The internal shift in the production line has brought about an improvement in employment and income in the inland areas, and a new multiplier effect is being nurtured.　　These are indispensable links in the process of urbanization, and will be the next super factor driving China's economy forward. Of course, the long-term optimistic consumption, does not mean that short-term also optimistic. At present, China's economy is facing transformation, the real estate market is facing adjustment, consumer credit, rural credit development still have a long way to go.　　However, the author believes that the main theme of China's economy in the next 10 years is consumption, not only the existing 500 million urban population consumption, but also the urbanization brought about by the second 500 million consumer consumption. As consumption replaces exports (and, to some extent), China's long-term growth rate (potential substituting) is expected to fall from 10% in the 90 and 10.3% in the past decade to slows. However, the quality of growth will improve.　　By 2020-2030, China's long-term growth rate is expected to fall further back to heading, and the negative effects of population ageing are emerging. Every six or seven years, China's economy will have a thrilling jump: the early 80 's rural reform, the late 80 price entry, the early 90 to attract foreign investment, the transformation of state-owned enterprises in the late 90, the accession to the WTO at the beginning of this century. Most of these top-down structural transformations have been successful, but there have been failures in price reform. In order to promote the transformation of wages, China will carry out a new thrilling jump.