4G is coming. Do we still need 5G?

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This year, China's telecom industry is connected in a good way. First, the approval of the fee is open, then the official call to segment 170, followed by the establishment of the tower Company, and the addition of two pilot cities carrying the number to the Internet... These series of events are lively and contain a strange smell of the revolution, but at the end of the year, I can only refer to these events as "huge sesame seeds, big millet", which is a little high-spirited, it is a bit exaggerated and fully proves that China's telecom industry has no effect this year. In contrast, the construction of a 4G network is regarded as a matter of great interest to the operator. At the very least, they actually spend money. The billboard standing in the center of the city goes straight to the clouds and is magnificent and solemn. In fact, there are no Chinese people in any historical period waiting to see the figure "4", the nickname of the hospital, all intentionally avoided! In addition, in order to compete for the power to speak for the future, wealthy operators have begun to consider tightening their belts. China Mobile announced that it would stop the construction of 2G network base stations, china Telecom no longer has the idea of "going to the countryside for broadband". without exception, they have all the money saved to 4G networks.

"The ideal is full, and the reality is very skinny". It is no longer appropriate to use this network buzzword to summarize China's 4G development: a huge hormone urges operators to build 4G networks as soon as possible, however, what is truly cool is the telecom equipment vendors, but some media are shouting: 4G is a scam, but I believe that although the current 4G is malformed, however, we really cannot call it a scam. According to the law of the development of the telecom industry, 4G practitioners are at best "Doing the right thing at the wrong time ".

2G/3G revolutionary story

Let's call it the 3G era. After all, 3G advertisement brands are coming soon. Looking back at the several times of the telecom industry, from the fixed telephone to the first batch of large regions, from GSM to WCDMA and other 3G systems, there are also some small and messy times such as 2.5g and G, we have to admit that every technological evolution will bring huge changes to ordinary consumers and relevant industry chains. Just as we have come along, we can't help but find that with the maturity of telecom technology, these evolutionary "atomicity" is gradually decreasing, so now, the word "Revolution" appears in the article is always very rare.

The emergence of GSM technology is definitely a milestone in the history of human communication. It is revolutionary and disruptive. The biggest breakthrough in this era is to allow consumers to get rid of the limitations of telephone lines, as mobile communication started, the concept of the 2G era was quickly launched, leading to a sudden rise in the morning. With the explosion of this communication revolution, mobile phone manufacturers such as Motorola and Nokia have risen rapidly until 2006, and I still believe that Nokia will never be broken. In the 2G era, it can be said that the consumer's mobile desire has been given birth to, and once the relevant technology is mature, it immediately shows an explosion; however, the evolution from 2g to 3G did not have a strong revolutionary taste. In fact, around 2006, Chinese communication experts basically believed that 3G may be a scam, but the wording was moderate eight years ago, its name is: the 3G era is just a concept advocated by Telecom Manufacturers in Europe and America to earn money from our operators. However, it turns out that although China's 3G development has encountered some twists and turns, but finally basically completed the infrastructure, but also took the island technology TD-SCDMA, in addition, the iPhone in 2007 was born, immediately to the 3G era to take a small name: mobile Internet era, "network traffic" has also become the core attribute of this era.

In short, from the era of fixed telephone to the 2G era is a real revolution. user needs and technological evolution complement each other and work together. However, the 3G era is difficult in China, after a large-scale publicity period, operators can popularize this concept and form. In addition, thanks to the spring breeze of smart machines, let's call the mobile Internet a revolution, but obviously, the transition between the two eras has been significantly reduced. It seems that we prefer to use mobile phones to access the Internet and watch movies without knowing it.

How is the 4G scam caused by the gap between supply and demand?

As mentioned above, with the maturity of telecom technology, the transition in the future will be more gentle, and there will certainly be situations like 3G marketing ahead of technology and construction ahead of demand, especially in China's special telecommunications environment, the gap between supply and demand will become more serious. As a matter of fact, the "4G scam theory" that has recently become popular is based on this rule, and it may be that only China's telecom operators dare to use taxpayers' money, push fertilizer to a market that is still in the bud. Due to the early deployment of operators, especially the layout that is too advanced in propaganda, it gives consumers and the telecom experts a feeling of being named differently, or, such a special 4G development will inevitably go through several idiom stages, namely: the growth of Miao, the improvement of the snake, the icing on the cake, the charcoal in the snow, and the like...

Apparently, 4G development in China is at the first idiom stage. According to relevant departments, 2014 of the three major operators spent 399 billion of their capital expenditure on 4G network construction, mainly for investment in equipment, Huawei and ZTE have jointly obtained more than 60% of the device share. We are sure that we would like to thank the country for its strong support at the annual summary meeting of the two companies in 2014.

The result is a slow 4G penetration rate. Even China Mobile, which was the first to obtain a license, targets 30 million users at the end of the year and accounts for only 4% of the total number of users, even more sadly, these seemingly advanced users cannot get the expected experience. According to the 4G publicity, "fast" is the most important attribute. It is said that it can be used by consumers to watch high-definition movies. However, due to the lack of relevant applications and supporting software services, making such a high-speed useless, it seems that consumers have bought a gold plate, but they can only use it to add potato chips. What's more, 4G networks are under construction, the base station coverage rate must be less than 2G and 3G. In developed cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, China Mobile cannot completely cover 3G, not to mention that China Mobile's 4G network can only cover the main roads, and signals from many residential areas and office buildings are not covered yet. A Beijing user complained on Weibo that Mobile 4G had no signal in the prosperous core area. For example, there was no signal in the guorui shopping center, but there was a 4G signal when it came out to the street, is it necessary for us to brush Weibo and watch HD movies on the Cold Street?

From the 3G development experience, it takes at least 2 ~ In the past three years, operators should focus on technology and infrastructure development at this stage. At the same time, they should focus on the development of supporting industries rather than marketing and boosting the market, if the poor experience is ruined by the reputation of 4G, the operator will only lose the money!

5G is a pseudo concept.

History has proved that critics have never been able to stop the development of science and technology. Just as a large wave of critics have been cutting down on 4G networks, at the China International Information and Communication exhibition, however, the fifth generation of communication technology has been exhibited in a concise manner. In the 5g promotional film, we can see that its capacity will reach 1000 times that of 4G, the highest theoretical transmission speed can reach 10 Gb per second, which is 100 times faster than the transmission speed in China Mobile advertisements. What is the concept? In our next high-definition movie, even with fiber-optic wired connections, enterprise networks may need at least 15 ~ 20 minutes, the average home network also needs about 50 ~ 60 minutes. If a college student's dormitory dares to get down with this stuff, you have to spend the night! However, according to the theoretical speed of 5g technology, it may take only one second for users to download a high-definition movie.

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The 4G era has arrived. Do we still need 5G? This is a pseudo-problem in itself. In fact, we certainly need it. It is only because the development rate of communication technology in the future may not be able to form a clear framework of the times, it is possible that one day is an era, or an hour is an era, which changes the human communication life with a fragmented evolution, I prefer to refer to the Future Telecom era as the "New Era ".

In this new era of China Telecom, the most important feature that can be imagined is that mobile networks are everywhere. Now, we feel that being able to mount Q and send emails to the mobile Internet is just the most basic requirement. In fact, we do not say it is a mobile phone player or a geek, even ordinary consumers feel that the current mobile network speed is very low. Some netizens make a joke: If the tortoise knows the transmission efficiency of the current mobile network, he will surely think that he is a long-distance runner, in addition, we still need to face the embarrassment of the Blind Zone of the base station coverage, that is, taking a train from Taiyuan to Zhengzhou, it will not be able to be opened for 2/3 of the time, it is almost impossible to talk about advanced emotions such as user experience. In the new era, the speed is naturally faster. Although it does not require a second to download a high-definition, no-code movie, you can also watch the video normally, I don't want to enter Starbucks any more. The first thing is to ask the waiter: What is your Wi-Fi password? In addition, a qualitative change in the network in the new era will naturally give birth to a new industry. This is not a simple category of high-definition video and mobile phone directors. a broader application comes from Iot, 100 billion of the world's massive connections include all consumer products, industrial products, and logistics. At that time, all human actions will be related to the network, at that time, big data will not be big data. It should be "Big Data", and everything can be counted.

It is true that a certain amount of sci-fi novel skills are required to outline the 5G era or the new telecom era, but the greatest inventions in the world are always given priority in novels, I believe that the IOT age will become a reality in a certain historical period in the future. I also believe that future telecom standards will be unified, and mobile networks will be everywhere, featuring high quality, fast, and more importantly, when data becomes the same as air and sunshine, we no longer need to pay expensive fees. (New technology discovery: Kang standing/Wen)

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4G is coming. Do we still need 5G?