An article that thinks house prices will fall in the future

Http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/develop/1/325071.shtml

 

ArticleThe central idea is: not those who support housing prices, but thousands of ordinary people. Because only the bottom-layer public is the leader of the houses purchased by Fuxi. The low income of ordinary people cannot achieve the high rental price that rich people expect. As a result, the rent of a rich house cannot reach the ideal level. A low rental rate makes it impossible for the rich man to make his investment in a short period of time.

 

the real estate price is bound to plummet. This fact cannot be argued. Whether you have a house or no house, this fact will never be changed, and the property bubble expected by the house owner will not continue, it will not be a fact. Please do not make predictions or argue, because my post is the ultimate prediction post.
the two years of economic development in China seem to have brought people an illusion that we are about to enter the post-industrialization age. The general prosperity of the people is an illusion, I believe that the management will also think that this is why we dare to make loans crazy. What kind of real estate bubble is that the real estate bubble in Hong Kong is based on its per capita income of over 20 thousand US $, property prices in Shanghai are driven by Hong Kong investors because Hong Kong residents believe that Hong Kong's Asian Financial Center will be replaced by Shanghai, therefore, the so-called precognition Xianzhi in Hong Kong will go to Shanghai to buy a house and invest in it. They all dream of Li Ka Shing in Shanghai. However, the Hong Kong people's judgment on the form is inaccurate. Hong Kong people are used to the constant hot money flow as the Asian Financial Center. Its asset price bubble can be maintained for a long time. However, it did not think that Shanghai is a mainland China Shanghai. It is not a special administrative region or can develop its own financial policies. Although Shanghai's policies are independent, they will not be separated from the macro-economy atmosphere of the entire mainland. The simplest way is to say that the average wage level in Shanghai is no more than 10 times that in the surrounding area. In a large city, there is no wage income of migrant workers to support rental prices, it is unrealistic to purchase real estate to support real estate prices in Shanghai only by investors in Wenzhou and Hong Kong. As long as Shanghai does not have a policy to prohibit residents from settling in Shanghai in other regions of the mainland, then it is open, and its high prices will force ordinary migrant workers. without the support of working-class employees, the rent level cannot rise, rather than the income source of rent, shanghai's real estate has completely become a consumer goods with high and unexpected incomes. Can zero-sum games bought and sold only between capital owners push up the real estate price in Shanghai? Shanghai and private enterprises that have attracted most of the Yangtze River Delta region to invest. If there is another round of soaring real estate prices in Shanghai, only investors waiting for foreign recognition of the appreciation of the renminbi can invest in Shanghai, I believe that the real estate price in Shanghai will remain at a high position for a long time, But investors' investment behavior requires support from the expected income. In a city with a wage income of no more than 2500 RMB, the investment income is close to zero. In general, no matter how much the central government wants to create Shanghai in Hong Kong, as long as its income from buying fish balls on the streets does not reach 10 thousand yuan per month or more, its income from common worker workers is less, therefore, Shanghai is destined to be an urban city that never fails even with a great bubble. Its failure lies in that it is part of the mainland, and its working income cannot be higher.